WikiProject Elections and Referendums | (Rated List-class) | |||||||||
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Chart Update
Thanks to Gamerperson12345678 for updating the chart while I slept!
I'm about to update the short term chart for the new poll, and updated to last 40 weeks rather than last 20 - between elections the polls are too sparse to make the 20 week chart sensible, and we might as well get that fixed now.
I've also re-instated my long term chart: the short-term chart is the same thing with a different x-axis, so I have to update it to get the short term. Hope this is OK.
Ipsos Mori November 2021
I tried to (again) correct the latest ipsos mori poll to there source data of 50% 42% & 8% as per their data https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2021-12/Ipsos%20MORI%20Scottish%20Political%20Monitor_Data%20tables_November%202021_V1_PUBLIC_0.pdf Unfortunately something seems to have gone wrong when I published the change Stevenxlead (talk) 15:26, 2 December 2021 (UTC)[1]
- Your edit is incorrect. We use the likely to vote figures - these are shown here (52-43 among all likely to vote, 55-45 excluding don't knows). Jmorrison230582 (talk) 15:31, 2 December 2021 (UTC)
References
Latest poll
I cannot find the original source of these statistics in the Daily Record by Savanta ComRes commissioned by The Economist. Is there a reason it has not been added to this wiki article?--Literaturegeek | T@1k? 20:05, 9 March 2022 (UTC)
- I hid this poll because we don't have full figures for it, only the headline figures that exclude don't knows (I think that was 49Y-51N). ComRes haven't added it to their poll archive yet. Jmorrison230582 (talk) 14:14, 10 March 2022 (UTC)
Ipsos MORI poll February 2022
Hi, the question used in the latest Ipsos Mori poll appears nonstandard, asking those questioned “If a referendum were held in Scotland on its constitutional future, would you personally prefer Scotland to vote for or against leaving the UK and becoming an independent country?” instead of the usual “should Scotland become an independent country?”. I was wondering whether this poll should be moved to a separate table to signal the difference in questioning, or whether it is appropriate that it is left in the normal table? GamerPerson12345678 (talk) 22:29, 22 March 2022 (UTC)
- I have added it to the main list with a note saying it is a non-standard question. Jmorrison230582 (talk) 15:03, 26 March 2022 (UTC)
- Polls with non-standard questions are all excluded from the charts. I will take no action to update the charts at present.RERTwiki (talk) 16:12, 27 March 2022 (UTC)
Proposed text update
I think the third paragraph of the text prior to the main table is becoming dated: I don't believe the Holyrood Enquiry is significant or memorable enough compared to the other events. I'd offer this as an alternative, shorter concluding paragraph:
- "Throughout the period, significant events have caused polls to swing sharply. For example the result of the Brexit referendum and the election of Boris Johnson as the UK Prime minister caused sentiment to temporarily move in favour of 'Yes', only to soon move back towards the status quo ante."
I'll leave this a few days to gather comments or alternative suggestions. RERTwiki (talk) 16:24, 15 April 2022 (UTC)
Some weeks later, there being no comments, I've made the edit. RERTwiki (talk) 16:33, 2 May 2022 (UTC)
Re: New para on Demographics
Folks - I don't understand the placement and reasoning behind the new section on Demographics.
For one thing, the inserted data is from 2014 and before. It is far from clear why we would want to insert it now.
Second, it is just out of place where it is. This is a page on Opinion Polling, specifically eschewing polling before the 2014 referendum. Every one of the polls we tabulate is likely to have data attached on demographics. Why are we picking just this (historic) data?
Third, this kind of data is inviting the conclusion that 'demography is destiny', and that because younger people favour 'Yes', then yes will have a majority when the old people die. But that's just wrong: forever and always, older people have been conservative biassed, and younger people become so as they age. The same could easily be true of yes/no voting. It is a spurious talking point to try to elide to a coming 'Yes' majority because of demographics.
At a minimum, a space could be found for this data elsewhere on this page, or even in the page on the 2014 referendum, for the historic data. It's positioning right now is too prominent and unwarranted. My personal vote would be to leave this out unless we are willing to do this properly, and open a section to describe demographics in all the polls tabulated, which frankly I think is a bridge too far.
RERTwiki (talk) 14:07, 27 June 2022 (UTC)
- Agreed, it has more to do with the 2014 referendum than what is in this article and the different attitudes amongst various demographic groups is described in the results section of that article. Jmorrison230582 (talk) 16:05, 27 June 2022 (UTC)
- The section was also taken from the subsample of polling and therefore grossly invalid.
- The only valid, weighted polling on demographics from the 2014 referendum vote is the 2014 Scottish Referendum Study. AlloDoon (talk) 15:33, 11 July 2022 (UTC)
Sample Size of Polls
Every poll recorded on this page has a sample size of over 1000, this has been established as the minimum size of poll to give accurate data with a low level of Margin of error. I notice a poll by Techne Uk with a sample size of 500 has been included, this significantly increase the margin of error and therefore can not be directly compared with all the other polls. Does anyone else share my view that only full polls ie 1000+ should be included? Soosider3 (talk) 14:32, 4 July 2022 (UTC)
- No. There's no requirement to have a sample size of 1,000 to make a representative poll. 500-sample polls are unusual at a national level in the UK (or Scotland), but they are fairly common for constituency polling (e.g. both polls for the 2022 Wakefield by-election had samples of just over 500). The table as it stands takes the correct approach - displaying the figures, but noting that this poll was a little unusual in the way it was compiled. Jmorrison230582 (talk) 15:57, 4 July 2022 (UTC)
- This is a subset and not a full poll.
- All polling on a National level requires 1000+ to be considered reliable that is why every Polling Company uses this as its bench mark. Polling across Wikipedia at this level always shows only 1000+, which is why the Wakefield by election poll would not be included in any page showing national figures.
- Here are examples of this across wikipedia
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Senedd_election
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_United_Kingdom_general_election
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Scottish_Parliament_election
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Scottish_Parliament_election
- Given the wide acceptance of this benchmark across the Polling Industry and across wikipedia I think it is really for you to put forward an argument as to why this practice should now cease and include subsets and sample sizes significantly less than 1000
- I look forward to hearing your point of view, preferably with sources and examples. Soosider3 (talk) 09:49, 6 July 2022 (UTC)
- 1,000 (or more) is the typical sample used for a national opinion poll, but it isn't a necessary condition. There are a few polls cited in the 2014 indyref polling article that had samples of well under 1,000 (two by Angus Reid, and one by ICM in the final week). A smaller sample just means that the margin for error is a bit higher; it doesn't necessarily make it unrepresentative. Jmorrison230582 (talk) 13:58, 6 July 2022 (UTC)
- Thank you for the response, however you do not seem to be accepting the core issue here.
- I recognise that you now have accepted that the Techne poll is not a typical poll, I would remind you again that what you wish to add to this page is not actually a poll but a subset. As stated to you previously BPC has developed the practice that 1000+ is now the 'norm' across the industry, that fact by itself should be enough for you to accept that this is not the correct place for this subset and would ask that you withdraw it from this page, or at least this section of the page.
- I would respectfully suggest that what happened several years ago, on other pages is hardly the strongest of defences especially as they are so few, the page you referred to has well over 100 polls recorded and only 3 or 4 that are significantly below the 1000 response standard, not one of them was a subset. The industry has moved on from 2011, learned from its mistakes and operates to a higher standard than in the past and so should we and so should Wikipedia Soosider3 (talk) 14:21, 6 July 2022 (UTC)
- 1,000 (or more) is the typical sample used for a national opinion poll, but it isn't a necessary condition. There are a few polls cited in the 2014 indyref polling article that had samples of well under 1,000 (two by Angus Reid, and one by ICM in the final week). A smaller sample just means that the margin for error is a bit higher; it doesn't necessarily make it unrepresentative. Jmorrison230582 (talk) 13:58, 6 July 2022 (UTC)
Yougov/These Islands Poll 29-31 March 2022
Have just noticed that this poll uses a mix of the standard and a non standard question, 519 Standard and 510 non standard. I would intend to make a small change to the Notes to reflect this. Soosider3 (talk) 13:42, 8 July 2022 (UTC)
- This poll appears in 2 places on this page, we should be looking at polls only being recorded in one place, as it asks the non standard question Leave/Remain perhaps that is the best section for it. Soosider3 (talk) 14:17, 8 July 2022 (UTC)
- Actually the more I look the more it appears that this submission is very odd. Its the first poll ( i know of) that splits the question on Independence with 2 different Responses, Leave/Remain and Standard Question
- It is recorded on Leave/Remain section showing 35% Leave and 50% Remain, yet shows a sample size of 1029 - when only 510 respondents were asked that question. In the main section it shows figures of 39% to 44% again claiming 1029 respondents while figures relate to only to the 519 respondents that were given the standard question, both are inaccurate and misleading
- To my mind it throws up some issues that we should try to address
- 1 What do we do with any other poll that splits questions in this manner do we
- a) count them as 2 small polls, in which case they would both fall to the sample size not being large enough, industry standard requires 1000+ this is well established practice and can be evidenced across many polling pages on Wikipedia
- b) count it as one poll with note about mixed questions, but this demonstrates the problem that with small polls and variable questions do we actually introduce too many variables and lower the standard and accuracy of the data overall. We effectively have three results from this poll Leave/Remain, standard Question and an amalgamation of both.
- c) Is it reasonable to amalgamate what is effectively 2 different sub polls in this manner, I tend to think it is not acceptable practice
- d) Should we introduce a subsection of the report specifically for such hybrid polls
- Personally I think we should introduce a new section for Hybrid Polling on Independence, it categorises the poll correctly and prevents it from polluting the other polls with less reliable and not directly comparable data.
- I think both entries should be removed as both are inaccurate and misleading and would propose doing so in the next few days Soosider3 (talk) 15:51, 8 July 2022 (UTC)
- Given that both entries have now been corrected to the actual sample size 519 and 510, I would intend to remove both entries as sample size are too small and introduce a significant increase in margin of error. Industry standard across the UK is that 1000+ are required to produce reliable and comparable data Soosider3 (talk) 16:42, 8 July 2022 (UTC)
I would agree with removing this poll from both tables, but not because of sample size. I can't see how the polling firm could have constructed two samples that were both representative of the population within the same set of fieldwork. I think they only did that as a test, to find out whether question wording does make a difference in the results obtained. Jmorrison230582 (talk) 19:37, 8 July 2022 (UTC)
- Thanks for the response, surely this has to be the case for every poll that is substantially below the 1000 samples? That if a poll has less than this it is difficult to make it representative of the whole population. Suspect that splitting the question would more likely have been done at the behest of the client especially as polling companies are very well aware that different questions will get different answers, as does the ordering of the questions and the format of questionnaire. Soosider3 (talk) 10:47, 9 July 2022 (UTC)
Techne UK Poll 29/30 June 2022
There has been ongoing discussion as to the correctness or otherwise of including this poll on this page and especially in the main table. I would welcome others views on this matter as myself and another editor seem to have reached an impasse. This poll is a sub set of 502 taken from a larger poll, as such I don't believe it should be included here. As you are probably aware sample size is crucial in all polling, the British Polling Council has developed across the industry that for all National polling a sample of 1000 produces the best results, from their website "There is no, “minimum”, sample size for a poll which is acceptable, but around one thousand has become the established norm for a nationwide opinion poll in Great Britain." https://www.britishpollingcouncil.org/faqs-by-members-of-the-public/ On this page we have had recent changes where a Yougov poll for These Islands was removed because they were subsets of only 501 and 519 Across wikipedia 1000 has become the acceptable norm for a National poll https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Senedd_election https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_United_Kingdom_general_election https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Scottish_Parliament_election https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Scottish_Parliament_election I believe that this sub set does not match the criteria for being a poll demonstrated across this page, other wiki pages on UK polling and in fact the BPC The old adage about " just because you can do something does not mean we should" and to include this subset lowers teh standard within this page and that would be regrettable. I would welcome views from others as to this issue Soosider3 (talk) 11:04, 9 July 2022 (UTC)
- The poll specifies that it is weighted for Scotland and TechneUK is a member of the British Polling Council. It is not a subsample.
- The only reason not to include the poll is that the sample size is 501, meaning the margin of error is 4% instead of the standard 3%, however this sits within a 95% confidence interval, so I think it should be included with that caveat. AlloDoon (talk) 12:48, 10 July 2022 (UTC)
- Hi thanks for the reply
- I think there are more reasons than just sample size.
- 1/This is not a full poll but rather a subset of a larger poll, this is evident by Techne themselves in the data tables where it clearer identifies that this is a subset of 501 from a bigger report of some 1600 https://www.techneuk.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/R24-UK-2022-7-1-DATA.pdf
- 2/ Techne do appear to be a member of BPC and I have no concerns about the compliance of their full poll
- 3/BPC have long established that a sample size of at least 1000 is required to produce accurate and comparable data
- the larger poll would have been of sufficient size to have confidence in its weighing across a whole range of categories, this can not be said for a subset such as this.
- 4/ Most National polls under BPC have a well established requirement to have a sample size of at least 1000, this is evidenced across a wide range of places, on wikipedia I would ask you to look at these and explain why every one of the polls recorded have a sample size of 1000.
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Senedd_election
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_United_Kingdom_general_election
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Scottish_Parliament_election
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Scottish_Parliament_election
- 5/ In polling as in most statistics 95% accuracy would not be acceptable, or at least be a matter of disappointment that such a margin of error had been allowed to happen, it introduces a significant increase in the margin of error and makes it unsafe to do comparisons with other higher standard results.
- 6/ statistically the increase from less than 3% to 4.4% is a huge increase, it increases the error margin by some 43%, yep the increase from 3% to 4.4% is an increase of 43% in teh margin of error
- 7/ if this entry stands it introduces a drop in standards that could have unexpected consequences, do we now allow subsets or polls with only 500 sample, because that is the benchmark you would lower this page to, that would be a great shame as it has been a reliable source on polling to do with Independence.
- I really do believe this would be a retrograde step, however I can be convinced if a coherent argument can be made for including subsets and/or small sample sizes. The onus is really on you to explain why you believe this departure from established norms is best for this page. Soosider3 (talk) 18:28, 10 July 2022 (UTC)
- We have, you just don't accept the points that have been made. WP:DROPTHESTICK. Jmorrison230582 (talk) 18:40, 10 July 2022 (UTC)
- No you really haven't explain a coherent rationale for including this data. You have expressed a desire but in doing so have ignored the clear factual evidence that you are wrong. Precedence is well established across the industry, we do not treat subsets as polls and 1000 is the industry norm for national polling, the evidence for that is overwhelming.
- The data set of 1642 in the full poll clearly shows that this is a subset of 501, there is no other explanation for it. You are suggesting that this is a full poll within another full poll, that's illogical, inconsistent and nonsensical.
- You have also failed to explain why you wish to abandon accepted practice not just on Wikipedia for National Polling but long established best practice and established norm for the British Polling Council.
- So as I said the onus is on you to explain this change you wish from established practice and norms.
- Regrettably I may have to take this to dispute resolution, I have convinced 2 other editors of teh correctness of my position but seem unable to move you and one other. Soosider3 (talk) 22:07, 10 July 2022 (UTC)
- We have, you just don't accept the points that have been made. WP:DROPTHESTICK. Jmorrison230582 (talk) 18:40, 10 July 2022 (UTC)
- First of all, you claimed that the Techne poll shouldn't be included because they aren't a BPC member. In fact, the BPC website lists Techne as a member. Since then you have insisted that opinion polls must have a sample size of 1,000, even though there is no such requirement. I have also pointed out articles where polls with smaller sample sizes are used, e.g. 2022 Wakefield by-election. Your other argument is that it is a sub-sample of a larger poll, but this is not uncommon either. Firms poll Great Britain as a whole, then boost the Scottish part of the sample to get a representative sample of that population as well. Jmorrison230582 (talk) 05:39, 11 July 2022 (UTC)
- Good Morning
- I fear you may not be focusing on the key matters here, membership of BPC was based on a statement on Techne website, which i linked to, you provided evidence from BPC website and I conceded the point, however my prime focus has been and continues to be the size of the sample and it being a subset, which is clearly at odds with all other national polling.
- You create a false comparison when trying to compare constituency polling for a by election to national polling.
- We seem to be having a discussion based largely on semantics, you say there is no "requirement" for a 1000 of a sample and I argue that the established "norm" across the polling industry is a sample of 1000 for a national poll.
- I ask that you look at this page and ask yourself why almost all the samples for a full poll are 1000 and does a sample of 501 really fit in with this? and then do similar with other national polling across the UK
- So far 5 editors have expressed a view 3 supporting my view and 2 supporting yours.
- Your position is unsustainable, flys in the face of established practice and BPC expectation. Please withdraw this entry Soosider3 (talk) 08:47, 11 July 2022 (UTC)
- First of all, you claimed that the Techne poll shouldn't be included because they aren't a BPC member. In fact, the BPC website lists Techne as a member. Since then you have insisted that opinion polls must have a sample size of 1,000, even though there is no such requirement. I have also pointed out articles where polls with smaller sample sizes are used, e.g. 2022 Wakefield by-election. Your other argument is that it is a sub-sample of a larger poll, but this is not uncommon either. Firms poll Great Britain as a whole, then boost the Scottish part of the sample to get a representative sample of that population as well. Jmorrison230582 (talk) 05:39, 11 July 2022 (UTC)
- Please point out these supposed comments from other users in favour of your position. I can't see any. All I can see is you just droning on about the same poll. Jmorrison230582 (talk) 09:32, 11 July 2022 (UTC)
- See Talk between MSLavender, Mako001 and myself, initially both, correctly pulled me up about my lack of following correct etiquette, after explanation they both were content to go along with my revision.
- Regrettably we seem to have reached an impasse and there is little point in continuing this 'discussion but before I go.
- It is not a good look when someone is unable to support their point of view with a coherent fact based argument, despite mountains of evidence against it, then resorting to petty comments about "droning on" and "boring you"
- I will remove the entry, once again and if reinstated will look to dispute resolution to resolve Soosider3 (talk) 10:36, 11 July 2022 (UTC)
- Where is this discussion? It is not on this page, its archive or your talk page. All I can see is that @HMSLavender: and @Mako001: both warned (diff 1. diff 2) you about removing content without explanation. To say that they were "content to go along with my revision" with your position is a gross misrepresentation of their edits. Jmorrison230582 (talk) 10:49, 11 July 2022 (UTC)
- @Soosider3: - @Jmorrison230582: is quite right.
- As the poll sits within a 7% margin of error, the confidence interval is still above 95% and the poll is valid. TechneUK is a member of the British Polling Council, and therefore they are required to adhere to established practices to publish public opinion polls in the UK. If you want to open this issue to further discussion then please WP:RFC, or otherwise WP:DROPTHESTICK. AlloDoon (talk) 15:23, 11 July 2022 (UTC)
- You complete ignore that this published on this page is not the full poll of 1602 but a subset of only 501. My concern is not with Techne who I am sure perform their tasks professionally, my concern is as said several times. This is not a poll but a subset and as such does not sit with any other polling on this page. That is a sustainable and easily verified fact not opinion
- Could I ask if you would do 2 things, look at this page and ask yourself why there are no other examples of such a small sample, genuinely reflect on this and consider the established norm across the industry, as per BPC. Having done so please explain why you wish to change that long established standard for this entry Soosider3 (talk) 15:36, 11 July 2022 (UTC)
- Where is this discussion? It is not on this page, its archive or your talk page. All I can see is that @HMSLavender: and @Mako001: both warned (diff 1. diff 2) you about removing content without explanation. To say that they were "content to go along with my revision" with your position is a gross misrepresentation of their edits. Jmorrison230582 (talk) 10:49, 11 July 2022 (UTC)
- Please point out these supposed comments from other users in favour of your position. I can't see any. All I can see is you just droning on about the same poll. Jmorrison230582 (talk) 09:32, 11 July 2022 (UTC)
- (unindent) It doesn't matter that it is a sub-sample and has less respondents than a Scotland-only poll. The point is whether the sample used is representative of the Scottish population. My understanding is that it is. Jmorrison230582 (talk) 18:19, 11 July 2022 (UTC)
- We seem to have reached agreement that this is a subset and has less respondents than a Scotland only poll, that in itself is enough for this entry not to appear.
- Again we are playing with words "sample used is representative" any sized sample can be Representative the issue here is the smaller the sample the greater the margin of error. This is why BPC expect 1000 and why this norm is accepted across the Industry, this has established a consistency where it is broadly reasonable to compare Poll to Poll this no longer applies if you introduce a different and substantially lowered standard by using subsets and smaller samples. Soosider3 (talk) 06:48, 12 July 2022 (UTC)
- I notice that Professor John Curtice on his website Whatscotlandthinks.org has not used the Techne data on his Independence Polling tracker, given that Curtice is Chair of BPC I would suggest that is a fairly good indication of how this data is used and viewed by teh professionals.
- https://whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/how-would-you-vote-in-the-in-a-scottish-independence-referendum-if-held-now-ask/
- If the data i snot good enough to be used by Curtice then it should not be good enough for us to use Soosider3 (talk) 06:55, 12 July 2022 (UTC)
- That is interesting. His site include the poll as a UK result, but not as a Scottish result. Looking at the poll tables, they give a detailed breakdown of the UK result, but not the Scottish component. They note that they "oversampled" (interviewed more) people in Scotland, presumably to reduce the margin of error, but it doesn't give any detail as to how the sample was made representative of the Scottish population or electorate (as it did with the UK data). I'm happy to accept his view as a third party opinion. Jmorrison230582 (talk) 07:35, 12 July 2022 (UTC)
- I will say this tentatively but I think we have established common ground here.
- Are we in agreement that Techne is okay to have on as a UK poll but not as a Scotland poll? If so I will not remove entry ( in case I have misunderstood) If we are in agreement can I ask that you remove from Scotland table and by all means add to UK one.
- As someone new to editing Wikipedia this has been a steep learning curve for me, I have learned lots and hopefully will be a little less clumsy in the future Soosider3 (talk) 08:15, 12 July 2022 (UTC)
- That is interesting. His site include the poll as a UK result, but not as a Scottish result. Looking at the poll tables, they give a detailed breakdown of the UK result, but not the Scottish component. They note that they "oversampled" (interviewed more) people in Scotland, presumably to reduce the margin of error, but it doesn't give any detail as to how the sample was made representative of the Scottish population or electorate (as it did with the UK data). I'm happy to accept his view as a third party opinion. Jmorrison230582 (talk) 07:35, 12 July 2022 (UTC)
@Jmorrison230582: The 'oversample' is explained in the poll's methodology notes:
"The planned sample is represented by 1500 interviews, plus 124 over-sampling. The choice of over-sampling was based on the need to have a consistent number of cases in each weighting cell represented by the stratification between region or country and voting behavior in 2019 general elections.
"With regards to the question "Should Scotland be an independent country?", a 374 interviews' oversample has been done in Scotland. The Scottish overall sample is 501 cases."
This confirms the sample was weighted.
Techne UK also stated on their Twitter account that the poll is "Weighted and representative of the population of Scotland."
A number of polls have been missed out from WhatScotlandThinks tracker, for example Ipsos Mori's 9 February poll. I don't see any reason to exclude this poll purely on this basis, unless we equally remove all polls not published on John Curtice's website. AlloDoon (talk) 14:42, 12 July 2022 (UTC)
- For reference, all polls not included on John Curtice's site and likely reason:
- TechneUK 1 July 2022 poll - non-standard margin of error
- Ipsos Mori 9 February 2022 poll - non-standard referendum question
- Find Out Now/Daily Express 30 March 2021 poll - unknown reason
- - Survation 5 October 2020 poll - non-standard referendum question
- Survation 9 October 2019 poll - non-standard referendum question
- Survation 21 March 2019 poll - non-standard referendum question
- Deltapoll 29 August 2018 poll - non-standard referendum question
- YouGov 5 June 2018 poll - non-standard referendum question
- YouGov 16 December 2016 poll - unknown reason
- Missing from wikipedia: 23 April 2021 Poll by Survation & 4 October 2016 BMG poll
- I think there should be consistency, so either keep as is, or have a separate section for non-standard referendum questions and, in this case, margins of error, or remove them entirely. My preference is to keep the current system using notes for any non-standard questions/sample sizes. AlloDoon (talk) 15:08, 12 July 2022 (UTC)
- That is a classic strawman argument, no one suggested for a moment that we emulate Whatscotlandthinks.org it is a shame you seem to have expended so much time and effort constructing this strawman. I don't appreciate you misrepresenting me in that manner. What actually happened was that discussion between 2 editors were beginning to circle and we looked at a third party view to try to give us some perspective to break the circle.
- Interestingly you miss out the key reasons for not including the report in Scottish polling
- 1. It is a subset of a UK wide poll (the UK poll is fine and should be included in that section of this article)
- 2. Every other poll on the Wikipedia article has a sample size of 1000
- 3. I am not aware of any subset included in this Wikipedia article, so why introduce that change now
- 3. Smaller sample inevitably leads to a higher margin of error, that is why BPC has an industry standard across the UK that a 1000 is the norm for polling at a national level. This also allows for a higher confidence level when comparing polling results. Every other poll in this article has a margin of error of less than 3%
- 4. The scale and magnitude of this proposed change in practice cant be covered adequately in Notes, that's fine for comparable small matters but not for such a radically different record.
- 5. The risk of unforeseen consequences in my opinion is high, we would be allowing a precedent that allows subsets and sample sizes of only 500, once you let that genie out the bottle you will not be able to get it back in.
- The correct place for this poll is in the UK section and there should be no place in main article for subsets or sample sizes less than 1000, just a sit has been doing for several years 81.96.97.29 (talk) 07:44, 14 July 2022 (UTC)
There seems reasonable evidence that the Techne poll is appropriately weighted for Scotland, and designed to poll the independence question. The sample size is small, but for those reading this article it is stated clearly. I see no need to set an arbitrary limit to exclude polls which are otherwise in the public domain. Even polls by Non-BPC members are included in the table. The low sample size will appropriately reduce the weight of the poll in the moving averages in the graphs.
We shouldn't complicate things with a separate section for non-standard questions or small polls, the system of notes for anything people want to draw attention to is fine.
I don't think we can just do the same as What Scotland Thinks if they are in the habit of omitting polls.
We should just put the poll back. RERTwiki (talk) 15:19, 12 July 2022 (UTC)
Hyperlinks to data rather than Newspaper articles
I do appreciate that often headline data is available before the data tables have been published, however I notice that many polls hyperlinks are to newspapers articles (which often contain other material and opinions) rather than to available data tables. The proposal is to change this and amend the hyperlink to data on polling companies website ( where available) I believe this is better practice and allows users to delve deeper into the data if they so wish If acceptable I would propose changing these hyperlinks starting with most recent and working backwards I would welcome views from others Soosider3 (talk) 11:10, 9 July 2022 (UTC)
- Yes, that makes sense - the tables are more reliable and in-depth than news articles that just summarise some of the findings. The news articles are often posted in the first instance because they are available first. Jmorrison230582 (talk) 14:59, 9 July 2022 (UTC)
Yougov Times poll 16 to 20 April 2021
While updating hyperlinks to data source rather than newspaper article I came across this poll, it is odd in a few ways. Firstly I am not sure if it is actually a Yougov poll as data seems to have been lifted from The Times webpage, at least the bit before it blanks us non subscribers out, the reference to Yougov in the article is ambiguous and may actually be referring to previous poll. It maybe coincidence but Savanta ComRes have a poll with exactly teh same fieldworl dates. I rather suspect that wires have got crossed. Secondly There is no trace of this poll on the Yougov website Thirdly there is no trace of this poll on whatscotlandthinks.org or on ballotboxscotland.com, both reliable sources of Scottish political polling Fourthly the Undecided 16% have been made up by adding Undecided, will not vote and refused, this is statistically illiterate, but more importantly it hints that these are raw numbers and have not been weighted for likelihood to vote. I suspect the author of entry has quickly added numbers taken from newspaper and just not got back to it. This rather highlights the dangers of adding data straight from newspaper article but also that link to article is no substitute for data source. This entry should be removed as clearly it is not reliable and no corroboration for data is available. Soosider3 (talk) 12:39, 10 July 2022 (UTC)
- No, this suggestion is complete nonsense. The Times is a reliable source, and its link still works. Jmorrison230582 (talk) 12:52, 10 July 2022 (UTC)
- "Secondly There is no trace of this poll on the Yougov website". You couldn't have looked very hard. I found this link after searching the YouGov site for two minutes. I'm concerned that your reaction was to doubt the existence of the poll and suggest its deletion, rather than assume good faith in the other contributors. Jmorrison230582 (talk) 13:00, 10 July 2022 (UTC)
- Agree with Jmorrison. The Times have commissioned many polls with YouGov. AlloDoon (talk) 13:02, 10 July 2022 (UTC)
- Thanks for that, I have been looking at so many data sources today I must have gotten a little addled, I will use your link to up date the hyperlink to the data rather than to the newspaper article.
- One other small alteration is I will reduce the 16% Undecided to the actual 10% in the data set and put a small note to explain that 4% would not vote and 2% refused. Soosider3 (talk) 21:52, 10 July 2022 (UTC)
Request for Comment: Inclusion of Techne UK Poll 29/30 June 2022
Following on from the above discussion, I am requesting comment on whether this poll should be included in the article. AlloDoon (talk) 15:34, 12 July 2022 (UTC)
- That is a classic strawman argument, no one suggested for a moment that we emulate Whatscotlandthinks.org it is a shame you seem to have expended so much time and effort constructing this strawman. I don't appreciate you misrepresenting me in that manner. What actually happened was that discussion between 2 editors were beginning to circle and we looked at a third party view to try to give us some perspective to break the circle.
- Interestingly you miss out the key reasons for not including the report in Scottish polling
- 1. It is a subset of a UK wide poll (the UK poll is fine and should be included in that section of this article)
- 2. Every other poll on the Wikipedia article has a sample size of 1000
- 3. I am not aware of any subset included in this Wikipedia article, so why introduce that change now
- 3. Smaller sample inevitably leads to a higher margin of error, that is why BPC has an industry standard across the UK that a 1000 is the norm for polling at a national level. This also allows for a higher confidence level when comparing polling results. Every other poll in this article has a margin of error of less than 3%
- 4. The scale and magnitude of this proposed change in practice cant be covered adequately in Notes, that's fine for comparable small matters but not for such a radically different record.
- 5. The risk of unforeseen consequences in my opinion is high, we would be allowing a precedent that allows subsets and sample sizes of only 500, once you let that genie out the bottle you will not be able to get it back in.
- The correct place for this poll is in the UK section and there should be no place in main article for subsets or sample sizes less than 1000, just a sit has been doing for several years Soosider3 (talk) 21:06, 12 July 2022 (UTC)
I'm a strong supporter of the idea that we should not include data in this table which is a Scottish subset of a wider poll. The reason for this is that there is no gaurauntee that the Scottish subsample is structured to be representative of Scotland, rather than contributing to an overall structure which is representative of, for example, the UK: we can't get regular Scottish party preferences from the slices of UK data.
However, that's not the case for the Techne poll. Reading the notes on Methodology above in this talk, supplied by JMorrison, it is very clear that the poll is sampled for Scotland and is intended to poll the independence question. Indeed, it would be unbelievably dumb to even ask the independence question if that was not being done.
As regards sample size, I can't find with a quick scan any indication on the BPC website that there is a lower limit on sample size. Indeed there is a statement that uncertainty must be described, which seems to indicate that variable sample sizes are expected. Could you provide any reference supporting the idea that a sample size of 1000 is required? There are many polls published elsewhere, see for example Real Clear Politics, with lower sample sizes.
There is a good reason why the Wikipedia table reports sample sizes: to enable the readers to understand the error bars and determine the significance of a poll result. I am very much in favour of transparency, and allowing the public to see all the data. The alternative is essentially editorialisation by the Wikipedia Editors. In this of all topics, where passions are very high on all sides, any editorialisation, particularly exclusion of basic data, is almost impossible without violating the NPOV policy.
Please can we include this poll, which was intended and structured to answer the independence question, provide links to all the relevant data and methods, and leave the public to judge its significance.RERTwiki (talk) 08:53, 15 July 2022 (UTC)
- FYI there are two Panelbase polls in the table with less than 1000 in the sample, which have been there for some time.RERTwiki (talk) 09:02, 15 July 2022 (UTC)
- Thanks for that, hadn't noticed them before as my trawl of hyperlinks to datasets hasn't got back so far yet.
- My view would be that the Panelbase one of 25/26 June 2016 should be removed as sample size only 626, the other one dated 30/10 to 5/11 2014 should remain as sample size is 982. I also note that out of all this entries on this table there are only 2 under 1000, and one of those only just, also that it is over 6 years old. So perhaps not such a big issue but think we should try to maintain as reasonable and consistent approach as possible. Suggest "rule of thumb" no subsets unless over 1000 and margin of error is consistent with a full poll, and no polls significantly under 1000. I think all the other wee variations re 16/17 years polled, BPC members etc can be highlighted in Notes. Soosider3 (talk) 12:38, 15 July 2022 (UTC)
- Disagree with that, we should reinstate the Techne poll. This is starting to seem like cherry picking. Again, no issue in over 5 years since that poll was released. The general concensus seems to be to have the Techne poll, at least based on @Jmorrison230582:'s earlier comments, myself, RERTwiki and the two users who also reverted your edits. AlloDoon (talk) 00:03, 16 July 2022 (UTC)
- I will point out that seems to be the consensus at the moment which is also based on the convention for using polls on this page. Still open to further discussion in the meantime, however I have reinstated the poll. As I said, we could explore having separate sections for polls which have margins of error over 3%/non-standard referendum questions or changing what polls should be included on the page. I am in favour of the status quo at the moment, that is any valid British Polling Council poll within a 95% confidence interval weighted for the population of Scotland. AlloDoon (talk) 00:07, 16 July 2022 (UTC)
- Adding to the above point, perhaps it is worth adding in a sentence to explain qualifying polls for the article? AlloDoon (talk) 00:08, 16 July 2022 (UTC)
- Not sure about consensus however as you raise convention on this page 1000+ sample has been teh convention for several years and you seem happy enough to ignore that to include a subset, why? Soosider3 (talk) 05:41, 16 July 2022 (UTC)
- For the third time, the poll's methodology notes explicitly state the poll is a representative and weighted sample of the population of Scotland, ie. not a subsample. AlloDoon (talk) 10:30, 16 July 2022 (UTC)
- Jeezo, for the umpteenth time its a subset, the weighting etc does not matter, it remains a subset. Full poll is 1652 of a sample this is 501. The tables clearly show that, there is no other explanation, none, zilch, zero. Its a subset that's pining for the fjords. Additionally at 501 it is about half the size of the polls in this table
- Both these are factual and easily checked
- Just because you want this does not make it sit with established convention on this article or even established practice across the polling industry. So I have several years of convention and the BPC polling standards to support my view. Soosider3 (talk) 11:01, 17 July 2022 (UTC)
- For the third time, the poll's methodology notes explicitly state the poll is a representative and weighted sample of the population of Scotland, ie. not a subsample. AlloDoon (talk) 10:30, 16 July 2022 (UTC)
- Not sure about consensus however as you raise convention on this page 1000+ sample has been teh convention for several years and you seem happy enough to ignore that to include a subset, why? Soosider3 (talk) 05:41, 16 July 2022 (UTC)
Hi Folks. Sorry to have been away from the fun, been away from keyboard, as they say.
There is wording above to state that Techne Oversampled by 374 in Scotland, raising the sample above that of a subset poll. They have also said that the poll is representative of Scotland. It is intended to answer the Independence question for Scotland. They actually asked the question in two different ways, both 'independent country' and 'remain-leave'. That seems to be why the separate poll sizes are low. It also indicates that independence was very much the focus of the poll.
I think it's completely wrong to set an arbitrary cut-off for sample sizes to be included in the table. Apart from raising objections of cherry-picking, we have no authority or expertise to do that. People come here for data, and can make their own minds up about sample size.
This is a highly sensitive subject, and any hint of poorly motivated exclusion of data is wide open to accusations of violating NPOV.
In all honesty I don't see much support for Soosider's position. I think there is consensus that the poll should be reinstated (though the sample size is small...).
Anyone know the best way to proceed in this sort of circumstance?(RERTwiki (talk) 12:59, 25 July 2022 (UTC))
- @RERTwiki: the next step would be posting on either Wikipedia:Reliable sources/Noticeboard or Wikipedia:WikiProject Elections and Referendums asking for outside opinions. Happy to do so if dispute continues. AlloDoon (talk) 13:09, 25 July 2022 (UTC)
I would agree that asking for input and view from reliable sources and projects on elections and referendums appears sensible way to progress. Am happy to do anything I can to support this endeavour
Soosider3 (talk) 18:09, 26 July 2022 (UTC)
- Added to Wikipedia:Reliable sources/Noticeboard AlloDoon (talk) 20:00, 26 July 2022 (UTC)
I'm responding to the RSN RfC here, because it appears the question was not whether the poll is an RS or the agency was reliable, but whether this poll can be used in a particular way. Reading over the entire range of discussions I am going to give an honest recommendation. All of you, some especially more than others, need to brush up on how opinion polling actually works, when done properly (as a reliable agency does). Let me address some particular points brought up repeatedly:
- "It is a subset" – and as has been pointed out, it was weighted properly for that population in extracting that data.
- "a sample size of 1000" – per the article, and per every poll ever, sample sizes in the 500-1500 range are about standard. Gallup is highly unusual in going to 2000.
- "higher margin of error" – The dramatizing of MoE above (it was a 43% increase in MoE!) was entertaining. Doubling the sample size to reduce the MoE by one point is silly if for the same price you could do two regular polls on different dates. If you want a more accurate opinion survey, look for rigorous pollsters and polling aggregators, not higher sample sizes.
- "cant be covered adequately in Notes" – It's an article about polling, so why do details about polling have to only be covered in the notes?
In general to keep in mind: 1) use poll aggregates when possible; 2) use reputable pollsters or those who have had their methodologies reviewed, and don't worry about sample sizes unless the pollster's report says to worry about it; 3) never report table subgroup results unless you know exactly what you are doing and what the pollster was doing... actually, it's SYNTH to do so anyway. SamuelRiv (talk) 04:53, 28 July 2022 (UTC)
Yougov/These Islands poll 29-31 March (again)
Hi. Just noticed the Yougov/TheseIslands polls from the end of March have been excluded from the table: too much else going on!
Last I was aware, the poll was being carried in both the 'independent country' and 'Remain/leave' tables as two distinct polls. I think that's correct, and much better than excluding the polls.
Reading the tables, their methodology was to ask half of respondents at random one or the other question. Hence the odd (519-510) split between the two questions.
Seems to me that a randomly selected half of a representative sample is a representative sample. In any case, these folks are professional statisticians and chose that method, and there is no reason to doubt that they intended the polls to be publishable. We shouldn't be excluding polls unless there is a very good reason to do so.
What are people's thoughts? RERTwiki (talk) 15:51, 26 July 2022 (UTC)
I think it sits better where they are at the moment Soosider3 (talk) 18:12, 26 July 2022 (UTC)
Sorry, I can't see it. If it's there could you point me at it? If your comment is a way to say that the polls should be excluded, could you outline why you think so? (RERTwiki (talk) 09:25, 28 July 2022 (UTC))