Extreme event attribution, also known as attribution science, is a relatively new field of study in meteorology and climate science that tries to measure how ongoing climate change directly affects recent extreme weather events.[1][2][3][4]
Attribution science was first mentioned in a 2011 "State of the Climate" published by the American Meteorological Society which stated that climate change is linked to six extreme weather events that were studied.[2] While extreme weather events have occurred in the past, attribution science aims to determine which such recent events can be explained by or linked to a warming atmosphere and are not simply due to natural variations.[5] German climatologist Friederike Otto further explained that attribution science aims to answer the question, "did climate change play a role" in specific extreme events "within the news time frame—so within two weeks of the event".[6]
Attribution studies generally proceed in four steps: (1) measuring the magnitude and frequency of a given event based on observed data, (2) running computer models to compare with and verify observation data, (3) running the same models on a baseline "Earth" with no climate change, and (4) using statistics to analyze the differences between the second and third steps, thereby measuring the direct effect of climate change on the studied event.[5][6]
Heatwaves are the easiest weather events to attribute.[5] Climate change can affect the intensity and frequency of extreme weather differently, for example the 2010 Russia heat wave was made far more likely but not more intense.[5]
Attribution science may affect climate change litigation, perhaps by increasing lawsuits against companies for causing and governments for not addressing climate change.[7][8]
The World Weather Attribution initiative has attributed the 2021 Western North America heat wave to climate change.[9]
References
- ^ National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (2016). Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change. Washington, D.C.: The National Academies Press. ISBN 978-0-309-38094-2. Retrieved 3 September 2021.
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: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link) - ^ a b Hu, Jane (19 December 2019). "The Decade of Attribution Science". Slate. Retrieved 3 September 2021.
- ^ "The Science Connecting Extreme Weather to Climate Change". Union of Concerned Scientists. Retrieved 3 September 2021.
- ^ Joyce, Christopher (10 December 2018). "Why Scientists Are Talking About Attribution Science And What It Is". NPR. Retrieved 3 September 2021.
- ^ a b c d Zeng, Zubin (25 August 2021). "Is climate change to blame for extreme weather events? Attribution science says yes, for some – here's how it works". The Conversation. Retrieved 3 September 2021.
- ^ a b Sneed, Annie (2 January 2017). "Yes, Some Extreme Weather Can Be Blamed on Climate Change". Scientific American. Retrieved 3 September 2021.
- ^ Harvey, Chelsea (2 January 2018). "Scientists Can Now Blame Individual Natural Disasters on Climate Change". Scientific American. Retrieved 3 September 2021.
- ^ Schiermeier, Quirin (2021-09-08). "Climate science is supporting lawsuits that could help save the world". Nature. 597 (7875): 169–171. doi:10.1038/d41586-021-02424-7.
- ^ "Extreme weather: How is it connected to climate change?". BBC News. 2021-08-09. Retrieved 2021-09-03.