Panjshir conflict | |||||||||
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Part of Afghanistan conflict (1978–present) | |||||||||
![]() Map of land reportedly controlled by the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan (in blue), based around the Panjshir Valley | |||||||||
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Belligerents | |||||||||
Commanders and leaders | |||||||||
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Units involved | |||||||||
Islamic Defence Force of Afghanistan
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Remnants of the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) Various anti-Taliban militias | ||||||||
Strength | |||||||||
60,000 to 260,000 |
2,000–10,000 (Panjshir resistance; estimates)[6]
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Casualties and losses | |||||||||
15 killed, 15 wounded (Taliban claim)[7] | Unknown |
The Panjshir conflict is a conflict between the heavily diminished Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, including the Panjshir resistance, and the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (controlled by the Taliban) on the other. It began on 17 August 2021 following the Fall of Kabul.
Background
The Islamic Republic of Afghanistan exercises de facto control over the Panjshir Valley, which is largely contiguous with Panjshir Province and according to The Week, as of August 2021 is "the only region out of [the] Taliban's hands".[8]
The population of the Panjshir valley consists of a majority of ethnic Tajik people, as opposed to the majority of the Taliban, who are Pashtuns.[4]
The valley is well known for its natural defences. Surrounded by the Hindu Kush mountains, Panjshir never fell to the Soviets during the invasion of the 1980's nor to the Taliban during the civil war of the 1990's.[4]
On 17 August 2021, Amrullah Saleh—citing provisions of the Constitution of Afghanistan—declared himself President of Afghanistan from the Panjshir Valley, and vowed to continue military operations against the Taliban from there.[9] His claim to the presidency was endorsed by Ahmad Massoud and Islamic Republic of Afghanistan Minister of Defence Bismillah Khan Mohammadi along with the Afghan Embassy in Dushanbe.[9][3] At around the same time, remnants of the Afghan National Army began massing in the Panjshir Valley at the urging of Massoud.[8][10] Local civilians also responded to his mobilization calls.[11]
Disposition of forces
Islamic Republic of Afghanistan and Anti-Taliban militias
Prior to the Fall of Kabul, Panjshiris began moving military equipment from surrounding areas, including helicopters and armored vehicles, into Panjshir Province.[12] There, they were joined by commanders and soldiers of the Afghan National Army Commando Corps.[12][13] Most of them regrouped at Baghlan Province's Andarab District before moving to Panjshir after making their escape from Kunduz, Badakhshan, Takhar, and Baghlan.[14] According to a Russian estimate, the disparate Anti-Taliban forces had approximately 7,000 personnel under arms as of mid August 2021.[15] Other estimates place this number as low as 2,000, though Saleh himself claims 10,000 men under arms.[6] By 22 August, Ahmad Massoud claimed to have gathered about 9,000 fighters and at least a "handful of armoured humvees" in the valley.[5]
There are difference between the forces loyal to Saleh and those loyal to Ahmad Massoud, as the former is hardcore anti-Taliban and anti-Pakistani, whereas the latter maintained good relations with Pakistan which was supportive of the Taliban. As a result, Massoud was more willing to negiotiate with the Taliban.[5] By 22 August, the resistance also confirmed that several local militias had begun to fight the Taliban on their own, independent of the Panjshir-based forces.[5]
According to Yasin Zia, the resistance has already secured access to helicopters formerly used by the Afghan military.[16]
Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan
An estimate by the Combating Terrorism Center at the U.S. Military Academy made prior to the Fall of Kabul estimated the strength of the Taliban, throughout the whole of Afghanistan, at 60,000 armed cadre supported by up to 200,000 irregulars.[17] Due to the rapid capitulation of the Afghan National Army, the Taliban have since acquired substantial material of US manufacture, including armored vehicles and combat aircraft.[18]
Timeline
Panjshir Province
As of 17 August, the Panjshir Valley was—according to one observer—"under siege on all sides" but had not come under direct attack.[19] On 18 August, the number of admissions for war injuries was increasing at the Emergency Surgical Centre for War Victims in Anabah in Panjshir.[20][21] By 22 August, Ahmad Massoud's forces were mostly focused on defending Panjshir as well as training.[5]
Parwan Province
On 18 August 2021, local reports from Parwan Province reported that Saleh's forces had taken Charikar from Taliban fighters stationed in the area.[14][22] In addition, there are reports of gunfights taking place near Salang Pass.[23][14] On the following day, videos were released which showcased local fighters with flags of the old, anti-Taliban Northern Alliance parading through the streets of Charikar.[24]
Baghlan Province
On 20 August 2021, anti-Taliban fighters reportedly recaptured Andarab, Puli Hisar and Dih Salah districts in Baghlan Province with the Taliban claiming 15 of its soldiers had been killed, while other sources reported that up to 60 Taliban fighters were killed or injured,[25][26] and two dozen captured. The three districts had reportedly experienced a revolt, led by a local police chief, after Taliban had conducted unpopular house-to-house searches.[27] Bismillah Khan Mohammadi announced the operational success of the districts being recaptured via Twitter.[28]
Audiovisual reports of the events circulated on social media[25] and were reported by Pajhwok Afghan News. Later on the 20th, it was reported that the forces, led by Abdul Hamid Dadgar, had recaptured Andarab, though the Taliban had not yet commented.[29]
A source within the Panjshir resistance consequently confirmed their involvement in the operations in Baghlan Province, and stated that they planned on seizing a northern highway which could allow them to link up with Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.[24] Taliban social media accounts called the counteroffensive a "betrayal" of the amnesty the Taliban had offered.[30] It was reported on 22 August 2021 that Taliban fighters have been sent to the Keshnabad area of Andarab in order to kidnap the children whose parents are a part of anti-Taliban forces.[31]
Resolution
As of August 2021, a negotiated end to the political impasse has been attempted, with Saleh calling for a "peace deal" with the Taliban.[12][32] On 18 August, Mohammad Zahir Aghbar, the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan's ambassador to Tajikistan, indicated the possibility of including the Taliban in a coalition government as a means of diffusing the stalemate.[33]
On 21 August 2021, it was reported that Panjshir representatives were meeting with Abdullah Abdullah and Hamid Karzai, members of the Coordination Council, to "discuss the current situation and ways of providing security to Afghans".[34]
On 22 August 2021, the Russian Embassy in Afghanistan was reportedly asked by a Taliban representative to reach out to Panjshir-based leaders to possible mediate.[35] Meanwhile, resistance spokesman Ali Maisam Nazary informed the Agence France-Presse that Ahmad Massoud's group would prefer a peaceful resolution of the conflict, under the condition that a future government implemented a system of "decentralisation" and "equal rights" across the country.[5]
See also
References
- ^ "'Panjshir stands strong': Afghanistan's last holdout against the Taliban". the Guardian. 18 August 2021. Retrieved 19 August 2021.
- ^ "Anti-Taliban Resistance Takes Back 3 Districts From Insurgents in Afghanistan: Reports". News18. 20 August 2021. Retrieved 20 August 2021.
- ^ a b Kramer, Andrew E. (18 August 2021). "Leaders in Afghanistan's Panjshir Valley defy the Taliban and demand an inclusive government". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 18 August 2021.
- ^ a b c d e Ebbighausen, Rodion (20 August 2021). "Why Afghanistan's Panjshir remains out of Taliban's reach". DW. Retrieved 22 August 2021.
- ^ a b c d e f g h "Afghan resistance ready for conflict but prefers negotiations". France24. 22 August 2021. Retrieved 22 August 2021.
- ^ a b Filseth, Trevor (20 August 2021). "Taliban Takeover: Panjshir Valley Holdouts Offer Peace Deal to Taliban". The National Interest. Retrieved 21 August 2021.
- ^ "Afghan fighters recapture territory from Taliban as pockets of armed resistance emerge across country". news.yahoo.com. Retrieved 22 August 2021.
- ^ a b "An anti-Taliban front forming in Panjshir? Ex top spy Saleh, son of 'Lion of Panjshir' meet at citadel". The Week. 17 August 2021. Archived from the original on 17 August 2021. Retrieved 17 August 2021.
- ^ a b "Panjshir flies flag of resistance again; Amrullah says he is President of Afghanistan". Tribune India. 17 August 2021. Retrieved 17 August 2021.
- ^ "'Northern Alliance' flag hoisted in Panjshir in first resistance against Taliban". Hindustan Times. 17 August 2021. Archived from the original on 17 August 2021. Retrieved 17 August 2021.
- ^ Mehrdad, Ezzatullah; Raghavan, Sudarsan (20 August 2021). "Anti-Taliban fighters claim victories as first stirrings of armed resistance emerge". The Washington Post. Archived from the original on 21 August 2021. Retrieved 21 August 2021.
- ^ a b c Hakemy, Sulaiman (17 August 2021). "Panjshir: The last bastion of anti-Taliban resistance in Afghanistan". The National. Retrieved 17 August 2021.
- ^ "Operations". Northern Alliance: Fighting for a Free Afghanistan. Friends of the Northern Alliance. Retrieved 19 August 2021.
- ^ a b c Roggio, Bill (18 August 2021). "After fall of Kabul, resistance to Taliban emerges in Panjshir". Long War Journal. Retrieved 20 August 2021.
- ^ Vakil, Caroline (20 August 2021). "Russian ambassador: 'There is no alternative to the Taliban in Afghanistan'". The Hill. Retrieved 21 August 2021.
- ^ https://www.theaustralian.com.au/world/taliban-suffer-first-battlefield-loss-since-fall-of-kabul/news-story/3ac62a38a9d8094a057685afe73513e9
- ^ Beale, Jonathan (13 August 2021). "Afghanistan: How the Taliban gained ground so quickly". BBC News. Retrieved 21 August 2021.
- ^ Burns, Robert (17 August 2021). "How $83 Billion Spent on the Afghan Army Ended Up Benefiting the Taliban". Time. Associated Press. Retrieved 21 August 2021.
- ^ Mottram, Linda (17 August 2021). "Resistance and refugees: the Afghan province holding out against the Taliban". Australian Broadcasting Corporation. Archived from the original on 17 August 2021. Retrieved 17 August 2021.
- ^ "Emergency: situation is stabilising in Kabul but clashes continue at the airport". Emergency. 18 August 2021. Archived from the original on 19 August 2021. Retrieved 19 August 2021.
- ^ "Emergency Hospital Says Number of Patients in Panjshir Rising". TOLOnews. 19 August 2021. Archived from the original on 19 August 2021. Retrieved 19 August 2021.
- ^ "Glavin: Afghan resistance gears up for the long, predictable battle ahead". ottawacitizen. Retrieved 20 August 2021.
- ^ "Afghanistan: Can history repeat itself…?". The Financial Express. 20 August 2021. Retrieved 20 August 2021.
- ^ a b Roggio, Bill; Tobin, Andrew (20 August 2021). "Anti-Taliban resistance makes modest gains outside Panjshir". Long War Journal. Retrieved 20 August 2021.
- ^ a b Roche, Darragh (20 August 2021). "Anti-Taliban Resistance Recaptures Multiple Areas as Afghans Fight Back". Newsweek. Archived from the original on 20 August 2021. Retrieved 20 August 2021.
- ^ Raghavan, Sudarsan (20 August 2021). "Anti-Taliban fighters claim victories as first stirrings of armed resistance emerge". Washington Post. Retrieved 20 August 2021.
- ^ Rosenberg, Matthew (21 August 2021). "Resistance fighters drive Taliban from 3 districts in the mountains north of Kabul". New York Times. Retrieved 22 August 2021.
- ^ "'Resistance is alive': Ex-Afghan minister says rebel forces 'recaptured' 3 districts from Taliban". Hindustan Times. 21 August 2021.
- ^ "Anti-Taliban militia take hold of Baghlan province". The Independent. 20 August 2021.
- ^ Ayaz Gul (20 August 2021). "Anti-Taliban Forces Retake Three Northern Afghan Districts". Voice of America.
- ^ https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/british-military-afghans-killed-chaos-kabul-airport-79585368
- ^ Rosenberg, Matthew (18 August 2021). "An old bastion of anti-Taliban sentiment is girding for a new fight". New York Times. Retrieved 18 August 2021.
- ^ "Afghan envoy says hold-out Panjshir province can resist Taliban rule". Reuters. 18 August 2021. Retrieved 18 August 2021.
- ^ Blum, Justin (20 August 2021). "Former Afghan Leaders Meet Taliban: Afghanistan Update". Bloomberg News. Archived from the original on 21 August 2021. Retrieved 21 August 2021.
- ^ Russia set to help Taliban reach political deal with 'resistance' leaders at Panjshir