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538 members of the Electoral College 270 electoral votes needed to win | |||
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The electoral map for the 2024 election, based on populations from the 2020 census | |||
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2024 U.S. presidential election | |
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Democratic Party | |
Republican Party | |
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The 2024 United States presidential election will be the 60th quadrennial presidential election, scheduled for Tuesday, November 5, 2024.[1] It will be the first presidential election after electoral votes are distributed according to the post-2020 census reapportionment. Joe Biden is expected to be the incumbent president at the time of the election, and would be eligible to seek reelection to a second term.[2]
In the United States, general elections follow caucuses and primary elections held by the major parties to determine their nominees. The winner of the 2024 presidential election is scheduled to be inaugurated on January 20, 2025.
Background
Procedure
Article Two of the United States Constitution states that for a person to serve as president, the individual must be a natural-born citizen of the United States, be at least 35 years old, and have been a United States resident for at least 14 years. Candidates for the presidency typically seek the nomination of one of the various political parties of the United States, which is awarded through a process such as a primary election. The primary elections are usually indirect elections where voters cast ballots for a slate of party delegates pledged to a particular candidate. The party's delegates then officially nominate a candidate to run on the party's behalf. The presidential nominee typically chooses a vice presidential running mate to form that party's ticket, which is then ratified by the delegates at the party's convention.
The general election in November is also an indirect election, in which voters cast ballots for a slate of members of the Electoral College; these electors then directly elect the president and vice president.[3] If no candidate receives the minimum 270 electoral votes needed to win the election, a contingent election will be held in which the House of Representatives will select the president from the three candidates who received the most electoral votes, and the Senate will select the vice president from the candidates who received the two highest totals. The presidential election will occur simultaneously with House of Representatives elections, Senate elections, and various state and local-level elections.
Effects of the 2020 census
The election has been the early subject of attention by analysts and commentators, as it will be the first U.S. presidential election to occur after the reapportionment of votes in the United States Electoral College, which will follow the 2020 United States census.[4][5] This realignment of electoral college votes will remain consistent through the 2028 election. Reapportionment will be conducted again after the 2030 United States Census.[6]
The House of Representatives will have redistributed the seats among the 50 states based on the results of the 2020 Census, and the states will conduct a redistricting cycle in 2021 and 2022, where Congressional and state legislative districts will be redrawn. In most states, the governor and the state legislature conduct the redistricting (although some states have bipartisan or nonpartisan redistricting commissions). The party that wins a presidential election often experiences a coattail effect, which helps other candidates of that party win elections.[7] In 2020, although Joe Biden, the Democratic nominee, won the presidential election, the Democratic Party did not flip any state legislature chambers and in fact lost both New Hampshire legislative chambers and the Montana governorship. This will allow the Republican Party to have redistricting control of seats in New Hampshire,[8][9] potentially leading to gerrymandering that will stay in effect until the 2030 census, similar to the REDMAP project after the 2010 Census.[10][11][9]
Campaign issues
COVID-19 pandemic
The COVID-19 pandemic, which, as of June 2021, has killed over 600,000 people in the United States (more than 1 in 550 Americans),[12] has had significant economic and societal effects which could pass on to the 2024 presidential election. The high visibility of governors in fighting the pandemic has been viewed as having given them a boost in possible 2024 contention, in contrast to the significant advantage senators have had in recent cycles.[13][14]
Candidates
Democratic Party
Democrat Joe Biden is the incumbent president, elected for his first term in office in the 2020 election, and has said he intends to run for reelection for a second term in 2024. He is the oldest person to assume the office, at age 78, and would be 82 at the end of his first term and 86 at the end of his second term, if reelected.
Publicly expressed interest
As of June 2021, individuals in this section have expressed an interest in running for president within the previous six months.
- Joe Biden, President of the United States (2021–present); Vice President of the United States (2009–2017); U.S. Senator from Delaware (1973–2009)[15]
Other potential candidates
As of June 2021, the following people have been subjects of speculation about their potential candidacy within the previous six months. Speculation about these other candidates has focused both on the possibility of Joe Biden deciding to not seek re-election,[16] as well as the possibility of a primary challenge to Biden.[17]
- Kamala Harris, Vice President of the United States (2021–present); U.S. Senator from California (2017–2021); candidate for president in 2020[16][18]
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, U.S. Representative from NY-14 (2019–present)[19][17]
Declined to be candidates
The individuals in this section have been the subject of speculation about their possible candidacy, but have publicly denied interest in running.
- Andrew Cuomo, Governor of New York (2011–present); Attorney General of New York (2007–2010); U.S. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development (1997–2001)[20][21]
- Michelle Obama, First Lady of the United States (2009–2017)[22][23][24]
- Bernie Sanders, U.S. Senator from Vermont (2007–present); U.S. Representative from VT-AL (1991–2007); candidate for president in 2020 and 2016[25][26]
- Elizabeth Warren, U.S. Senator from Massachusetts (2013–present); candidate for president in 2020[27][28]
Republican Party
Donald Trump was defeated by Joe Biden in 2020 and was impeached by the House of Representatives. He was acquitted in his second impeachment in 2021 and is currently eligible to run again in the 2024 presidential election. If he decides to run, he would be seeking to become the second president, after Grover Cleveland, to serve two non-consecutive terms, potentially making him both the 45th and 47th president of the United States.[29][30] The last president to run after leaving office was Theodore Roosevelt, who came in second in the 1912 election as the candidate of the Progressive Party, although Herbert Hoover did briefly seek the Republican nomination at national conventions subsequent to his leaving office in 1933.
Publicly expressed interest
As of June 2021, individuals in this section have expressed an interest in running for president within the previous six months.
- Matt Gaetz, U.S. Representative from FL-01 (2017–present)[31]
- Donald Trump, President of the United States (2017–2021); candidate for president in 2020, 2016 and 2000[32]
Other potential candidates
As of June 2021, the following people have been subjects of speculation about their potential candidacy within the previous six months.
- Chris Christie, Governor of New Jersey (2010–2018); candidate for president in 2016[33][34][35]
- Tom Cotton, U.S. Senator from Arkansas (2015–present)[36][37][38]
- Ron DeSantis, Governor of Florida (2019–present); U.S. Representative from FL-06 (2013–2018)[39][40]
- Nikki Haley, United States Ambassador to the United Nations (2017–2018); Governor of South Carolina (2011–2017)[41][42]
- Larry Hogan, Governor of Maryland (2015–present)[43][44]
- Mike Lindell, businessman and CEO of My Pillow[45][46][47]
- Rand Paul, U.S. Senator from Kentucky since 2011; candidate for President in 2016[48][49]
- Mike Pence, Vice President of the United States (2017–2021); Governor of Indiana (2013–2017); U.S. Representative from IN-06 (2001–2013)[50][51]
- Marco Rubio, U.S. Senator from Florida (2011–present); candidate for president in 2016[52][53]
- Rick Scott, U.S. Senator from Florida (2019–present), Governor of Florida (2011–2019)[54][55]
- Donald Trump Jr., businessman and eldest son of former President Trump[56][57]
Declined to be candidates
The individuals in this section have been the subject of speculation about their possible candidacy, but have publicly denied interest in running.
- Tucker Carlson, host of Tucker Carlson Tonight (2016–present) and co-founder of The Daily Caller[58][59]
- Liz Cheney, U.S. Representative from WY-AL (2017–present)[60][61]
- Dan Crenshaw, U.S. Representative from TX-02 (2019–present)[62]
- Joni Ernst, U.S. Senator from Iowa (2015–present)[63][64]
- Newt Gingrich, U.S. Speaker of the House (1995–1999); candidate for president in 2012[65]
- Josh Hawley, U.S. Senator from Missouri (2019–present)[66][67]
- Kristi Noem, Governor of South Dakota (2019–present); U.S. Representative from SD-AL (2011–2019)[68][69]
- Dan Patrick, Lieutenant Governor of Texas (2015–present)[70][71]
- Mike Pompeo, United States Secretary of State (2018–2021); Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (2017–2018)[72][73]
- Tim Scott, U.S. Senator from South Carolina (2013–present)[74][75][76]
- Ivanka Trump, Senior Advisor to the President of the United States (2017–2021); eldest daughter of former President Trump[77][78]
- Scott Walker, Governor of Wisconsin (2011–2019); candidate for president in 2016[79][80]
Independents, other third parties, or party unknown
Publicly expressed interest
As of June 2021, individuals in this section have expressed an interest in running for president within the previous six months.
- Dwayne Johnson, actor and former professional wrestler[81]
- Kanye West rapper, artist, and fashion designer[82]
Primary election polling
Democratic Party
- Nationwide polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden |
Other | Undecided | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Trafalgar Group | Apr 30 – May 6, 2021 | – (LV)[b] | – | 57% | 22%[c] | 15%[d] | |||||||||
Inauguration of Joe Biden | |||||||||||||||
Seven Letter Insight | Nov 10–19, 2020 | ~555 (V)[e] | ± 2.5% | 74% | 28%[f] | – |
- Statewide polling
- Iowa caucuses
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Victory Insights | April 8, 2021 | 600 (V) | – | 63% | 11%[g] | 26% |
- New Hampshire primary
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
University of New Hampshire | Apr 16–20, 2021 | 787 (A) | ±2.2% | 64% | 18%[h] | 17% |
- Nationwide polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Stacey Abrams |
Cory Booker |
Pete Buttigieg |
Andrew Cuomo |
Kamala Harris |
Amy Klobuchar |
Michelle Obama |
Beto O'Rourke |
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez |
Andrew Yang |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
McLaughlin & Associates | May 12–18, 2021 | 459 (LV) | – | 4% | 4% | 6% | 1% | 35% | 3% | 16% | 2% | 7% | 2% | 9%[i] | 13% |
Trafalgar Group | Apr 30 – May 6, 2021 | – (LV)[j] | – | – | – | 9% | – | 41% | 5% | – | 4% | 8% | 3% | 29%[k] | – |
McLaughlin & Associates | Apr 8–13, 2021 | 458 (LV) | – | – | 4% | 5% | 2% | 34% | 4% | 20% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 6%[l] | 12% |
McLaughlin & Associates | Feb 24–28, 2021 | 443 (LV) | – | – | 4% | 7% | 1% | 28% | 3% | 23% | 2% | 8% | 4% | 6%[m] | 14% |
Inauguration of Joe Biden | |||||||||||||||
McLaughlin & Associates | Dec 9–13, 2020 | 445 (LV) | – | – | 3% | 5% | 5% | 25% | 2% | 29% | – | 7% | – | 8%[n] | 18% |
McLaughlin & Associates/Newsmax | Nov 21–23, 2020 | 445 (LV) | ± 3.1% | – | 2% | 6% | 5% | 29% | 2% | 23% | – | 6% | – | 5%[o] | 23% |
2020 presidential election | |||||||||||||||
McLaughlin & Associates | Nov 2–3, 2020 | 461 (LV) | – | – | 2% | 8% | 8% | 18% | – | 25% | – | 6% | – | 6%[p] | 28% |
Léger | Aug 4–7, 2020 | 390 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 6% | 6% | 16% | 21% | 19% | 6% | – | 6% | 9% | 8% | 3%[q] | – |
- Statewide polling
- Iowa caucuses
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Pete Buttigieg |
Kamala Harris |
John Kerry |
Amy Klobuchar |
Michelle Obama |
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez |
Bernie Sanders |
Elizabeth Warren |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Victory Insights | April 8, 2021 | 600 (V) | – | 15% | 28% | 7% | 9% | 12% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 16% |
- New Hampshire primary
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Saint Anselm College | March 4–6, 2021 | 418 (LV) | – | 45% | 26%[r] | 30% |
Republican Party
Nationwide polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Tucker Carlson |
Ted Cruz |
Ron DeSantis |
Nikki Haley |
Josh Hawley |
Larry Hogan |
Mike Pence |
Mike Pompeo |
Mitt Romney |
Marco Rubio |
Tim Scott |
Donald Trump |
Donald Trump Jr. |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
YouGov/Yahoo News | May 24–26, 2021 | 378 (A) | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 65% | – | 19%[s] | 16% |
Quinnipiac | May 18–24, 2021 | ~290 (A)[t] | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 66% | – | 30%[u] | 4% |
McLaughlin & Associates | May 12–18, 2021 | 444 (LV) | – | 1% | 3% | 8% | 5% | – | – | 10% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 57%[v] | – | 7%[w] | 7% |
Echelon Insights[1] | May 14–17, 2021 | 479 (RV) | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 63%[v] | – | 31% | 6% |
Morning Consult/Politico | May 14–17, 2021 | 782 (RV) | ± 2% | – | 4% | 8% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 13% | 1% | 4% | 1% | 2% | 48% | 7% | 9%[x] | – |
YouGov/Yahoo News | May 11–13, 2021 | 348 (A) | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 68% | – | 22%[y] | 10% |
Trafalgar Group | Apr 30 – May 6, 2021 | – (LV)[z] | – | –[v] | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 62% | – | 27%[aa] | 11%[ab] |
Echelon Insights[2] | Apr 16–23, 2021 | 440 (RV) | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 59%[v] | – | 35% | 6% |
McLaughlin & Associates | Apr 8–13, 2021 | 441 (LV) | – | 1% | 3% | 7% | 2% | – | – | 10% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 55%[v] | – | 8%[ac] | 9% |
PEM Management Corporation | Apr 3–7, 2021 | 494 (LV) | – | – | 7% | 9% | 9% | – | – | 6% | – | – | 3% | – | 44% | – | 1%[ad] | – |
Echelon Insights | March 15–21, 2021 | 1,008 (RV) | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 60%[v] | – | 30% | 10% |
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/The Hill[3] | Feb 20 – March 2, 2021 | 1,264 (LV) | ± 2.7% | – | 3% | 7% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 9% | 1% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 51%[v] | - | 3%[ae] | 12% |
– | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 57%[af] | – | 16%[ag] | 27% | ||||
McLaughlin & Associates | Feb 24–28, 2021 | 448 (LV) | – | 1% | 5% | 4% | 3% | – | – | 8% | – | 3% | 1% | – | 54%[v] | – | 9%[ah] | 10% |
Harvard-Harris | Feb 23–25, 2021 | 546 (RV) | – | – | 5% | – | 7% | 2% | – | 18% | – | – | – | 2% | 52%[v] | – | 13%[ai] | – |
Echelon Insights | Feb 12–18, 2021 | 430 (RV) | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 55%[v] | – | 32% | 14% |
Morning Consult/Politico | Feb 14–15, 2021 | 645 (RV) | ± 4% | – | 4% | – | 6% | 1% | 1% | 12% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 54% | 6% | 10%[aj] | – |
Echelon Insights | Jan 20–26, 2021 | – (RV)[ak] | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 48%[v] | – | 40% | 11% |
Léger | Jan 15–17, 2021 | 1,007 (A)[al] | ± 3.09% | – | 6% | 2% | 7% | 1% | 6% | 13% | 2% | 19% | 3% | 3% | 29%[v] | 2% | 6%[am] | – |
Ipsos/Axios | Jan 11–13, 2021 | 334 (A) | ± 5.8% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 57% | – | 41% | 1%[an] |
Morning Consult/Politico | Jan 8–11, 2021 | 702 (RV) | – | – | 7% | – | 6% | 1% | 0% | 18% | 1% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 40% | 6% | 15%[ao] | – |
McLaughlin & Associates | Dec 9–13, 2020 | 442 (LV) | – | 3% | 5% | 1% | 3% | – | – | 11% | 1% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 56% | – | 5%[ap] | 10% |
Fox News | Dec 6–9, 2020 | ~ 413 (RV) | ± 4.5% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 71% | – | 21%[aq] | 8% |
McLaughlin & Associates/Newsmax | Nov 21–23, 2020 | 442 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 1% | 4% | 2% | 4% | – | – | 9% | 1% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 53%[v] | – | 6%[ar] | 15% |
Morning Consult/Politico | Nov 21–23, 2020 | 765 (RV) | ± 2% | – | 4% | – | 4% | 1% | 0% | 12% | – | 4% | 2% | 1% | 53% | 8% | 11%[as] | – |
HarrisX/The Hill | Nov 17–19, 2020 | 599 (RV) | ± 2.26% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 75% | – | 25% | – |
Seven Letter Insight | Nov 10–19, 2020 | ~555 (V)[at] | ± 2.5% | 2% | 6% | – | 7% | 1% | – | 19% | – | – | 4% | 2% | 35% | 11% | 4%[au] | – |
Léger | Nov 13–15, 2020 | 304 (A)[av] | ± 3.09% | 4% | 7% | – | 4% | – | – | 22% | 2% | 8% | 5% | – | 45%[v] | – | 5%[aw] | – |
YouGov/Washington Examiner | October 30, 2020 | – (RV)[ax] | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 38% | – | 43%[ay] | – |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Tucker Carlson |
Ted Cruz |
Ron DeSantis |
Nikki Haley |
Josh Hawley |
Larry Hogan |
Mike Pence |
Mike Pompeo |
Mitt Romney |
Marco Rubio |
Tim Scott |
Donald Trump Jr. |
Other | Undecided | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
McLaughlin & Associates | May 12–18, 2021 | 444 (LV) | – | 1% | 12% | 18% | 5% | – | – | 19% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 13% | 13%[az] | 12% | ||||||||
Echelon Insights[4] | May 14–17, 2021 | 479 (RV) | – | 2% | 9% | 22% | 5% | 1% | 0%[ba] | 14% | 1% | 4% | 1% | 3% | 6% | 9%[bb] | 19% | ||||||||
Trafalgar Group | Apr 30 – May 6, 2021 | – (LV)[bc] | – | – | 15% | 35% | 6% | 1% | – | 10% | – | 10% | – | – | – | 21%[bd] | – | ||||||||
Echelon Insights[5] | Apr 16–23, 2021 | 440 (RV) | - | 2% | 8% | 20% | 6% | 1% | 0%[be] | 16% | 1% | 4% | 2% | 0%[bf] | 9% | 3%[bg] | 28% | ||||||||
McLaughlin & Associates | Apr 8–13, 2021 | 441 (LV) | - | 3% | 10% | 14% | 3% | – | – | 19% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 15% | 13%[bh] | 14% | ||||||||
Echelon Insights | March 15–21, 2021 | 1,008 (RV) | – | 4% | 5% | 17% | 4% | – | – | 16% | 4% | 3% | 2% | – | 3% | 7%[bi] | 35% | ||||||||
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/The Hill[6] | Feb 20 – March 2, 2021 | 1,264 (LV) | ± 2.7% | – | 13% | 17% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 19% | 4% | 5% | 4% | 1% | – | 7%[bj] | 20% | ||||||||
McLaughlin & Associates | Feb 24–28, 2021 | 448 (LV) | - | 1% | 9% | 9% | 5% | – | – | 15% | – | 6% | 2% | – | 21% | 16%[bk] | 17% | ||||||||
RMG Research/Just the News | Feb 25–27, 2021 | 363 (RV) | – | 8% | 18% | 21% | 10% | 2% | – | – | 9% | – | – | – | – | 33%[bl] | – | ||||||||
Harvard-Harris | Feb 23–25, 2021 | 546 (RV) | – | – | 16% | – | 10% | 6% | – | 41% | – | – | – | 7% | – | 19%[bm] | – | ||||||||
Echelon Insights | Feb 12–18, 2021 | 430 (RV) | – | 1% | 10% | 8% | 6% | ≤1% | 1% | 21% | 1% | 4% | ≤1% | ≤1% | 8% | 12%[bn] | 26% | ||||||||
Echelon Insights | Jan 20–26, 2021 | – (RV)[bo] | – | 2% | 8% | 2% | 9% | 0% | 0% | 21% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 10% | 10%[bp] | 30% | ||||||||
Inauguration of Joe Biden | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Léger | Jan 15–17, 2021 | 1,007 (A)[bq] | ± 3.09% | – | 9% | 3% | 8% | 2% | 7% | 22% | 3% | 20% | 4% | 3% | 11% | 8%[br] | – | ||||||||
McLaughlin & Associates/Newsmax | Nov 21–23, 2020 | 442 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 1% | 7% | 2% | 6% | – | – | 20% | 1% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 20% | 13%[bs] | 22% | ||||||||
Léger | Nov 13–15, 2020 | 304 (A)[bt] | ± 3.09% | 6% | 14% | – | 6% | – | – | 44% | 3% | 11% | 6% | – | – | 7%[bu] | – | ||||||||
2020 presidential election | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
McLaughlin & Associates | Nov 2–3, 2020 | 449 (LV) | – | 2% | 5% | 2% | 8% | – | – | 30% | – | 5% | 2% | 1% | 20% | 5%[bv] | 21% | ||||||||
Echelon Insights | Aug 14–18, 2020 | 423 (LV) | – | 2% | 4% | – | 7% | 0% | 1% | 26% | – | – | 5% | 1% | 12% | 11%[bw] | 29% | ||||||||
Léger | Aug 4–7, 2020 | 309 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 7% | 8% | – | 11% | – | – | 31% | 3% | 9% | 5% | – | 17% | 9%[bx] | – |
Statewide polling
Florida primary
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Ron DeSantis |
Marco Rubio |
Rick Scott |
Undecided | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates | Feb 15–17, 2021 | 304 (LV) | – | 64% | 12% | 10% | 14% | ||||||||
Inauguration of Joe Biden | |||||||||||||||
2020 presidential election | |||||||||||||||
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/News4JAX | July 16–18, 2019 | 280 (LV) | – | 37% | 26% | 18% | 19% |
Georgia primary
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Chris Christie |
Ted Cruz |
Nikki Haley |
Mike Pence |
Mitt Romney |
Marco Rubio |
Donald Trump |
Other | Undecided | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Trafalgar Group/InsiderAdvantage | March 7–9, 2021 | – (LV)[by] | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 70% | 18%[bz] | 12% | |||||
Inauguration of Joe Biden | |||||||||||||||||
University of Nevada/BUSR | December 30, 2020 – January 3, 2021 | 209 (LV) | ± 7% | 1% | 5% | 3% | – | 2% | 3% | 73%[v] | 2% | – | |||||
1% | 15% | 8% | 36% | 6% | 3% | –[ca] | 7% | 24% |
Iowa caucuses
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Ted Cruz |
Ron DeSantis |
Nikki Haley |
Kristi Noem |
Mike Pence |
Mike Pompeo |
Donald Trump |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Victory Insights | Released March 14, 2021 | – (LV)[cb] | – | 4% | 4% | 6% | 2% | 8% | 2% | 61%[v] | 10%[cc] | 3% |
16% | 20% | 10% | 6% | 19% | 6% | –[ca] | 12%[cd] | 6% |
Maine primary
Maine's 2nd congressional district
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Ted Cruz |
Nikki Haley |
Mike Pence |
Marco Rubio |
Ivanka Trump |
Donald Trump Jr. |
Other | Undecided | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Redrawing of congressional districts after the 2020 redistricting cycle | |||||||||||||||
Inauguration of Joe Biden | |||||||||||||||
2020 presidential election | |||||||||||||||
SurveyUSA / FairVote | Jun 30 – July 6, 2020 | 604 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 12% | 12% | 30% | 6% | 7% | 11% | – | 21% |
Missouri primary
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Josh Hawley |
Mike Pence |
Ivanka Trump |
Undecided | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Inauguration of Joe Biden | |||||||||||||||
Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout | Dec 2–3, 2020 | 840 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 29% | 32% | 13% | 26% |
New Hampshire primary
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Tucker Carlson |
Tom Cotton |
Ted Cruz |
Ron DeSantis |
Nikki Haley |
Kristi Noem |
Mike Pence |
Mike Pompeo |
Mitt Romney |
Marco Rubio |
Tim Scott |
Donald Trump |
Donald Trump Jr. |
Other | Undecided | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
University of New Hampshire | Apr 16–20, 2021 | 787 (A) | ±2.2% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 59% | – | 34%[ce] | 7% | |||
University of New Hampshire | Mar 18–22, 2021 | 703 (A) | ±2.3% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 66% | – | 31%[cf] | 3% | |||
Victory Insights | Mar 5–11, 2021 | – (LV) | – | – | – | 2% | 5% | 4% | 0% | 6% | 0% | 8% | – | – | 62%[v] | – | – | – | |||
400 (RV) | – | – | – | 1% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 6% | 0% | 13% | – | – | 52%[v] | – | – | – | |||||
– (LV) | – | – | – | 12% | 25% | 7% | 1% | 20% | 4% | 11% | – | – | –[ca] | – | – | – | |||||
400 (RV) | – | – | – | 10% | 21% | 7% | 1% | 18% | 3% | 15% | – | – | –[ca] | – | – | – | |||||
University of New Hampshire | Feb 18–22, 2021 | 764 (A) | ±2.3% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 58% | – | 36%[cg] | 7% | |||
University of New Hampshire | Jan 21–25, 2021 | 804 (A) | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 47% | – | 45%[ch] | 8% | |||
Inauguration of Joe Biden | |||||||||||||||||||||
Praecones Analytica/NH Journal | Nov 30 – December 2, 2020 | 624 (RV) | ± 4% | 1% | 2% | 4% | – | 7% | – | 6% | – | 7% | 2% | 2% | 57%[v] | 3% | – | 10% | |||
4% | 6% | 10% | – | 12% | – | 25% | – | 8% | 4% | 3% | –[ca] | 14% | – | 14% | |||||||
University of New Hampshire | Nov 19–23, 2020 | 533 (RV) | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 73% | – | 22%[ci] | 5% |
North Carolina primary
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Ted Cruz |
Nikki Haley |
Mike Pence |
Mitt Romney |
Marco Rubio |
Donald Trump |
Other | Undecided | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Inauguration of Joe Biden | ||||||||||||||||
University of Nevada/BUSR | Nov 30 – December 2, 2020 | 221 (RV) | ± 7% | 3% | 6% | – | 3% | 2% | 76%[v] | 5% | 6% | |||||
9% | 9% | 48% | 9% | 3% | –[ca] | 4% | 18% |
Oklahoma primary
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Amber Integrated | March 26–28, 2021 | 261 (RV) | – | 71% | 22%[cj] | 7% |
South Carolina primary
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Trafalgar (R) | Mar 25–29, 2021 | 1,014 (LV) | ± 2.99% | 64% | 11%[ck] | 25%[cl] |
General election polling
Nationwide opinion polling
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
Poll source | Date | Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Undecided | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
YouGov/Yahoo News | May 24–26, 2021 | 1,588 (A) | – | 46% | 36% | 18% | 10% |
YouGov/Yahoo News | May 11–13, 2021 | 1,561 (A) | – | 48% | 36% | 16% | 12% |
Ipsos/Reuters | April 12–16, 2021 | 1,106 (A) | – | 45% | 28% | 27% | 17% |
PEM Management Corporation | Apr 3–7, 2021 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 46% | 42% | 12% | 4% |
Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis
Poll source | Date | Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Undecided | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Echelon Insights | Apr 16–23, 2021 | 1,043 (RV) | – | 45% | 28% | 27% | 17% |
Ipsos/Reuters | April 12–16, 2021 | 1,105 (A) | – | 41% | 25% | 34% | 16% |
Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley
Poll source | Date | Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Nikki Haley Republican |
Undecided | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ipsos/Reuters | April 12–16, 2021 | 1,107 (A) | – | 44% | 19% | 37% | 25% |
Joe Biden vs. Ted Cruz
Poll source | Date | Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Ted Cruz Republican |
Undecided | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ipsos/Reuters | April 12–16, 2021 | 1,105 (A) | – | 46% | 24% | 30% | 22% |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
Poll source | Date | Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Undecided | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
McLaughlin & Associates | May 12–18, 2021 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 45% | 49% | 6% | 4% |
Kamala Harris vs. Ron DeSantis
Poll source | Date | Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Undecided | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Echelon Insights | Apr 16–23, 2021 | 1,043 (RV) | – | 43% | 31% | 26% | 12% |
Statewide opinion polling
Missouri
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout | April 21–22, 2021 | 933 (LV) | – | 53% | 38% | 9% | 15% |
Timeline
See also
Notes
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ Democratic subsample of full sample of 1,574 likely voters
- ^ "Unlikely or very unlikely to vote for Biden" as opposed to "Absolute will or likely to vote for Biden" with 22%; Would not vote with 6%
- ^ "Consider voting for Biden" with 8%; Undecided with 7%
- ^ 37% of the full sample of 1,500 2020 general election voters
- ^ "Biden should step down after one term" with 28%
- ^ "Someone else" with 11%
- ^ 18% do not want Biden run in the 2024 presidential election
- ^ Tim Kaine, Gavin Newsom and Deval Patrick with 2%; Kirsten Gillibrand, John Hickenlooper and Ilhan Omar with 1%
- ^ Democratic subsample of full sample of 1,574 likely voters
- ^ "Someone else" with 26%; Julian Castro with 2%; John Bel Edwards with 1%
- ^ Kirsten Gillibrand, John Hickenlooper and Gavin Newsom with 2%; Tim Kaine, Ilhan Omar, and Deval Patrick with 1%
- ^ John Hickenlooper with 2%; Tim Kaine, Kirsten Gillibrand, Ilhan Omar, and Deval Patrick with 1%; Gavin Newsom with 0%
- ^ John Hickenlooper with 3%; Tim Kaine with 2%; Kirsten Gillibrand, Ilhan Omar and Deval Patrick with 1%
- ^ Kirsten Gillibrand, John Hickenlooper, Tim Kaine, Ilhan Omar and Deval Patrick with 1%
- ^ John Hickenlooper with 3%; Kirsten Gillibrand, Tim Kaine and Deval Patrick with 1%
- ^ Kirsten Gillibrand with 3%
- ^ "If Joe Biden decides not to run for re-election, someone else" with 26%
- ^ "Trump should not run again in 2024" as opposed to "Trump should run again in 2024" with 19%
- ^ 22% of a full sample of 1,316 adults
- ^ "Do not want Trump to run" as opposed to "want Trump to run" with 30%
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t Standard VI response
- ^ Candace Owens with 3%; John Kasich, Liz Cheney, Rick Scott, and Kristi Noem with 1%; Tom Cotton with 0%
- ^ Would not vote with 4%; "Someone else" with 2%; Liz Cheney and Kristi Noem with 1%; Rick Scott with 0%
- ^ "Trump should not run again in 2024" as opposed to "Trump should run again in 2024" with 22%
- ^ Republican subsample of total sample of 1574 likely voters
- ^ "Unlikely or very unlikely to vote for Trump" as opposed to "Absolute will or likely to vote for Trump" with 24%; Would not vote with 3%
- ^ "Consider voting for Trump" with 8%; Undecided with 4%
- ^ John Kasich with 3%; Candace Owens with 2%; Tom Cotton, Rick Scott with 1%; Kristi Noem with 0%
- ^ Kristi Noem with 1%
- ^ Tom Cotton and Kristi Noem with 1%; Chris Christie and Rick Scott with 0%
- ^ On whether voters thought they'd support a Trump primary campaign if he ran
- ^ "Would definitely not vote for Trump" with 16%
- ^ Candace Owens with 3%; Tom Cotton and John Kasich with 2%; Kristi Noem and Tim Scott with 1%; Rick Scott with 0%
- ^ "Someone else" with 12%; Tom Cotton with 1%
- ^ Would not vote with 5%; "Someone else" with 3%; Tom Cotton and Kristi Noem with 1%; Rick Scott with 0%
- ^ GOP and GOP-leaning subsample of a full sample of 1,006 registered voters
- ^ Among all adults (no Republican crosstab published). The same pollster showed 25% for Trump and 19% for Romney in November, when taking into account all voters and not only Republicans.[83]
- ^ Ben Sasse with 3%; Rick Scott with 2%; Ivanka Trump with 1%
- ^ Listed as "Skipped"
- ^ Would not vote with 6%; "Someone else" with 5%; Kristi Noem with 2%; Tom Cotton and Rick Scott with 1%
- ^ John Kasich and Kristi Noem with 2%; Tom Cotton with 1%; Rick Scott with 0%
- ^ "Would not like to see Trump run for president in 2024" with 21%
- ^ John Kasich with 3%; Tom Cotton, Kristi Noem and Rick Scott with 1%
- ^ Would not vote with 5%; "Someone else" with 3%; Kristi Noem and Rick Scott with 1%; Charlie Baker with 0%
- ^ 37% of the full sample of 1,500 2020 general election voters
- ^ Ivanka Trump with 2%; Tom Cotton and Ben Sasse with 1%
- ^ Among 304 republican adults as opposed to all adults
- ^ John Kasich and Rick Scott with 2%; Rick Santorum with 1%
- ^ Republican subsample of 1,200 registered voters
- ^ Respondents who think Trump should do something other than running for president in 2024 with 43%
- ^ Candace Owens with 5%; Ivanka Trump with 3%; John Kasich with 2%; Liz Cheney, Tom Cotton, and Kristi Noem with 1%; Rick Scott with 0%
- ^ No voters
- ^ Liz Cheney with 3%; Greg Abbott, Tom Cotton, Kristi Noem, Ben Sasse and "Someone else" with 1%; Chris Christie and Rick Scott with 0%; Dave Portnoy with no voters
- ^ Republican subsample of total sample of 1574 likely voters
- ^ "Someone else" with 19%; Kristi Noem and Ben Sasse with 1%
- ^ No voters
- ^ No voters
- ^ Kristi Noem and "Someone else" with 1%; Greg Abbott, Dave Portnoy and Rick Scott with 0%; Tom Cotton and Ben Sasse with no voters
- ^ Candace Owens with 4%; Ivanka Trump with 3%; Tom Cotton, John Kasich with 2%; Rick Scott and Kristi Noem with 1%
- ^ Greg Abbott with 2%; “Someone else,” Tom Cotton, Tim Scott, Kristi Noem, Ben Sasse, Rick Scott, Josh Hawley, and Dave Portnoy with 1% or less
- ^ Kristi Noem with 4%; Chris Christie, Tom Cotton and Rick Scott with 1%
- ^ Candace Owens with 4%; Ivanka Trump with 3%; Tom Cotton, John Kasich, Kristi Noem, and Tim Scott with 2%; Rick Scott with 1%
- ^ "Other" with 21%; Tom Cotton and Kristi Noem with 4%; Greg Abbott and Devin Nunes with 2%
- ^ "Someone else" with 16%; Tom Cotton with 3%
- ^ Dan Crenshaw, Kristi Noem, Ben Sasse and "Someone else" with 2%; Tom Cotton, John Kasich, Rand Paul with 1%; Greg Abbott, Dave Portnoy, and Elise Stefanik with 1% or less
- ^ GOP and GOP-leaning subsample of a full sample of 1,006 registered voters
- ^ Rand Paul with 3%; John Kasich and "Someone else" with 2%; Dan Crenshaw and Tom Cotton with 1%; Greg Abbott, Larry Hogan, Ben Sasse and Elise Stefanik with 0%
- ^ Among all adults (no Republican crosstab published). The same pollster showed 25% for Trump and 19% for Romney in November, when taking into account all voters and not only Republicans.[84]
- ^ Ben Sasse and Ivanka Trump with 3%; Rick Scott with 2%
- ^ Ivanka Trump with 4%; John Kasich with 3%; Tom Cotton, Kristi Noem with 2%; Rick Scott with 0%
- ^ Among 304 republican adults as opposed to all adults
- ^ Rick Santorum with 3%; John Kasich and Rick Scott with 2%
- ^ John Kasich with 2%; Tom Cotton, Kristi Noem and Rick Scott with 1%
- ^ "Someone else" with 3%; Tom Cotton, Dan Crenshaw, Lindsay Graham and John Kasich with 2%; Ben Sasse and Elise Stefanik with 0%
- ^ Paul Ryan with 4%; Ivanka Trump with 3%; Kevin McCarthy with 2%
- ^ Likely Republican primary voter subsample of 1,093 likely general election voters
- ^ "Would vote for anyone other than Trump" with 14%; would not vote with 4%
- ^ a b c d e f If Donald Trump did not run
- ^ Not yet released
- ^ Mitt Romney and "Someone else" with 5%
- ^ "Someone else" with 7%; Mitt Romney with 5%
- ^ 34% do not want Trump run in the 2024 presidential election
- ^ 31% do not want Trump run in the 2024 presidential election
- ^ 36% do not want Trump run in the 2024 presidential election
- ^ 45% do not want Trump run in the 2024 presidential election
- ^ 22% do not want Trump run in the 2024 presidential election
- ^ "Do not want Trump to run in 2024" as opposed to "want Trump to run in 2024" with 22%
- ^ "Would vote for anyone other than Trump" with 9%; would not vote with 2%
- ^ "Would consider voting for Trump" with 20%; Undecided with 6%
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