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Senate Seats up for election: Democratic incumbent
Retiring Democrat
Independent incumbent
Retiring Independent
Republican incumbent
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Elections to the United States Senate are to be held on November 6, 2012, with 33 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested in regular elections whose winners will serve six-year terms from January 3, 2013 until January 3, 2019. Additionally, special elections may be held to fill vacancies that occur during the 112th United States Congress. Currently, Democrats are expected to have 23 seats up for election, including 2 independents who caucus with the Democrats, while Republicans are expected to have only 10 seats up for election.
The 2012 presidential election, elections to the House of Representatives, elections for governors in 13 states and territories, and many state and local elections will also be held on this date.
Composition
Among the Senate seats up for election in 2012, there are 21 Democrats, 10 Republicans and 2 Independents. The Independents include Joe Lieberman, who ran and won as an independent in 2006 after losing the Connecticut Democratic primary. Lieberman and Independent Bernie Sanders of Vermont both caucus with the Democratic Party.
If Senators in other classes die or resign between 2011 and 2012, there may be additional special elections between the beginning of the 112th Congress (on January 3, 2011), and the 2012 election. The dates between which the death or resignation of a Senator would lead to a special election during this time period vary from state to state.
Race summary
State | Incumbent | Party | Status | First Elected |
Announced Candidates | Previous Election Results | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Incumbent Party | Opposing Party | Independent/ 3rd Party | ||||||
Arizona | Jon Kyl | Republican | Retiring [1] | 1994 (3 terms) |
Will Cardon (R)[2] Jeff Flake (R)[3] Bryan Hackbarth (R)[4] Doug McKee (R)[5] Claire Van Steenwyk (R)[6] |
Don Bivens (D)[7] Richard Carmona (D)[8] Sydney Dudikoff(D) |
Ian Gilyeat (I)[9] | Jon Kyl (R) 53% (Inc.), Jim Pederson (D) 44%, Other 3% |
California | Dianne Feinstein | Democratic | Running[10] | 1992 (special election) (3 1/3 terms) |
Elizabeth Emken (R)[11] R.T. Gloria (R)[12] Don Grundmann (R)[13] Keith Holbrook (R)[14] Tim Kalemkarian (R)[15] Dirk Allen Konopik (R)[16] Michael Stollaire (R)[17] Orly Taitz (R)[18] |
Don Grundmann (AIP)[19] | Dianne Feinstein (D) 59% (Inc.), Dick Mountjoy (R) 35%, Other 6% |
|
Connecticut | Joe Lieberman | Independent | Retiring [20] | 1988 (4 terms) |
Susan Bysiewicz (D)[21] Chris Murphy (D)[22] William Tong (D) Lee Whitnum (D)[23] |
Brian Hill (R)[24] Peter Lumaj (R)[25] Jason McCoy (R)[26] Linda McMahon (R)[27] Chris Shays (R)[28] |
Paul Passarelli (L)[29] | Joe Lieberman (I) 50% (Inc.), Ned Lamont (D) 40%, Alan Schlesinger (R) 10% |
Delaware | Tom Carper | Democratic | Running[30] | 2000 (2 terms) |
Tom Carper (D) 70% (Inc.), Jan Ting (R) 29%, Other 1% |
|||
Florida | Bill Nelson | Democratic | Running | 2000 (2 terms) |
Bill Fisher Jr. (R)[31] Alexander George (R)[32] Adam Hasner (R)[33] George LeMieux (R) [34] Connie Mack IV(R)[35] Mike McCalister (R) Ron McNeil (R)[36] Craig Miller (R)[37] Ron Rushing (R)[38] Marielena Stuart (R)[39] |
Bill Nelson (D) 60% (Inc.), Katherine Harris (R) 38%, Other 2% |
||
Hawaii | Daniel Akaka | Democratic | Retiring[40] | 1990 (appointed) 1990 (special election) (3 2/3 terms) |
Ed Case (D) Mazie Hirono (D) |
John Carroll (R) Linda Lingle (R) |
Daniel Akaka (D) 61% (Inc.), Cynthia Thielen (R) 37%, Other 2% |
|
Indiana | Richard Lugar | Republican | Running[41] | 1976 (6 terms) |
Richard Mourdock (R) | Joe Donnelly (D) | Jack Rooney (I)[42] | Richard Lugar (R) 87% (Inc.), Steve Osborn (Libertarian) 13% |
Maine | Olympia Snowe | Republican | Retiring[43] | 1994 (3 terms) |
Scott D'Amboise (R)[44] Andrew Ian Dodge (R)[45] |
Matthew Dunlap (D)[46] Jon Hinck (D)[47] |
Olympia Snowe (R) 74% (Inc.), Jean Hay Bright (D) 21%, Bill Slavick (I) 5% |
|
Maryland | Ben Cardin | Democratic | Running[48] | 2006 (1 term) |
Raymond Blagmon (D)[49] | Dan Bongino (R)[50] William Capps (R)[51] Rick Hoover (R)[52] David Jones(R)[53] Eric Wargotz (R)[54] |
Ben Cardin (D) 54%, Michael Steele (R) 44%, Other 2% |
|
Massachusetts | Scott Brown | Republican | Running[55] | 2010 (special election) (1/3 term) |
Marisa DeFranco (D)[56] Jim King (D)[57] Elizabeth Warren (D) Bill Cimbrelo (I) |
2006 Election Ted Kennedy (D) 69% (Inc.), Kenneth Chase (R) 31% 2010 Special Election Scott Brown (R) 52%, Martha Coakley (D) 47% |
||
Michigan | Debbie Stabenow | Democratic | Running[43] | 2000 (2 terms) |
Scotty Boman (R)[58] Chad Dewey (R)[59] Clark Durant (R)[60] Gary Glenn (R)[61] Randy Hekman (R)[62] Pete Hoekstra (R)[63] Peter Konetchy (R)[64] Chuck Marino (R)[65] Rick Wilson (R)[66] |
Debbie Stabenow (D) 57% (Inc.), Mike Bouchard (R) 41%, Other 2% |
||
Minnesota | Amy Klobuchar | Democratic | Running[43] | 2006 (1 term) |
Dick Franson (D)[67] Jack Shepard (D)[68] |
Joe Arwood (R)[69] Anthony Hernandez (R)[70] Dan Severson (R) |
Amy Klobuchar (DFL) 58%, Mark Kennedy (R) 38%, Other 4% |
|
Mississippi | Roger Wicker | Republican | Running[43] | 2007 (appointed) 2008 (special election) (2/3 term) |
Albert N. Gore, Jr. (D) Will Oatis (D) Roger Weiner (D)[71] |
2006 Election Trent Lott (R) 64% (Inc.), Erik Fleming (D) 35%, Other 1% 2008 Special Election Roger Wicker (R) 55%, Ronnie Musgrove (D) 45% |
||
Missouri | Claire McCaskill | Democratic | Running[72] | 2006 (1 term) |
Samuel Lipari (D)[73] | Todd Akin (R)[74] John Brunner[75] Sarah Steelman (R) |
Richard Vagen[76] | Jim Talent (R) 47% (Inc.), Claire McCaskill (D) 50%, Other 3% |
Montana | Jon Tester | Democratic | Running[77] | 2006 (1 term) |
Denny Rehberg (R)[78] | Conrad Burns (R) 48% (Inc.), Jon Tester (D) 49%, Other 3% |
||
Nebraska | Ben Nelson | Democratic | Retiring[79] | 2000 (2 terms) |
Chuck Hassebrook (D)[80] Bob Kerrey (D)[81] Steve Lustgarten (D)[82] |
Jon Bruning (R)[83] Deb Fischer (R)[84] Pat Flynn (R)[85] Don Stenberg (R) Spencer Zimmerman (R)[86] |
Ben Nelson (D) 64% (Inc.), Pete Ricketts (R) 36% |
|
Nevada | Dean Heller | Republican | Running [87] | 2011 (appointed) |
Edward Hamilton (R)[88] | Shelley Berkley (D) Barry Ellsworth (D) |
John Ensign (R) 55% (Inc.), Jack Carter (D) 41%, Other 4% |
|
New Jersey | Bob Menendez | Democratic | Running[43] | 2006 (1 term) |
Gwen Diakos (D)[89] Jeff Boss (D)[90] |
Joe Kyrillos (R)[91] Ian Linker (R)[92] Joe Rullo (R)[93] |
Gavin Bard (I)[94] Larry Donahue (I)[95] |
Bob Menendez (D) 53% (Inc.), Thomas Kean Jr. (R) 45%, Other 2% |
New Mexico | Jeff Bingaman | Democratic | Retiring[96] | 1982 (5 terms) |
Hector Balderas (D) Martin Heinrich (D) [97] Andres Valdez (D)[98] |
Bill English (R)[99] John Sanchez (R)[100] Greg Sowards (R)[101] Heather Wilson (R) |
Jeff Bingaman (D) 71% (Inc.), Allen McCulloch (R) 29% |
|
New York | Kirsten Gillibrand | Democratic | Running[102] | 2009 (appointed) 2010 (special election) (1/2 term) |
Scott Noren (D)[103] | George Maragos (R) Wendy E. Long (R)[104] |
2006 Election Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) 67% (Inc.), John Spencer (R) 31%, Other 2% 2010 Special Election Kirsten Gillibrand (D) 63%, Joseph DioGuardi (R) 35%, Other 2% |
|
North Dakota | Kent Conrad | Democratic | Retiring [105] | 1986 (4 2/3 terms) |
Heidi Heitkamp (D)[106] Tom Potter (D)[107] |
Rick Berg (R) Duane Sand (R)[108] |
Kent Conrad (D-NPL) 69% (Inc.), Dwight Grotberg (R) 29%, Other 2% |
|
Ohio | Sherrod Brown | Democratic | Running[55] | 2006 (1 term) |
Rusty Bliss (R)[109] Donna Glisman (R)[110] Eric LaMont Gregory (R)[111] Michael Pryce (R)[112] Josh Mandel (R) [113] |
Joseph Rosario DeMare (G) [114] | Mike DeWine (R) 44% (Inc.), Sherrod Brown (D) 56% |
|
Pennsylvania | Bob Casey, Jr. | Democratic | Running[115] | 2006 (1 term) |
Tim Burns (R)[116] Laureen Cummings (R) John Kensinger (R)[117] John Marc Scaringi (R)[118] Tom Smith (R)[119] John Vernon (R)[120] David Christian (R)[121] Steve Welch (R)[122] |
Rick Santorum (R) 41% (Inc.), Bob Casey, Jr. (D) 59% |
||
Rhode Island | Sheldon Whitehouse | Democratic | Running[43] | 2006 (1 term) |
Barry Hinckley (R)[123] | Lincoln Chafee (R) 47% (Inc.), Sheldon Whitehouse (D) 53% |
||
Tennessee | Bob Corker | Republican | Running[43] | 2006 (1 term) |
James Durkan (R)[124] Zach Poskevich (R)[125] |
Bob Corker (R) 51%, Harold Ford, Jr. (D) 48%, Other 1% |
||
Texas | Kay Bailey Hutchison | Republican | Retiring [126] | 1993 (special election) 1994 (3 1/3 terms) |
Glenn Addison (R)[127] Andrew Castanuela (R)[128] Curt Cleaver (R)[129] Ted Cruz (R) David Dewhurst (R)[130] Nick Latham (R)[131] Tom Leppert (R) Lela Pittenger (R)[132] David Smith (R)[133] |
Stanley Garza (D)[134] Sean Hubbard (D)[135] Paul Sadler (D)[136] |
Chris Tina Foxx Bruce (I)[137] Jon Roland (L)[138] |
Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) 62% (Inc.), Barbara Ann Radnofsky (D) 36%, Other 2% |
Utah | Orrin Hatch | Republican | Running[139] | 1976 (6 terms) |
Kevin Fisk (R)[140] | Christopher Stout (D)[141] Pete Ashdown (D)[142] |
Orrin Hatch (R) 62% (Inc.), Pete Ashdown (D) 31%, Other 7% |
|
Vermont | Bernie Sanders | Independent | Running[43] | 2006 (1 term) |
Cris Ericson (MJP)[143] | Bernie Sanders (I) 65%, Richard Tarrant (R) 32%, Other 3% |
||
Virginia | Jim Webb | Democratic | Retiring [144] | 2006 (1 term) |
Tim Kaine (D) Courtney Lynch (D)[145] Julien Modica (D)[146] |
George Allen (R)[147] Tim Donner (R)[148] Bishop E.W. Jackson Sr. (R) David McCormick (R)[149] Jamie Radtke (R)[150] |
Kevin Chisholm (I)[151] | George Allen (R) 49% (Inc.), Jim Webb (D) 50%, Other 1% |
Washington | Maria Cantwell | Democratic | Running[43] | 2000 (2 terms) |
Michael Baumgartner (R)[152] | Maria Cantwell (D) 57% (Inc.), Mike McGavick (R) 40%, Other 3% |
||
West Virginia | Joe Manchin | Democratic | Running[43] | 2010 (special election) (1/3 term) |
2006 Election Robert Byrd (D) 64% (Inc.), John Raese (R) 34%, Other 2% 2010 Special Election Joe Manchin (D) 54%, John Raese (R) 43%, Other 3% |
|||
Wisconsin | Herb Kohl | Democratic | Retiring [153] | 1988 (4 terms) |
Tammy Baldwin (D) Gregory Paules (D) [154] |
Frank Lasee (R)[155] Mark Neumann (R) John Schiess (R)[156] Tommy Thompson (R)[157] |
Herb Kohl (D) 67% (Inc.), Robert Lorge (R) 30%, Other 3% |
|
Wyoming | John Barrasso | Republican | Running[43] | 2007 (appointed) 2008 (special election) (2/3 term) |
2006 Election Craig Thomas (R) 70% (Inc.), Dale Groutage (D) 30% 2008 Special Election John Barrasso (R) 73%, Nick Carter (D) 27% |
Predictions
*The Democrats include Independent Democrat Joe Lieberman, who ran and won as an independent in 2006 after losing the Connecticut Democratic primary, and Independent Bernie Sanders of Vermont, both of whom caucus with the Democratic Party.
Overview of races (33 seats)
Democrats/Independents retiring (7 seats)
Joe Lieberman of Connecticut (Independent)
Four-term incumbent Independent Joe Lieberman (an Independent who caucuses with the Democrats) will not seek reelection in 2012.[158] Senator Lieberman sat as a Democrat until 2006, when he was defeated by Ned Lamont in the Democratic primary. He won re-election with 49.7% of the vote in 2006 as an independent under the Connecticut for Lieberman Party and has since caucused with the Democrats as an "Independent Democrat."
Former Connecticut Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz (D)[22] and Democratic Congressman Chris Murphy[159] have announced their candidacies for the Democratic Primary. In addition, State Representative William Tong, a self-identified fiscally conservative democrat, is also considering a US Senate Run.[160]
Potential Republican candidates include attorney, Brian K. Hill, 2010 Senate nominee Linda McMahon,[161] former Lieutenant Governor Michael Fedele,[162] and former Congressmen Chris Shays and Rob Simmons.[163]
Daniel Akaka of Hawaii
Four-term incumbent Democrat Daniel Akaka was re-elected in 2006 with 62% of the vote. Akaka has decided not to run for re-election in 2012.[164]
Former state governor Linda Lingle will seek the seat as the Republican candidate.[165] Former Congressman Ed Case, who challenged Akaka for the Democratic nomination in 2006, and current Congresswoman Mazie Hirono have both announced their candidacies for the seat.[166] Lingle, Case, and Hirono all previously faced each other in Hawaii's 2002 gubernatorial election, with Lingle winning with 52% of the vote.
Ben Nelson of Nebraska
Two-term incumbent and former Governor Democrat Ben Nelson was re-elected in 2006 with 64% of the vote. He will be 71 years old in 2012. Nelson has decided to not run for re-election in 2012.[79]
Former Governor of Nebraska Bob Kerrey, who held the seat from 1989 to 2001, will seek election to the Senate again.[167] State Treasurer Don Stenberg, State Senator Deb Fischer and State Attorney General Jon Bruning have announced their candidacies along with Pat Flynn.[83][168] A February 1, 2011 poll conducted by Public Policy Polling showed Bruning leading Nelson by a 50% to 39% margin, Stenberg leading Nelson by a 45% to 41% margin, and Nelson leading Fischer by a 42% to 35% margin.[169]
Nebraska Governor Dave Heineman has announced he will not run.[170]
Jeff Bingaman of New Mexico
Five-term incumbent Democrat Jeff Bingaman was re-elected in 2006 with 70.6% of the vote. Bingaman has decided to not run for re-election in 2012.[171]
Businessman Bill English has announced his candidacy as a Republican.[99] On March 7, 2011, former U.S. Representative Heather Wilson announced that she will seek the Republican nomination.[172] Other Republican Candidates include Businessman Greg Sowards and Lieutenant Governor John Sanchez. 2008 Republican nominee for U.S. Senate Steve Pearce is also looking at another run.
Congressman Martin Heinrich and state Auditor Hector Balderas have declared their candidacies.
Kent Conrad of North Dakota
Four-term incumbent Democrat Kent Conrad was re-elected in 2006 with 69% of the vote. Conrad has decided to not run for re-election in 2012.[173]
U.S. Representative Rick Berg[174] has announced his candidacy as a Republican. State public service commissioner Brian Kalk initially announced his candidacy as well, but has since dropped it to run for the at large congressional seat held by Berg.[175]
On November 8, 2011, former state Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp announced that she would be running for the Democratic nomination.[106]
Jim Webb of Virginia
One-term incumbent Democrat Jim Webb was elected in 2006 by a margin of 0.6%, narrowly defeating then-incumbent George Allen in the biggest upset of the 2006 elections. Announcing that he did not want spend his life in politics, Webb said he will not run for re-election.[176]
The Republican Party of Virginia decided that the Republican nominee for this senate seat would be determined through a primary, as opposed to a state convention which had been used in more recent years. On January 24, 2011, George Allen announced that he will seek the Republican nomination.[177]
Jamie Radtke, head of the Virginia Tea Party Patriots, has filed papers to run for the Republican nomination.[178]
Also considering a run for the Republican nomination are state Del. Robert G. Marshall (R-Manassas) and Corey Stewart, the chairman of the Prince William County Board of Supervisors. Marshall ran for the U.S. Senate in 2008, narrowly losing the Republican nomination at the state convention to former Governor Jim Gilmore by only 69 votes.
On the Democratic Side, former Governor and DNC chairman Tim Kaine as well as former CEO of the Brain Trauma Recovery & Policy Institute, Julien Modica along with former Marine and small business-owner Courtney Lynch. Other possible candidates include Congressman Bobby Scott and former Congressmen Rick Boucher, and Jaime Areizaga-Soto.
Herb Kohl of Wisconsin
Four-term incumbent Democrat Herb Kohl, owner of the NBA's Milwaukee Bucks and member of the founding family of the Kohl's department store chain, announced he would not seek reelection in 2012.[153] He was reelected in 2006 with 67% of the vote and will be 77 years old in 2012.
U.S. Representative Tammy Baldwin announced her intention to run for the seat on September 6.[179] Other potential candidates for the Democrats include former Dane County Executive Kathleen Falk, and Madison biotechnology executive Kevin Conroy declined to run.[180]
On the Republican side, Congressman and House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan stated he would not have run against Kohl if he had sought re-election, but would contemplate a run if Kohl retired.[181] However, he later stated that he was "95 percent sure" that he would not run.[182] Former Congressman Mark Neumann, Speaker of the Wisconsin State Assembly Jeff Fitzgerald, and former Governor Tommy Thompson have confirmed their candidacies for the seat.[183]
Democrats/Independents seeking re-election (16 seats)
Dianne Feinstein of California
Three and one-third term incumbent Democrat Dianne Feinstein was re-elected in 2006 with 59% of the vote. She is a confirmed candidate[10] for reelection and is considered a safe or likely democratic hold.
Orly Taitz, a key spokesperson for the President Obama birther movement, and GOP candidate for Secretary of State of California in 2010, has announced that she will challenge Dianne Feinstein in the Blanket Primary next year.[18] Dirk Allen Konopik, an Evangelical Christian and former congressional aide has filed his Statement of Candidacy with the FEC for the seat. [184] Elizabeth Emken a prominent Children with Autism advocate and 2010 Republican congressional candidate has also announced that she will mount a challenge.[11] Other possible GOP Nominees include senior trial lawyer and self-proclaimed "Ron Paul Republican" Rick Williams,[185], R. T. Gloria [186], and Keith Holbrook.[14] For uptodate information, checkout the http://www.fec.gov.
Tom Carper of Delaware
Two-term incumbent Democrat Tom Carper was reelected with 70% of the vote in 2006. He will be 65 years old in 2012. Carper will seek re-election.[30]
Possible Republican candidates include political commentator and 2010 Republican U.S. Senate nominee Christine O'Donnell,[187] Businesswoman and 2010 Republican U.S. Congress primary nominee Michele Rollins.
Bill Nelson of Florida
Two-term incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson was reelected with 60% of the vote in 2006 against controversial former Secretary of State of Florida Katherine Harris. He will be 70 years old in 2012. Nelson will seek re-election. Plant City Republican Mike McCalister has announced his candidacy, as has former state House Majority Leader Adam Hasner,[188] former U.S. Senator George LeMieux[34] and Congressman Connie Mack IV.[189]
Other potential Republican candidates include Lieutenant Governor Jennifer Carroll.[190]
Polls conducted in November and December 2011 showed Nelson leading all his potential opponents by between 11 and 19 points.
Ben Cardin of Maryland
First-term incumbent Democrat Ben Cardin was elected in 2006 with 54% of the vote against former Maryland Lt. Gov. Michael S. Steele. He will be 69 years old in 2012. According to a Public Policy Polling survey conducted of 569 voters from July 10–12, 2010, in a potential rematch of 2006, Cardin leads Steele 58% to 28%. In a generic matchup, Cardin leads with 51%, to an unknown generic Republican at 33%.[191]
After losing reelection for the RNC chairmanship, Steele may seek a rematch with Cardin[192] Former U.S. Secret Service agent Daniel Bongino has announced his candidacy.[50]
Debbie Stabenow of Michigan
Two-term incumbent Democrat Debbie Stabenow was re-elected in 2006 with 57% of the vote to 41% for Oakland County Sheriff and former State Senate Majority Leader Michael Bouchard after narrowly defeating Republican incumbent Spencer Abraham in 2000.
Republican Tea Party Activist Chad Dewey announced his intent to run in the 2012 election while attending the Tax Day Tea Party event in Washington D.C. on April 15, 2010.[193] Also libertarian activist Scotty Boman is considering a run as a Republican.[194] On May 11, it was reported that Congressman Thad McCotter was thinking of entering the race.[195] Cardlologist Rob Steele, who ran for the U.S. House of Representatives in 2010, was thought to be a possible candidate, but has announced that he will not challenge Sen. Stabenow for her seat.[196] Also in the race are Clark Durant [197] and former Congressman Pete Hoekstra.
Recent polling shows Stabenow leading all potential opponents.[198]
Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota
One-term incumbent Democrat Amy Klobuchar was elected in 2006 with 58% of the vote. Senator Klobuchar's approval ratings, last reported at.,[199] have steadily risen since her election in November 2006. Her quick response to the I-35 bridge collapse in her home city of Minneapolis and her travels around the state have solidified the senator's popularity with the citizens of Minnesota. On March 12, 2010, a Rasmussen poll indicated 67% of Minnesotans approved of the job she was doing. Former state Representative and retired Navy pilot Dan Severson has announced his candidacy.[200]
Early polling[201] has Klobuchar leading all potential and hypothetical Republican opponents.
Claire McCaskill of Missouri
In this bellwether state, one-term incumbent Democrat Claire McCaskill was elected in 2006 with 49.6% of the vote, narrowly defeating then-incumbent Jim Talent. McCaskill will seek re-election in 2012, so far with no prominent Democrat challenging her.[202]
For now, the Republican contenders are Congressman Todd Akin and former State Treasurer Sarah Steelman.[203][204] Businessman John Brunner is still considering a run.[205] Jim Talent declined to run again, and Attorney Ed Martin and former Missouri GOP Chair Ann Wagner are instead eyeing Missouri's 2nd Congressional District.[206][207][208] Congressman Blaine Luetkemeyer also declined, and will be running for re-election in the 3rd district.[209]
A survey by PPP conducted April 28-May 1, 2011 showed McCaskill ahead of all declared and potential Republican candidates, but with Akin, Luetkemeyer and Steelman polling within the margin of error of ± 3.9%. In the same survey, Steelman and Akin lead the race for the Republican nomination, although 28% of voters were undecided.[210]
Jon Tester of Montana
One-term incumbent Democrat Jon Tester was elected in 2006 by a 49.2% to 48.3% margin, narrowly defeating incumbent Conrad Burns. Tester will seek re-election.[77] Republican Congressman Denny Rehberg has announced his candidacy for the seat.[211] A March 20, 2011 poll taken for Lee Newspapers shows Tester leading Rehberg by a statistically insignificant margin of 46% to 45%.
Former Republican Montana Governor and past RNC chairman Marc Racicot is also looking at running.[212]
Bob Menendez of New Jersey
One-term incumbent Democrat Bob Menendez became the first Hispanic Senator to represent New Jersey in January 2006 when Former Senator Jon Corzine appointed him to the office after having resigned to become Governor, following his election to said office in November 2005. Menendez comfortably defeated Republican state Senator Tom Kean, Jr., son of popular former Governor and 9/11 Commission Chairman Tom Kean and was elected to a full term in November 2006. He will be 58 years old in 2012.
In November 2009, former CNN Anchor Lou Dobbs was seriously considering a challenge to Menendez as either a Republican or Independent.[213] Biotech executive John Crowley has been rumored to be a potential candidate and Republicans believe that his wealth and appealing biography would make him an appealing candidate.[214] However, Crowley decided not to run.[215]
Gwen Diakos, a former defense contractor from Monmouth County, is running against Menendez as a Democrat in the June primary.
Two Republicans who say they're considering running are state Senator Joseph M. Kyrillos and state Senator Michael J. Doherty. In addition, state Senator Tom Kean, Menendez's 2006 opponent, hasn't ruled out running again.[216]
Kirsten Gillibrand of New York
Two-term former Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton was re-elected in 2006 with 67% of the vote. She narrowly lost the 2008 Democratic Presidential nomination to Barack Obama. She resigned on January 21, 2009 when the Senate confirmed her as Secretary of State. On January 23, Governor David Paterson appointed Congresswoman Kirsten Gillibrand to the seat. Gillibrand won a special election in 2010 with 61.2% of the vote. Gillibrand will seek re-election[102]
Sherrod Brown of Ohio
One-term incumbent Democrat Sherrod Brown was elected in 2006 with 56% of the vote, defeating then-incumbent Mike DeWine, whose popularity suffered due to scandals involving former Republican Governor Bob Taft and ex-Congressman Bob Ney. A poll conducted June 26–27 by Public Policy Polling shows that 45% of voters would vote to re-elect Brown, while 41% would vote to replace him.[217]
Brown will seek re-election in 2012 when he will be 60 years old. State Treasurer Josh Mandel,[218] Eric LaMont Gregory,[219] Congressman Jim Jordan, Lieutenant Governor Mary Taylor,[220] Congressman Steve LaTourette[221] have all been named as possible Republican contenders. Dave Zanotti of the Ohio Roundtable has also been mentioned as a possible contender, running as an independent.
A Quinnipiac University survey from May showed Brown leading all potential opposition with former Ohio Secretary of State Ken Blackwell who has decided not to run performing the best.[222] In the survey Brown led Blackwell 44% to 35%.[223]
Bob Casey, Jr. of Pennsylvania
One-term incumbent Democrat Bob Casey, Jr., the son of popular former Governor Bob Casey, was elected in 2006 with 58.7% of the vote, defeating then-incumbent Rick Santorum. He was the first Democrat elected to a full term in the U.S. Senate from Pennsylvania since 1962. Casey will seek re-election.[115]
Former state Representative Sam Rohrer is leading the field of announced contenders. [224] Former Senate staffer Marc Scaringi has announced his candidacy as a Republican.[118] State Senator Jake Corman is thinking of running but won't make a decision until after the state budget is passed[225]
Early polling[226] showed Casey leading all potential Republican contenders, including his predecessor, by double-digit percentage points.
Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island
One-term incumbent Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse was elected in 2006 with 53.5% of the vote, defeating then-incumbent Lincoln Chafee by 6 percentage points. Whitehouse will seek reelection.
Potential Republican Candidates include Former Governor Donald Carcieri,[227] 2010 Republican nominee for Governor John Robitaille,[228][229] and Warwick Mayor Scott Avedisian.[230]
Bernie Sanders of Vermont (Independent)
One-term incumbent Independent Bernie Sanders is an independent Senator (and self-described democratic socialist) who caucuses with the Democrats and won election with 65.4% of the vote in 2006 after Jim Jeffords, also an independent, retired. Sanders will be 71 years old in 2012.
Former Republican Governor Jim Douglas is looking at a possible run,[231] and state Auditor Thomas Salmon, Jr. is seriously thinking of being a candidate.[232]
Maria Cantwell of Washington
Two-term incumbent Democrat Maria Cantwell was re-elected in 2006 with 57% of the vote over Republican Mike McGavick. A poll conducted by Public Policy Polling July 27-August 1, 2010 of 1,204 voters had Cantwell leading in two potential matchups. In a matchup with Republican Congressman Dave Reichert, Cantwell led 47% to 41%. In a matchup with Republican Congresswoman Cathy McMorris Rodgers, Cantwell led 49% to 37%.[233] Susan Hutchison, who was a 2009 candidate for King County Executive, has frequently been mentioned as a possible GOP opponent for Cantwell.[234][235]
Joe Manchin of West Virginia
Nine-term former Democrat Robert Byrd, the longest serving U.S. Senator in history, was re-elected in 2006 with 64.4% of the vote. On June 28, 2010, Senator Byrd died at the age of 92, leaving this seat vacant. A special election to fill this seat was held in November 2010, which Democratic Governor Joe Manchin won with 53.5% of the vote. Manchin will be 65 years old in 2012.
Congresswoman Shelley Moore Capito is the GOP favorite to run for the seat.[236]
Republicans retiring (3 seats)
Jon Kyl of Arizona
Three-term incumbent and Senate Minority Whip Republican Jon Kyl was re-elected in 2006 with 53% of the vote. He has announced he will not seek a fourth term in 2012, when he will be 70 years old.[1][237] Republican Representative Jeff Flake (AZ-6) announced in February 2011 that he will seek his party's nomination.[238]
Olympia Snowe of Maine
Three-term incumbent Republican Olympia Snowe was re-elected in 2006 with 73 percent of the vote, the largest margin of any incumbent senator in 2006 in a contested election.
Scott D'Amboise, considered a conservative, announced in February 2010 that he would run against Snowe in the Republican primary.[239] Tea Party candidate Andrew Ian Dodge is also announced a challenge to Snowe.[240]
On February 28, 2012, Snowe announced her retirement, saying she did not want to spend another six years in the Senate's hyper-partisan environment.[241]
Former Maine Secretary of State Matthew Dunlap, a Democrat, announced in early November 2011 that he was running in the Democratic primary. Also in November, State Representative Jon Hinck announced he would run in the Democratic primary. Democratic State Senator Cynthia Dill announced her candidacy in January.
Kay Bailey Hutchison of Texas
Three-term incumbent Republican Kay Bailey Hutchison was re-elected in 2006 with 62% of the vote despite a poor overall climate for Republicans, who lost control of both chambers of Congress that year. In an interview with Texas Monthly published in December 2007, Hutchison stated that she would not seek re-election and might also resign from the Senate as early as 2009 to run for governor.[242] After losing the Republican gubernatorial primary to incumbent Governor Rick Perry, Hutchison announced that she would serve out the remainder of her term[243] and not run for re-election in 2012.[126]
For the Republicans, former Texas Solicitor General Ted Cruz, Texas Lt. Governor David Dewhurst, former SMU Mustangs running back and ESPN analyst Craig James, and former Dallas mayor Tom Leppert are candidates.[244][245][246] Former Texas Railroad Commissioner Michael L. Williams and former Texas Secretary of State Roger Williams, who both were originally running for the seat, have decided to run for the U.S. House of Representatives instead.[247][248]
On December 19, former state representative Paul Sadler filed to run as a Democrat.[249] Also running as Democrats are Sean Hubbard, Addie Dainell Allen and Daniel Boone.
Republicans seeking re-election (7 seats)
Richard Lugar of Indiana
Six-term incumbent Republican Richard Lugar was re-elected in 2006 with 87% of the vote, running unopposed by a Democrat. When the 111th Congress convened, Lugar became the most senior Republican in the Senate. On August 11, 2010, Lugar announced he expects to run for a 7th term in 2012.[41] He will be 80 years old in 2012. Lugar will be challenged in the primary by conservative state Treasurer Richard Mourdock, who criticizes Lugar for his willingness to vote with Democrats on key issues.[250]
Scott Brown of Massachusetts
Eight-term former Democrat Ted Kennedy was re-elected in 2006 with 69% of the vote. However, he wasn't able to finish his term as he died just before midnight of August 25, 2009 at the age of 77, due to a malignant glioma, a form of brain cancer.
Paul G. Kirk was appointed as the interim Senator by Gov. Deval Patrick and was sworn in on September 25, 2009 to serve until a permanent Senator was elected in the special election on January 19, 2010.
Republican state legislator Scott Brown won the special election in an upset that generated national publicity and was sworn in on February 4, 2010. He is running for reelection to a full term in 2012.[55] He is the first Republican senator to be elected in Massachusetts since 1972. He won 52% of the vote in the special election.
Democrats who have announced their candidacies include Harvard Law School professor Elizabeth Warren.[251]
Roger Wicker of Mississippi
One-term incumbent Republican Roger Wicker was appointed after former Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott announced on November 26, 2007 that he was going to resign by the end of 2007.[252] Wicker defeated former Governor Ronnie Musgrove in the 2008 special election and will be up for re-election in 2012.
Three Democrats will seek their party's nomination on the March 13, 2012 primary ballot: Oktibbeha County Democratic Party Chairman Albert N. Gore, Jr. of Starkville, retired Army Officer Will Oatis of Silver Creek, and physician Roger Weiner of Clarksdale.[253]
Dean Heller of Nevada
Two-term former Republican John Ensign was re-elected in 2006 with 55% of the vote against Jack Carter, son of former Democratic President Jimmy Carter.
In June 2009, Ensign admitted to an affair that he had with a campaign staffer. Sources also reported blackmail with the husband of the women involved apparently asking Ensign for a substantial amount of money.[254] On July 14, 2009, Ensign announced that he was running for re-election[255] He changed his mind and announced on March 7, 2011 that he would not seek re-election. Amid his continuing ethics investigation relating to his affair and the effect it was having on his family, Ensign announced he would resign effective May 3, 2011.[256] Governor Brian Sandoval was obligated to appoint his successor.
Republican Congressman Dean Heller had announced he would run for the seat after Ensign announced he would retire and serve the remainder of the term. Governor Brian Sandoval appointed Heller as successor to serve out the remainder of Ensign's term after he announced his resignation.[257]
Democratic Congresswoman Shelley Berkley has announced she will run for the seat.
Bob Corker of Tennessee
One-term incumbent Republican Bob Corker was elected in 2006 with 50.7% of the vote. He narrowly defeated then-Congressman Harold Ford, Jr.. Country music singer Hank Williams, Jr. has expressed an interest in challenging Corker for the GOP nomination in 2012.[258]
Corker set up "the Bob Corker for Senate 2012 committee" on November 8, 2006, or one day after winning a six-year term.[259]
Orrin Hatch of Utah
Six-term incumbent and former Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Republican Orrin Hatch was re-elected in 2006 with 62% of the vote. He will be 78 years old in 2012, and has announced he will run for re-election. Hatch has no formally-announced opponents. Though Hatch remains popular with Utahns in general, he is viewed by many in the Utah Republican Party as too moderate, and many names are being floated as potential challengers.[139] The name most frequently mentioned was that of conservative Congressman Jason Chaffetz, who had criticized Hatch, but Chaffetz announced on August 22, 2011, that he would not run against Hatch.[260] Also frequently mentioned is state Senator Dan Liljenquist.[261] Among Democrats, Congressman Jim Matheson has been mentioned frequently and polls show him running competitively against both Hatch and Chaffetz.[262]
John Barrasso of Wyoming
One-term incumbent Republican John Barrasso was appointed to the Senate in 2007 after the death of Republican Craig L. Thomas and won a special election in 2008 to complete Thomas's term.
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External links
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