Template:Infobox EU referendum The United Kingdom European Union membership referendum, known as the EU referendum in the United Kingdom, is a plebiscite that took place on 23 June 2016.[1][2] Membership of the European Union has been a topic of debate in the United Kingdom since the country joined the European Economic Community (EEC, or "Common Market") in 1973.
In accordance with a Conservative Party manifesto commitment, the legal basis for a referendum was established by the UK Parliament through the European Union Referendum Act 2015. It will be the second time the British electorate has been asked to vote on the issue of Britain's membership: the first referendum was held in 1975, when continued membership was approved by 67% of voters.[3]
Those who favour a British withdrawal from the European Union – commonly referred to as a Brexit (a portmanteau of "British" and "exit")[4][a] – argue that the EU has a democratic deficit and that being a member undermines national sovereignty, while those who favour membership argue that in a world with many supranational organisations any loss of sovereignty is compensated by the benefits of EU membership. Those who want to leave the EU argue that it would: allow the UK to better control immigration, thus reducing pressure on public services, housing and jobs; save billions in EU membership fees; allow the UK to make its own trade deals; and free the UK from EU regulations and bureaucracy that they see as needless and costly. Those who want to remain argue that leaving the EU would: risk the UK's prosperity; diminish its influence over world affairs; jeopardise national security by reducing access to common European criminal databases; and result in trade barriers between the UK and the EU. In particular, they argue that it would lead to job losses, delays in investment into the UK and risks to business.[6]
Britain Stronger in Europe is the main group campaigning for the UK to remain in the EU, and Vote Leave the main group campaigning for it to leave. Many other campaign groups, political parties, businesses, trade unions, newspapers and prominent individuals are also involved.
History
The European Economic Community (EEC) was formed in 1957.[7] The United Kingdom (UK) first applied to join in 1961, but this was vetoed by France.[7] A later application was successful and the UK joined in 1973; a referendum two years later on continuing membership resulted in 67% approval.[7] Political integration gained greater focus when the Maastricht Treaty established the European Union (EU) in 1993, which incorporated (and after the Treaty of Lisbon, succeeded) the EEC.[7][8]
Following the European Parliament Election in 2014, the UK Independence Party (UKIP) secured a majority of the popular vote leaving the Conservative Party in third place (first time a party other than the Conservatives or Labour has topped a nationwide poll in 108 years). Given the electoral system for the European Parliament uses a Proportional Representation, UKIP also gained the highest amount of British seats in the European Parliament.[9]
In January 2013, British Prime Minister David Cameron promised that, should his Conservative Party win a parliamentary majority at the 2015 general election, the UK Government would negotiate more favourable arrangements for continuing British membership of the EU, before holding a referendum as to whether the UK should remain in or leave the EU.[10] In May 2013, the Conservative Party published a draft EU Referendum Bill and outlined their plans for renegotiation and then an In-Out vote if returned to office in 2015.[11] The draft Bill stated that the referendum must be held no later than 31 December 2017.[12]
The draft legislation was initially taken forward as a Private Member's Bill by Conservative MP James Wharton.[13] The Bill's First Reading in the House of Commons took place on 19 June 2013.[14] Cameron was said by a spokesperson to be "very pleased" and would ensure the Bill was given "the full support of the Conservative Party".[15]
Regarding the ability of the Bill to bind the UK Government in the 2015–20 Parliament to holding such a referendum, a parliamentary research paper noted that:
The Bill simply provides for a referendum on continued EU membership by the end of December 2017 and does not otherwise specify the timing, other than requiring the Secretary of State to bring forward orders by the end of 2016. [...] If no party obtained a majority at the [next general election due in 2015], there might be some uncertainty about the passage of the orders in the next Parliament.[16]
The Bill received its Second Reading on 5 July 2013, passing by 304 votes to none after almost all Labour MPs and all Liberal Democrat MPs abstained, cleared the Commons in November 2013, and was then introduced to the House of Lords in December 2013, where members voted to block the Bill.[17]
Conservative MP Bob Neill then introduced an Alternative Referendum Bill to the Commons.[18][19] After a debate on 17 October 2014, it passed to the Public Bills Committee, but due to the Commons failing to pass a monetary resolution, the Bill was unable to progress further before the Dissolution of Parliament on 27 March 2015.[20][21]
Under Ed Miliband's leadership between 2010 and 2015, the Labour Party ruled out an In-Out referendum unless there was a further transfer of powers from the UK to the EU.[22] In their manifesto for the 2015 general election the Liberal Democrats pledged to hold an In-Out referendum only in the event of there being a change in the EU treaties.[23] The UK Independence Party (UKIP), the British National Party (BNP), the Green Party,[24] the Democratic Unionist Party[25] and the Respect Party[26] all supported the principle of a referendum.
When the Conservative Party won the majority of seats in the House of Commons in the May 2015 general election, Cameron reiterated his party's manifesto commitment to hold an In-Out referendum on UK membership of the EU by the end of 2017, but only after "negotiating a new settlement for Britain in the EU".[27]
Renegotiation before the referendum
In early 2014, Prime Minister David Cameron outlined the changes he aimed to bring about in the EU and in the UK's relationship with it.[28] These were: additional immigration controls, especially for new EU members; tougher immigration rules for present EU citizens; new powers for national parliaments collectively to veto proposed EU laws; new free trade agreements and a reduction in bureaucracy for businesses; a lessening of the influence of the European Court of Human Rights on UK police and courts; more power for individual member states and less for the central EU; and abandoning the EU notion of "ever closer union".[28] He intended to bring these about during a series of negotiations with other EU leaders and then, if re-elected, to announce a referendum.[28]
In November that year, Cameron gave an update on the negotiations and further details of his aims.[29] The key demands made of the EU were: on economic governance, to recognise officially that Eurozone laws would not necessarily apply to non-Eurozone EU members and the latter would not have to bail out troubled Eurozone economies; on competitiveness, to expand the single market and to set a target for the reduction of bureaucracy for businesses; on sovereignty, for the UK to be legally exempted from "ever closer union" and for national parliaments to be able collectively to veto proposed EU laws; and, on immigration, for EU citizens going to the UK for work to be unable to claim social housing or in-work benefits until they had worked there for four years and for them to be unable to send child benefit payments overseas.[29][30]
The outcome of the renegotiations was announced in February 2016.[31] There was no fundamental change to the EU–UK relationship.[31] Some limits to in-work benefits for EU immigrants were agreed, but these would apply on a sliding scale for four years and be for new immigrants only; before they could be applied, a country would have to get permission from the European Council.[31] Child benefit payments could still be made overseas, but these would be linked to the cost of living in the other country.[32] On sovereignty, the UK was reassured that it would not be required to participate in "ever closer union"; these reassurances were "in line with existing EU law".[31] Cameron's demand to allow national parliaments to veto proposed EU laws was modified to allow national parliaments collectively to object to proposed EU laws, in which case the European Council would reconsider the proposal before itself deciding what to do.[31] On economic governance, anti-discrimination regulations for non-Eurozone members would be reinforced, but they would be unable to veto any legislation.[33] The final two areas covered were proposals to "exclude from the scope of free movement rights, third country nationals who had no prior lawful residence in a Member State before marrying a Union citizen"[34] and to make it easier for member states to deport EU nationals for public policy or public security reasons.[35] The extent to which the various parts of the agreement would be legally binding is complex; no part of the agreement itself changed EU law, but some parts could be enforceable in international law.[36]
The renegotiated terms are in addition to the United Kingdom's existing opt-outs in the European Union and the UK rebate.
Legislation
To enable the referendum to take place across the United Kingdom and Gibraltar, two pieces of legislation were enacted. The first of these, the European Union Referendum Act 2015, was passed by the Parliament of the United Kingdom and received the Royal Assent on 17 December 2015. The second, the European Union (Referendum) Act 2016, was passed by the Gibraltar Parliament to allow the referendum to take place in Gibraltar and received the Royal Assent on 28 January 2016.[citation needed]
The planned referendum was included in the Queen's Speech on 27 May 2015.[37] It was suggested at the time that Cameron was planning to hold the referendum in October 2016,[38] but the European Union Referendum Act 2015, which authorised it, went before the House of Commons the following day, just three weeks after the election.[39] On the bill's second reading on 9 June, members of the House of Commons voted by 544 to 53 in favour of it, endorsing the principle of holding a referendum, with only the Scottish National Party voting against.[40] In contrast to the Labour Party's position prior to the 2015 general election under Miliband, acting Labour leader Harriet Harman committed her party to supporting plans for an EU referendum by 2017.[41]
Administration
Date
Prior to being officially announced, it was widely speculated that a June date for the referendum was a serious possibility. The First Ministers of Northern Ireland, Scotland, and Wales co-signed a letter to Cameron asking him not to hold the referendum in June, as devolved elections were scheduled to take place the previous month. These elections had been postponed for a year to avoid a clash with the 2015 General Election, after Westminster had implemented the Fixed Term Parliament Act. Cameron refused this request, saying people were able to make up their own minds in multiple elections spaced a short time from each other.[42]
In February 2016, Cameron announced that the Government was to recommend that the UK should remain in the EU and that the referendum would be held on 23 June, marking the official launch of the campaign. He also announced that Parliament would enact secondary legislation relating to the European Union Referendum Act 2015 on 22 February. With the official launch, ministers of the UK Government were then free to campaign on either side of the argument in a rare exception to Cabinet collective responsibility.[43]
Eligibility to vote
The European Union Referendum Act 2015 dictates that only British, Irish and Commonwealth citizens over 18 who are resident in the UK or Gibraltar will be able to vote in the referendum.[44] British citizens who have been registered to vote in the UK within the last 15 years will also be eligible to vote.[44]
The deadline to register to vote was initially midnight on 7 June 2016 but this was extended by 48 hours because of technical problems with the official registration website on 7 June caused by unusually high web traffic. Some supporters of the Leave campaign, including the Conservative MP Sir Gerald Howarth, criticised the government's decision to extend the deadline, alleging it gave Remain an advantage because many late registrants were young people who are considered to be more likely to vote for Remain.[45] Almost 46.5 million people are eligible to vote.[46]
There has been protest by some residents of the Crown dependencies of the Isle of Man, Jersey and Guernsey that they should have the opportunity to vote in the referendum, as (although not part of the EU, unlike Gibraltar) EU membership also affects them.[47]
Referendum wording
Research by the Electoral Commission confirmed that its recommended question "was clear and straightforward for voters, and was the most neutral wording from the range of options ... considered and tested", citing responses to its consultation by a diverse range of consultees, including Thom Brooks and the Democratic Unionist Party.[48] The proposed question was accepted by the government in September 2015, shortly before the bill's third reading.[49] The first ballot papers were issued to postal voters in May 2016, and the referendum question that appears on them, as required under both pieces of legislation, is: "Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?"[49] The response is to be marked with a single (X): "Remain a member of the European Union" or "Leave the European Union".[49]
Campaign structures
As of October 2015, there was a cross-party, formal group campaigning for Britain to remain a member, called Britain Stronger in Europe, while there were two groups promoting exit which sought to be the official Leave campaign: Leave.EU (supported by most of UKIP, including Nigel Farage),[50] and Vote Leave (supported by Conservative Party Eurosceptics).[50][51] The Electoral Commission announced on 13 April 2016 that Vote Leave was the official leave campaign. This gave it the right to spend up to £7m, a free mailshot, TV broadcasts and £600,000 in public funds.[52] Leave.EU also has an umbrella group offshoot,[50] the cross-party Grassroots Out.[53] The UK government's official position is to support the remain option. A Government-backed campaign was launched in April.[54] On 16 June all official national campaigning was suspended until 19 June after the killing of Jo Cox MP.[55]
HM Government distributed a leaflet to every household in England in the week commencing 11 April, and in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland on 5 May (after devolved elections). It gave details on why the government's position is that the UK should remain in the EU. The rationale was that internal polls showed that 85% of the population wanted more information from the Government.[56] It was criticised by those wanting to leave as being an unfair advantage, inaccurate and a waste of money costing £9.3 million for the campaign.[57]
In the week beginning 16 May the Electoral Commission sent a voting guide regarding the referendum to every household within the UK and Gibraltar to raise awareness of the upcoming referendum. The eight-page guide contained details on how to vote, as well as a sample of the actual ballot paper, and a whole page each was given to the campaign groups Britain Stronger in Europe and Vote Leave to present their case.[58][59]
Procedure for a withdrawal
There is no precedent for a sovereign member state leaving the European Union or any of its predecessor organisations. However, three territories of EU member states have withdrawn: Algeria (1962, independence from France),[60] Greenland (1985)[61] and Saint Barthélemy (2012),[62] the latter two becoming Overseas Countries and Territories of the European Union.
Article 49A of the Treaty of Lisbon, which came into force on 1 December 2009, introduced for the first time a procedure for a member state to withdraw voluntarily from the EU.[63] This is specified in Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union, which states that:[64]
- Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.
- A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.
- The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.
Remaining members of the EU consequently would need to undertake negotiations to manage change over the EU's budgets, voting allocations and policies brought about by the withdrawal of any member state.[65]
Responses
Party policies
The table lists only those political parties with elected representation in the Westminster, the devolved and the European parliaments.
Among minor parties, Britain First,[86] the British National Party (BNP),[87] Éirígí,[88] Respect Party,[89] Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition (TUSC),[90] SDP,[91] and Independence from Europe[92] support leaving the EU. The Scottish Socialist Party (SSP) support remaining in the EU.[93] The Women's Equality Party (WE) has no official position on the issue.[94][95]
All parties represented in the Gibraltar Parliament support Remain: the Gibraltar Social Democrats (GSD),[96] the Gibraltar Socialist Labour Party (GSLP),[97] and the Liberal Party of Gibraltar.[97]
No party has decreed that its members should all follow the party line, resulting in public differences of view: Conservative Party MPs in particular, and Labour MPs to a lesser extent, are taking different sides. Most parties have splits in their members and supporters, with Labour,[98] Conservative,[99] Liberal Democrat,[100] UKIP,[101] and Green[102] supporters all taking different sides.
Cabinet Ministers
The Cabinet of the United Kingdom is a body responsible for making decisions on policy and organising governmental departments; it is chaired by the Prime Minister and contains most of the government's ministerial heads.[103] Following the announcement of the referendum in February, 23 of the 30 Cabinet ministers (including attendees) supported the UK staying in the EU.[104] Iain Duncan Smith, in favour of leaving, resigned on 19 March and was replaced by Stephen Crabb who is in favour of remaining.[104][105] Crabb was already a cabinet member, as the Secretary of State for Wales, and his replacement, Alun Cairns, is in favour of remaining, bringing the total number of pro-remain Cabinet members to 25.
Business
Various UK multinationals have stated that they would not like the UK to leave the EU because of the uncertainty it would cause, such as Shell,[106] BT[107] and Vodafone,[108] with some assessing the pros and cons of Britain exiting.[109] The banking sector is one of the most vocal advocating to stay in the EU, with the British Bankers Association saying: "Businesses don't like that kind of uncertainty".[110] RBS has warned of potential damage to the economy.[111] Furthermore, HSBC and foreign-based banks JP Morgan and Deutsche Bank claim a Brexit might result in the banks' changing domicile.[112][113] According to Goldman Sachs and the City of London's policy chief, all such factors could impact on the City of London's present status as a European and global market leader in financial services.[114][115] In February 2016, leaders of 36 of the FTSE 100 companies, including Shell, BAE Systems, BT and Rio Tinto, officially supported staying in the EU.[116] Moreover, 60% of the Institute of Directors and the EEF memberships supported staying.[117]
Many UK-based businesses, including Sainsbury's, have remained steadfastly neutral, concerned that taking sides in the divisive issue could lead to a backlash from customers.[118]
Richard Branson stated that he was "very fearful" of the consequences of a UK exit from the EU.[119] Alan Sugar, expressed similar concern.[120]
In June 2016, James Dyson, founder of the Dyson company, argued that the introduction of tariffs would be less damaging for British exporters than the appreciation of the pound against the Euro, arguing that, as Britain ran a 100 billion pound trade deficit with the EU, tariffs could represent a significant revenue source for the Treasury.[121] Pointing out that languages, plugs and laws differ between EU member states, Dyson said that the 28-country bloc was not a single market, and argued the fastest growing markets were outside the EU.[121] Engineering company Rolls-Royce wrote to employees to say that it did not want the UK to leave the EU.[122]
Surveys of large UK businesses show a strong majority favour the UK remaining in the EU.[123] Small and medium-sized UK businesses are more evenly split.[123] Polls of foreign businesses find that around half would be less likely to do business in the UK, while 1% would increase their investment in the UK.[124][125][126] Two large car manufacturers – Ford and BMW – warned in 2013 against Brexit, suggesting it would be "devastating" for the economy.[127] Conversely, in 2015, some other manufacturing executives told Reuters that they would not shut their plants if the UK left the EU, although future investment might be put at risk.[128] The CEO of Vauxhall stated that a Brexit would not materially affect its business.[129] Foreign-based Toyota CEO Akio Toyoda confirmed that, whether or not Britain left the EU, Toyota would carry on manufacturing cars in Britain as they had done before.[130]
Exchange rates and stock markets
In the week following conclusion of the UK's renegotiation (and especially after Boris Johnson announced that he would support the UK leaving), the pound fell to a seven-year low against the dollar and economists at HSBC warned that it could drop even more.[131] At the same time, Daragh Maher, head of HSBC, suggested that if Sterling dropped in value so would the Euro. He said "If we have increased Brexit risk, we will have a negative risk for the euro." European banking analysts also cited Brexit concerns as the reason for the Euro's decline.[132] Immediately after a poll in June 2016 showed that the Leave campaign was 10 points ahead, the pound dropped by a further one per cent.[133] In the same month, it was announced that the value of goods exported from the UK in April had shown a month-on-month increase of 11.2%, "the biggest rise since records started in 1998".[134][135]
Uncertainty over the referendum result, together with several other factors – US interest rates rising, low commodity prices, low Eurozone growth and concerns over emerging markets such as China – contributed to a high level of stock market volatility in January and February 2016.[136] During this period, the FTSE 100 rose or fell by more than 1.5% on 16 days.[136] On 14 June, polls showing that a Brexit was more likely led to the FTSE 100 falling by 2%, lost £98 billion in value.[137][138] After further polls suggested a move back towards Remain, the pound and the FTSE recovered.[139]
On the day of the referendum, Sterling hit a 2016 high and the FTSE 100 climbed as a new poll suggested a win for the Remain campaign.[140]
European responses
Czech prime minister Bohuslav Sobotka suggested that the Czech Republic would start discussions on leaving the EU if the UK voted for an EU exit.[141] Former Czech President Václav Klaus said that Britain's departure from the EU would be a bigger non-event than the dissolution of Czechoslovakia.[142]
Marine Le Pen, the leader of the French Front national, described the possibility of a Brexit as "like the fall of the Berlin Wall" and commented that "Brexit would be marvellous – extraordinary – for all European peoples who long for freedom".[143] A poll in France showed that 59% of the French people were in favour of Britain remaining in the EU.[144]
The Polish President Andrzej Duda lent his support for the Remain.[145] Moldovan Prime Minister Pavel Filip asked all citizens of Moldova living in the UK, to speak to their British friends and convince them to vote for the UK to remain in the EU.[146]
Non-European responses
International Monetary Fund
In February 2016, Christine Lagarde, the managing director of the International Monetary Fund, warned that the uncertainty over the outcome of the referendum would be bad "in and of itself" for the British economy.[147] In response, Leave campaigner Priti Patel said a previous warning from the IMF regarding the coalition government's deficit plan for the UK was proven incorrect and that the IMF "were wrong then and are wrong now".[148]
United States
In October 2015, United States Trade Representative Michael Froman declared that the United States was not keen on pursuing a separate free trade agreement (FTA) with Britain if it were to leave the EU, thus undermining, according to The Guardian, a key economic argument of proponents of those who say Britain would prosper on its own and be able to secure bilateral FTAs with trading partners.[149] Also in October 2015, the United States Ambassador to the United Kingdom Matthew Barzun said that UK participation in NATO and the EU made each group "better and stronger" and that, while the decision to remain or leave is a choice for the British people, it was in the US interest that it remain.[150] In April 2016, eight former U.S. Secretaries of the Treasury, who served both Democratic and Republican presidents, urged Britain to remain in the EU.[151]
In July 2015, President Barack Obama confirmed the longstanding US preference for the UK to remain in the EU. Obama said: "Having the UK in the EU gives us much greater confidence about the strength of the transatlantic union, and is part of the cornerstone of the institutions built after World War II that has made the world safer and more prosperous. We want to make sure that the United Kingdom continues to have that influence."[152] Obama's intervention was criticised by Republican Senator Ted Cruz as "a slap in the face of British self-determination as the president, typically, elevated an international organisation over the rights of a sovereign people", and claimed that "Britain will be at the front of the line for a free trade deal with America", were a Brexit to occur.[153][154]
In March 2016, Republican candidate Donald Trump stated about the possibility of a Brexit: "I think maybe it's time, especially in light of what's happened, with the craziness that's going on with the migration, with people pouring in all over the place. I think that Britain will end up separating from the EU, that's my opinion. I'm not endorsing it one way or the other but that's my opinion."[155]
Other states
In October 2015, the Chinese President Xi Jinping declared his support for Britain remaining in the EU, saying "China hopes to see a prosperous Europe and a united EU, and hopes Britain, as an important member of the EU, can play an even more positive and constructive role in promoting the deepening development of China-EU ties".[156] Chinese diplomats have stated "off the record" that the People's Republic sees the EU as a counterbalance to American economic power, and that an EU without Britain would mean a stronger United States.[156]
In February 2016, the finance ministers from the G-20 major economies warned that leaving the EU would lead to "a shock" in the global economy.[157][158]
Indonesian president Joko Widodo stated during a European trip that he was not in favour of Brexit.[159]
Sri Lankan Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe issued a statement of reasons why he was "very concerned" at the possibility of Brexit.[160]
Russian President Vladimir Putin said: "I want to say it is none of our business, it is the business of the people of the UK."[161] Maria Zakharova, the official Russian foreign ministry spokesperson, said: "Russia has nothing to do with Brexit. We are not involved in this process in any way. We don’t have any interest in it."[162]
Economists
In November 2015, the Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney said that the Bank of England would do what was necessary to help the UK economy if the British people voted to leave the EU.[163] In March 2016, Carney told MPs that an EU exit was the "biggest domestic risk" to the UK economy, but that remaining a member also carried risks, related to the European Monetary Union, of which the UK is not a member.[164] In May 2016, Carney said that a "technical recession" was one of the possible risks of the UK leaving the EU.[165] However, Iain Duncan Smith said Carney's comment should be taken with "a pinch of salt", saying "all forecasts in the end are wrong".[166]
In December 2015, the Bank of England published a report about the impact of immigration on wages. The report concluded that immigration put downward pressure on workers' wages, particularly low-skilled workers: a 10 percent point rise in the proportion of migrants working in low-skilled services drove down the average wages of low-skilled workers by about 2 percent.[167]
In March 2016, Nobel prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz argued that he might reconsider his support for the UK remaining in the EU if the proposed Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) were to be agreed to.[168] Stiglitz warned that under the investor-state dispute settlement provision in current drafts of the TTIP, governments risked being sued for loss of profits resulting from new regulations, including health and safety regulations to limit the use of asbestos or tobacco.[168]
The German economist Clemens Fuest wrote that at present there is a liberal, free trade bloc in the EU comprising the UK, the Netherlands, the Czech Republic, Sweden, Denmark, Ireland, Slovakia, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania which control 32% of the votes in the European Council and stands in opposition to the dirigiste, protectionist policies favoured by France and its allies.[169] Germany with its "social market" economy stands midway between the French dirigiste economic model and the British free market economic model. From the German viewpoint, the existence of the liberal bloc allows Germany to play off free market Britain against dirigiste France, and that if Britain were to leave, the liberal bloc would be severely weakened, thereby allowing the French to take the EU into a much more dirigiste direction that would be unattractive from the standpoint of Berlin.[169]
Institute for Fiscal Studies
In May 2016, the Institute for Fiscal Studies said that an EU exit could mean two more years of austerity cuts as the government would have to make up for an estimated loss of £20 billion to £40 billion of tax revenue. The head of the IFS, Paul Johnson said that the UK "could perfectly reasonably decide that we are willing to pay a bit of a price for leaving the EU and regaining some sovereignty and control over immigration and so on. That there would be some price though, I think is now almost beyond doubt."[170]
Centre for Economics and Business Research
In June 2016, the Centre for Economics and Business Research warned that 800,000 jobs could be lost if Britain adopted the World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules for trade with Europe, which leading Brexiteers Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and Nigel Farage said Britain could trade under, if it could not agree a new trade deal with the rest of the EU. WTO rules allow tariffs of 10 per cent on cars, 75 per cent on tobacco and cigars, 22 per cent on fruit and 12 per cent on clothes.[171]
Law and economics experts
A study by Oxford Economics for the Law Society has suggested that Brexit would have a particularly large negative impact on the UK financial services industry and law firms that support it, which could cost the law sector as much as £1.7bn per annum by 2030.[172] The Law Society's own report into the possible effects of Brexit notes that leaving the EU would be likely to reduce the role played by the UK as a centre for resolving disputes between foreign firms, whilst a potential loss of "passporting" rights would require financial services firms to transfer departments responsible for regulatory oversight overseas.[173]
World Pensions Forum director M. Nicolas Firzi has argued that the Brexit debate should be viewed within the broader context of economic analysis of EU law and regulation in relation to English common law, arguing:> "Every year, the British Parliament is forced to pass tens of new statutes reflecting the latest EU directives coming from Brussels – a highly undemocratic process known as 'transposition'... Slowly but surely, these new laws dictated by EU commissars are conquering English common law, imposing upon UK businesses and citizens an ever-growing collection of fastidious regulations in every field".[174]
A poll of lawyers conducted by a legal recruiter in late May 2016 suggested 57% of lawyers wanted to remain in the EU.[175]
NHS officials
Simon Stevens, head of NHS England, warned in May 2016 that a recession following a Brexit would be "very dangerous" for the health service, saying that "When the British economy sneezes, the NHS catches a cold."[176] Three-quarters of a sample of NHS leaders agreed that leaving the EU would have a negative effect on the NHS as a whole. In particular, eight out of 10 respondents felt that leaving the EU would have a negative impact on trusts' ability to recruit health and social care staff.[177] In April 2016, a group of nearly 200 health professionals and researchers warned that the NHS would be in jeopardy if Britain left the European Union.[178]
UK charities
Guidelines by the Charity Commission for England and Wales that forbid political activity for registered charities have kept them silent on the EU poll.[179] According to Simon Wessely, head of psychological medicine at the Institute of Psychiatry, King's College London – neither a special revision of the guidelines from 7 March 2016, nor Cameron's encouragement have made health organizations, most of which support the remain campaign, willing to speak out.[179]
Fishing industry
A June 2016 survey of UK fishermen found that 92% intended to vote to leave the EU.[180] The EU's Common Fisheries Policy was mentioned as a central reason for their near-unanimity.[180] More than three quarters believed that they would be able to land more fish, and 93% stated that leaving the EU would benefit the fishing industry.[181]
Historians
In May 2016, more than 300 historians wrote in a joint letter to The Guardian that Britain could play a bigger role in the world as part of the EU. They said: “As historians of Britain and of Europe, we believe that Britain has had in the past, and will have in the future, an irreplaceable role to play in Europe.”[182]
Exit plan competition
Following David Cameron's announcement of an EU referendum, British think tank the Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA) announced in July 2013 a competition to find the best plan for a UK exit from the European Union, declaring that a departure is a "real possibility" after the 2015 general election.[183] Iain Mansfield, a Cambridge graduate and UKTI diplomat, submitted the winning thesis: A Blueprint for Britain: Openness not Isolation.[184] Mansfield's submission focused on addressing both trade and regulatory issues with member states as well as other global trading partners.[185][186]
Opinion polling
Since 2010, polls have indicated that the British public are divided on the question, with opposition to EU membership peaking in November 2012 at 56% compared with 30% who prefer to remain in,[187] while in June 2015 those in favour of Britain remaining in the EU reached 43% versus those opposed 36%.[188] The largest ever poll (of 20,000 people, in March 2014) showed the public evenly split on the issue, with 41% in favour of withdrawal, 41% in favour of membership, and 18% undecided.[189] However, when asked how they would vote if Britain renegotiated the terms of its membership of the EU, and the UK Government stated that British interests had been satisfactorily protected, more than 50% indicated that they would vote for Britain to stay in.[190]
Analysis of polling suggests that young voters tend to support remaining in the EU, whereas those older tend to support leaving, but there is no gender split in attitudes.[191][192] YouGov have also found that euroscepticism correlates with people of lower income, but notes that euroscepticism also has strongholds in "the more wealthy, Tory shires".[193] Scotland, Wales and many English urban areas with large student populations are more pro-EU.[193] Big business is broadly behind remaining in the EU, though the situation among smaller companies is less clear cut.[194] In polls of economists, lawyers, and scientists, clear majorities see the UK's membership of the EU as beneficial.[195][196][197][198][199]
Issues
The number of jobs lost or gained by a withdrawal is likely to be a dominant issue; the BBC's outline of issues warns that a precise figure is difficult to find. The Leave campaign argues that a reduction in red tape associated with EU regulations would create more jobs and that small to medium-sized companies who trade domestically would be the biggest beneficiaries. Those arguing to remain in the EU, claim that millions of jobs would be lost. The EU's importance as a trading partner and the outcome of its trade status if it left is a disputed issue. Whilst those wanting to stay cite that most of the UK's trade is made with the EU, those arguing to leave say that its trade is not as important as it used to be. Scenarios of the economic outlook for the country if it left the EU are generally negative. The United Kingdom also pays more into the EU budget than it receives.[200]
Citizens of EU countries, including the United Kingdom, have the right to travel, live and work within other EU countries, as free movement is one of the four founding principles of the EU.[201] Campaigners for remaining say that EU immigration has had positive impacts on the UK's economy, citing that the country's growth forecasts are partly based upon continued high levels of net immigration.[200] The Office for Budget Responsibility also claim that taxes from immigrants boost public funding.[200] The Leave campaign believes reduced immigration would ease pressure in public services such as schools and hospitals, as well as giving British workers more jobs and higher wages.[200] According to official Office for National Statistics data, net migration in 2015 was 333,000, which was the second highest level on record, far above David Cameron's target of tens of thousands.[202][203] Net migration from the EU was 184,000[203] The figures also showed that 77,000 EU migrants who came to Britain were looking for work.[202][203]
The possibility that the UK's smaller constituent countries could vote to remain within the EU but find themselves withdrawn from the EU has led to discussion about the risk to the unity of the United Kingdom.[204] Scotland's First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon, has made clear that she believes that a second independence referendum will "almost certainly" be demanded by Scots if the UK votes to leave the EU but Scotland does not.[205] The First Minister of Wales, Carwyn Jones, has said: "If Wales votes to remain in [the EU] but the UK votes to leave, there will be a... constitutional crisis. The UK cannot possibly continue in its present form if England votes to leave and everyone else votes to stay".[206]
There is concern that the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), a proposed trade agreement between the United States and the EU, would be a threat to the public services of EU member states.[207][208][209][210] Jeremy Corbyn, on the Remain side, said that he pledged to veto TTIP in Government.[211] John Mills, on the Leave side, argued that UK could not veto TTIP because trade pacts were decided by Qualified Majority Voting in the European Council.[212]
There was debate over the extent to which the European Union membership aids security and defence in comparison to the UK's membership of NATO and the United Nations.[213] Security concerns over the union's free movement policy were raised too, because people with EU passports are unlikely to receive detailed checks at border control.[214]
Debates, Q&A sessions and interviews
A debate was held by The Guardian on 15 March 2016, featuring the leader of UKIP Nigel Farage, Conservative MP Andrea Leadsom, the leader of Labour's "yes" campaign Alan Johnson and former leader of the Liberal Democrats Nick Clegg.[215]
Earlier in the campaign, on 11 January, a debate took place between Nigel Farage and Carwyn Jones, who was at the time the First Minister of Wales and leader of the Welsh Labour Party.[216][217] Reluctance to have Conservative Party members argue against one another has seen some debates split, with Leave and Remain candidates interviewed separately.[218]
The Spectator held a debate hosted by Andrew Neil on 26 April, which featured Nick Clegg, Liz Kendall and Chuka Umunna arguing for a remain vote, and Nigel Farage, Daniel Hannan and Kate Hoey arguing for a leave vote.[219] The Daily Express held a debate on 3 June, featuring Nigel Farage, Labour MP Kate Hoey and Conservative MP Jacob Rees-Mogg debating Labour MPs Siobhain McDonagh and Chuka Umunna and businessman Richard Reed, co-founder of Innocent drinks.[220] Essex TV produced a documentary named 'Is Essex IN or OUT' released on 20 June, featuring Boris Johnson, local public figures and various members of the public from Essex.[221] Andrew Neil presented four interviews ahead of the referendum. The interviewees were Hilary Benn, George Osborne, Nigel Farage and Iain Duncan Smith on 6, 8, 10 and 17 May respectively.[222]
The scheduled debates and question sessions included a number of question and answer sessions with various campaigners.[223][224] and a debate on ITV held on 9 June that included Angela Eagle, Amber Rudd and Nicola Sturgeon, Boris Johnson, Andrea Leadsom, and Gisela Stuart.[225]
EU Referendum: The Great Debate was held at Wembley Arena on 21 June and hosted by David Dimbleby, Mishal Husain and Emily Maitlis in front of an audience of 6,000.[226] The audience was split evenly between both sides. Sadiq Khan, Ruth Davidson and Frances O'Grady appeared for Remain. Leave was represented by the same trio as the ITV debate on 9 June (Johnson, Leadsom and Stuart).[227] Europe: The Final Debate with Jeremy Paxman was held the following day on Channel 4.[228]
Voting, voting areas and counts
Voting took place from 0700 BST until 2200 BST (0600 to 2100 BST in Gibraltar) in 41,000 polling stations across 382 voting areas, with each polling station limited to a maximum of 2,500 voters.[229] The referendum will be held across all four countries of the United Kingdom, as well as in Gibraltar, as a single majority vote. The 382 voting areas are grouped into twelve regional counts and there will be separate declarations for each of the regional counts.
In England, as happened in the 2011 AV referendum, the 326 districts will be used as the local voting areas and the returns of these will then feed into nine English regional counts. In Scotland the local voting areas will be the 32 local councils which will then feed their results into the Scottish national count, and in Wales the 22 local councils will be their local voting areas before the results are then fed into the Welsh national count. Northern Ireland will, as was the case in the AV referendum, be a single voting and national count area although local totals by Westminster parliamentary constituency area will be announced. Gibraltar will be a single voting area and its result will be fed into the South West England regional count.[229]
The following table shows the breakdown of the voting areas and regional counts that will be used for the referendum.[229]
Country | Counts and voting areas |
---|---|
United Kingdom | Referendum declaration; 12 regional counts; 382 voting areas |
Constituent countries | Counts and voting areas |
---|---|
England | 9 regional counts; 326 voting areas |
Northern Ireland | National count and single voting area 18 local totals |
Scotland | National count; 32 voting areas |
Wales | National count; 22 voting areas |
British Overseas Territory | Voting area |
---|---|
Gibraltar | Single voting area (regional count: South West England) |
Result
As chairperson of the Electoral Commission, the Chief Counting Officer (CCO) will be Jenny Watson, who will announce the final result of the referendum (combining all 12 regional counts from across the UK and Gibraltar) in Manchester on 24 June 2016.[229]
Just after closing time (10pm) the UKIP leader concedes defeat for the "leave" side, based on a poll done during the day.[230]
Choice | Votes | % |
---|---|---|
Remain | 191,404 | 52.8 |
Leave | 171,270 | 47.2 |
Valid votes | 362,674 | 99.94 |
Invalid or blank votes | 204 | 0.06 |
Total votes | 362,878 | 100.00 |
Registered voters/turnout | 46,499,537[46] | 67.7% |
Leave : TBD (TBD%) |
Remain : TBD (TBD%) | ||
▲ |
Results by regional count
Results so far:
Region | Turnout | Remain votes | Leave votes | Remain % | Leave % |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
East Midlands | |||||
East of England | |||||
London | |||||
North East England | 66.2% | 117,334 | 125,992 | 44.7% | 55.3% |
North West England | |||||
Northern Ireland | 57.4% | 32,064 | 8,905 | 78.3% | 21.7% |
Scotland | 67.8% | 21,880 | 14,569 | 60.5% | 39.5% |
South East England | |||||
South West England & Gibraltar | 81.4% | 20,125 | 1,444 | 76.2% | 23.8% |
Wales | |||||
West Midlands | |||||
Yorkshire and the Humber |
See also
- United Kingdom withdrawal from the European Union - documents the actual procedure for withdrawing
- Endorsements in the United Kingdom European Union membership referendum, 2016
Notes
- ^ The terms Brexit and Brixit were apparently first coined in June 2012; Brixit was first used by a columnist in The Economist, while Brexit was first used by a British nationalist group. The terms were probably inspired by the word Grexit, shorthand for Greek withdrawal from the eurozone. The term Brexit first became a widely used buzzword in 2013.[5]
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{{cite news}}
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ignored (|url-access=
suggested) (help) - ^ Littlewood, Mark. "The winner of the Brexit Prize provides a blueprint for an open, independent Britain". Conservative Home. Retrieved 21 April 2014.
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{{cite news}}
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ignored (|name-list-style=
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Further reading
- George, Stephen (January 2000). "Britain: anatomy of a Eurosceptic state". Journal of European Integration. 22 (1). Taylor and Francis: 15–33. doi:10.1080/07036330008429077.
{{cite journal}}
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(help)CS1 maint: postscript (link) - Usherwood, Simon (March 2007). "Proximate factors in the mobilization of anti‐EU groups in France and the UK: the European Union as first‐order politics". Journal of European Integration. 29 (1). Taylor and Francis: 3–21. doi:10.1080/07036330601144177.
{{cite journal}}
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(help)CS1 maint: postscript (link) - Emerson, Michael (April 2016). "The Economics of a Brexit". Intereconomics. 51 (2). Springer Science+Business Media: 46–47. doi:10.1007/s10272-016-0574-2.
{{cite journal}}
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