m →Forecasting: close ref |
William M. Connolley (talk | contribs) this is just silly: rm |
||
Line 25: | Line 25: | ||
In 2007, Armstrong made headlines by challenging Al Gore to a $20,000 bet on global warming.<ref name="nydn">http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/2008/03/02/2008-03-02_penn_prof_still_hot_to_tackle_al_gore_on.html</ref><ref>http://www.redstate.com/vladimir/2009/08/29/in-10-years-it-will-be-warmer-wanna-bet/</ref><ref name="spo"/> He has also testified before Congress on flaws in forecasts of polar bear populations.<ref name="scon"/> |
In 2007, Armstrong made headlines by challenging Al Gore to a $20,000 bet on global warming.<ref name="nydn">http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/2008/03/02/2008-03-02_penn_prof_still_hot_to_tackle_al_gore_on.html</ref><ref>http://www.redstate.com/vladimir/2009/08/29/in-10-years-it-will-be-warmer-wanna-bet/</ref><ref name="spo"/> He has also testified before Congress on flaws in forecasts of polar bear populations.<ref name="scon"/> |
||
Armstrong has been called "one of the 25 most famous professors teaching today"<ref name="cstat">http://collegestats.org/articles/2010/02/25-most-famous-college-professors-teaching-today/</ref>, and in 2010, CollegeStats.com called him one of the "hottest, smartest, widely talked about professors" in America.<ref>http://www.collegedegree.com/library/college-choice/55-of-the-hottest-college-professors</ref> |
|||
Armstrong is the founder of the election forecasting site ''Pollyvote'',<ref name="tng"/> and co-founder<ref>http://www.advertisingprinciples.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=37&Itemid=14</ref> of the site advertisingprinciples.com, which in 2004, won the MERLOT award for best business education site.<ref name="merl">http://taste.merlot.org/MERLOTAwards/2004awards.html</ref> |
Armstrong is the founder of the election forecasting site ''Pollyvote'',<ref name="tng"/> and co-founder<ref>http://www.advertisingprinciples.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=37&Itemid=14</ref> of the site advertisingprinciples.com, which in 2004, won the MERLOT award for best business education site.<ref name="merl">http://taste.merlot.org/MERLOTAwards/2004awards.html</ref> |
||
Line 42: | Line 40: | ||
<!-- Commented out because image was deleted: [[File:PrinciplesOfForecasting.jpg|thumb|[http://www.forecastingprinciples.com/handbook.html Principles of Forecasting]|100px]] --> |
<!-- Commented out because image was deleted: [[File:PrinciplesOfForecasting.jpg|thumb|[http://www.forecastingprinciples.com/handbook.html Principles of Forecasting]|100px]] --> |
||
Professor Armstrong is the author of ''Long-Range Forecasting'', |
Professor Armstrong is the author of ''Long-Range Forecasting'', the most frequently cited book on forecasting methods,<ref name="cstat"/> and ''Principles of Forecasting'', a book considered "the bible for forecasters".<ref>Journal of Marketing Research, XXXIX (2003)</ref> He is a co-founder of the ''Journal of Forecasting'', the ''International Journal of Forecasting'', the ''International Symposium on Forecasting'', and [http://www.forecastingprinciples.com/ forecastingprinciples.com]. He is a co-developer of new methods including [http://www.forecastingprinciples.com/paperpdf/Rule-based%20Forecasting%20Development%20and%20Validation.pdf rule-based forecasting], [http://www.forecastingprinciples.com/paperpdf/Decomposition%20by%20Causal%20Forces.pdf causal forces for extrapolation], simulated interaction, [http://marketing.wharton.upenn.edu/documents/research/INTFOR3581%20-%20Publication%2015.pdf structured analogies], and the [http://www.forecastingprinciples.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=24&Itemid=102/PDFs/13KeysbyArmstrong&Cuzan.pdf index method]. He has also developed the forecasting audit and provided evidence on the proper use of [http://marketing.wharton.upenn.edu/ideas/pdf/armstrong2/armstrong-errormeasures-empirical.pdf error measures]. In 1996, he was selected as one of the first six Honorary Fellows by the International Institute of Forecasters. |
||
One of his findings is the [[Seer-Sucker Theory]].<ref>http://www.forecastingprinciples.com/paperpdf/seersucker.pdf Seer-Sucker Theory</ref> |
One of his findings is the [[Seer-Sucker Theory]].<ref>http://www.forecastingprinciples.com/paperpdf/seersucker.pdf Seer-Sucker Theory</ref> |
Revision as of 22:27, 17 April 2010
J. Scott Armstrong | |
---|---|
Born | March 26, 1937 |
Nationality | American |
Alma mater | MIT Carnegie Mellon Lehigh University |
Scientific career | |
Fields | Marketing |
Institutions | The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania |
J. Scott Armstrong (born March 26, 1937), Ph.D., is an author, forecasting and marketing expert[1][2][3], and a professor of Marketing at the Wharton School of University of Pennsylvania. Known for his work on forecasting, Armstrong is the author of several works, including the most frequently cited book on forecasting[4][5]. He is credited with developing several new forecasting methods, and is the developer of Seer-Sucker theory[2]
In 2007, Armstrong made headlines by challenging Al Gore to a $20,000 bet on global warming.[6][7][3] He has also testified before Congress on flaws in forecasts of polar bear populations.[4]
Armstrong is the founder of the election forecasting site Pollyvote,[2] and co-founder[8] of the site advertisingprinciples.com, which in 2004, won the MERLOT award for best business education site.[9]
In 1996, he was inducted as one of the first six fellows of the International Institute of Forecasters.[10] He has founded several academic journals, including the International Journal of Forecasting, [11], the leading journal in the field.[12]
Education and background
Armstrong received his B.A. in applied science (1959) and his B.S. in industrial engineering (1960) from Lehigh University. In 1965, he received his M.S. in industrial administration from Carnegie-Mellon University. He received his Ph.D. in management from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 1968.[13]
He has taught in Thailand, Switzerland, Sweden, New Zealand, Australia, South Africa, Argentina, Japan, and other countries.[citation needed]
Forecasting
Professor Armstrong is the author of Long-Range Forecasting, the most frequently cited book on forecasting methods,[5] and Principles of Forecasting, a book considered "the bible for forecasters".[14] He is a co-founder of the Journal of Forecasting, the International Journal of Forecasting, the International Symposium on Forecasting, and forecastingprinciples.com. He is a co-developer of new methods including rule-based forecasting, causal forces for extrapolation, simulated interaction, structured analogies, and the index method. He has also developed the forecasting audit and provided evidence on the proper use of error measures. In 1996, he was selected as one of the first six Honorary Fellows by the International Institute of Forecasters.
One of his findings is the Seer-Sucker Theory.[15]
- He was a founder and editor of the Journal of Forecasting,[16] and a founder of the International Journal of Forecasting, and the International Symposium on Forecasting.[citation needed]
- Armstrong has applied his findings about combining forecasts to political forecasting. It provided an accurate forecast of the 2004 U.S. presidential election.[17][self-published source?][citation needed]
- Armstrong examined the methods used by the IPCC to make projections. He claims that the IPCC and climate scientists have ignored the scientific literature on forecasting principles.[3][18][19] Armstrong wrote:
- When we inspected the 17 [forecasting] articles, we found that none of them referred to the scientific literature on forecasting methods.
- It is difficult to understand how scientific forecasting could be conducted without reference to the research literature on how to make forecasts. One would expect to see empirical justification for the forecasting methods that were used. We concluded that climate forecasts are informed by the modelers’ experience and by their models—but that they are unaided by the application of forecasting principles. (page 1015) [1]
- Armstrong extended a Global Warming Challenge to Al Gore in June 2007,[20][6] in the style of the Simon-Ehrlich wager. Each side was to place $10,000 ($20,000 total) in trust, with the winner being determined by future temperature change. Gore has so far ignored the challenge.[21]
Marketing and advertising
In 1989, a University of Maryland study ranked Professor Armstrong among the top 15 marketing professors in the U.S. based on study using peer ratings, citations, and publications.[22] He serves or has served on Editorial positions for the Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, the Journal of Business Research, Interfaces, and other journals. He was awarded the Society for Marketing Advances Distinguished Scholar Award for 2000.
Armstrong's works are frequently cited; his "first-author" citation rate currently averages over 200 per year.[22]
Armstrong has received the MERLOT Award for Exemplary Online Learning Resources as "Best Internet Site in Business Education" for 2004.[9]
Books
- Long-Range Forecasting (ISBN 978-0-47-103002-7)
- Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners (ISBN 978-0-79-237930-0)
- Persuasive Advertising forthcoming 2010, Palgrave Macmillan. Details at AdPrin.com.
Papers
Forecasting
- K.C. Green, J. Scott Armstrong & A. Graefe (2007), "Methods to Elicit Forecasts from Groups: Delphi and Predition Markets Compared", in Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, 8, 17-20.
- Fred Collopy, J. Scott Armstrong (1992), "Rule-Based Forecasting: Development and Validation of an Expert Systems Approach to Combining Time Series Extrapolations", Management Science, 38 (10), 1394-1414.
- J. Scott Armstrong, Fred Collopy, J. Thomas Yokum (2005), "Decomposition by Causal Forces: A Procedure for Forecasting Complex Time Series", International Journal of Forecasting, 21, 25-36.
- J. Scott Armstrong, Fred Collopy (1992), "Error Measures for Generalizing about Forecasting Methods: Empirical Comparisons", International Journal of Forecasting, 8, 69-80.
Marketing
- J. Scott Armstrong, Terry S. Overton (1977), "Estimating Nonresponse Bias in Mail Surveys", Journal of Marketing Research 14, 396-402.
- J. Scott Armstrong (1991), "Prediction of Consumer Behavior by Experts and Novices", Journal of Consumer Research, 18 (September), 251-256.
Scientific methods
- J. Scott Armstrong, Robert J. Brodie, Andrew G. Parsons (2001), "Hypotheses in Marketing Science: Literature Review and Publication Audit", Marketing Letters, 12 (2),171-187.
- J. Scott Armstrong, Ruth A. Pagell (2003), "Reaping Benefits from Management Research: Lessons from the Forecasting Principles Project", Interfaces, 33 (6), 89-111.
In the news
- Armstrong, J. Scott. "Improving Learning at Universities: Who is Responsible?", "University of Pennsylvania Alamanac", December 14, 2004. Accessed May 10, 2007.
- Kranish, Michael. "Flaws are found in validating medical studies", "Boston Globe", August 15, 2005. Accessed May 10, 2007.
- Surowiecki, James. "In Praise of Third Place", The New Yorker, December 4, 2006. Accessed May 10, 2007.
- Hume, Brit. "Is Al Gore Willing to Put His Money Where His Mouth Is?", FOX News July 6, 2007. Accessed July 9, 2007.
- Duffy, Michael. "Chorus does not justify climate prophecies", Sydney Morning Herald, July 7, 2007. Accessed July 9, 2007.
External links
- AdvertisingPrinciples.com – provides useful knowledge about persuasion through advertising as a set of evidence-based principles.
- ForecastingPrinciples.com – resources on forecasting.
- PollyVote.com – resource for scholars and practitioners interested in forecasting elections and other political events.
- Dr. Scott Armstrong on Climate Forecasting - Part I - First of a three-part series.
References
- ^ http://www.sueddeutsche.de/wissen/199/305169/text/
- ^ a b c http://blogs.wsj.com/numbersguy/grading-the-forecasts-of-experts-182/
- ^ a b c http://www.spiked-online.com/index.php?/site/printable/3533/
- ^ a b http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/05/080508132549.htm
- ^ a b Cite error: The named reference
cstat
was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ a b http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/2008/03/02/2008-03-02_penn_prof_still_hot_to_tackle_al_gore_on.html
- ^ http://www.redstate.com/vladimir/2009/08/29/in-10-years-it-will-be-warmer-wanna-bet/
- ^ http://www.advertisingprinciples.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=37&Itemid=14
- ^ a b http://taste.merlot.org/MERLOTAwards/2004awards.html
- ^ http://forecasters.org/fellows.html
- ^ http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6V92-4KB10X0-1&_user=10&_coverDate=12/31/2006&_alid=1298065543&_rdoc=5&_fmt=high&_orig=search&_cdi=5886&_sort=r&_docanchor=&view=c&_ct=5681&_acct=C000050221&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=10&md5=1d0ee3dc7746e481d25c64a172fa26eb
- ^ http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/505555/description#description
- ^ http://www.jscottarmstrong.com
- ^ Journal of Marketing Research, XXXIX (2003)
- ^ http://www.forecastingprinciples.com/paperpdf/seersucker.pdf Seer-Sucker Theory
- ^ (Journal of Forecasting, 1,1982, p. 1-2)
- ^ PollyVote.com
- ^ "Principles of Forecasting - Public policy" (PDF). Forecastingprinciples.com. Retrieved 2010-04-16.
- ^ http://ff.org/images/stories/sciencecenter/armstrong_presentation.pdf
- ^ Global warming challenge
- ^ Hume, Brit (2007-06-27). "One Expert Is Willing to Bet Money Al Gore Is Wrong About Global Warming - Brit Hume | Special Report". FOXNews.com. Retrieved 2010-04-16.
- ^ a b "J. Scott Armstrong, Professor of Marketing - The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania". Marketing.wharton.upenn.edu. 2008-11-18. Retrieved 2010-04-16.