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=== Speculation === |
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[[File:Major russian gas pipelines to europe.png|thumb|Major existing and planned natural gas pipelines supplying [[Russia in the European energy sector|Russian gas to Europe]] in 2021, including the [[Yamal–Europe pipeline]] through Belarus and Poland and the [[Urengoy–Pomary–Uzhhorod pipeline|Brotherhood pipeline]] through Ukraine.]] |
[[File:Major russian gas pipelines to europe.png|thumb|Major existing and planned natural gas pipelines supplying [[Russia in the European energy sector|Russian gas to Europe]] in 2021, including the [[Yamal–Europe pipeline]] through Belarus and Poland and the [[Urengoy–Pomary–Uzhhorod pipeline|Brotherhood pipeline]] through Ukraine.]] |
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Since the explosions pundits have speculated on whether Russia, the United States, Ukraine special forces or Poland are behind the attack. In defense of the US theory pundits such as in the United States, such as [[Tucker Carlson]], have pointed to the US administration's hostility to Nord Stream 2 and President Biden and Victoria Nuland's respective threats to discontinue the Nord Stream pipeline if Russia invaded Ukraine.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.foxnews.com/transcript/tucker-carlson-really-happened-nord-stream-pipeline|title=Tucker Carlson: What really happened to the Nord Stream pipeline?|date=28 September 2022|website=Fox News}}</ref>{{unreliable source|date=October 2022}}<ref name="auto1">{{Cite web|url=https://euroweeklynews.com/2022/10/02/former-advisor-to-head-of-pentagon-claims-us-or-uk-attacked-nord-stream-pipelines/|title=Former advisor to head of Pentagon claims US or UK attacked Nord Stream pipelines|first=Chris|last=King|date=2 October 2022}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web|url=https://euroweeklynews.com/2022/09/28/watch-on-february-7-2022-us-president-joe-biden-threatened-to-end-the-nord-stream-2-pipeline/|title=On February 7, 2022, US President Joe Biden threatened to 'end' the Nord Stream 2 pipeline|first=Chris|last=King|date=28 September 2022}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.npr.org/2022/02/07/1078953858/biden-says-the-nord-stream-2-pipeline-wont-move-ahead-if-russia-invades-ukraine|title=Biden says the Nord Stream 2 pipeline won't move ahead if Russia invades Ukraine|first=Alana|last=Wise|date=7 February 2022|via=NPR}}</ref>{{original research inline|date=October 2022}}<ref>[https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/09/28/tucker-carlson-nord-stream/]</ref> The view that the US is likely behind the attacks is also shared by retired U.S. Army Colonel and former US government advisor [[Douglas Macgregor]].<ref name="auto1"/> |
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The Swedish and Danish Prime Ministers have both been unwilling to speculate on who was responsible for the incidents.<ref>{{cite news | title=Sabotage of gas pipelines a wake-up call for Europe, warn officials | url=https://www.ft.com/content/ad885fea-035f-4b93-98e7-c75da2c308f8 | publisher=Financial Times | date=28 September 2022 | access-date=28 September 2022 | archive-date=28 September 2022 | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220928094144/https://www.ft.com/content/ad885fea-035f-4b93-98e7-c75da2c308f8 | url-status=live }}</ref> A researcher from the [[Royal Danish Defence College]] argued that Russia would be the one to benefit from more disturbances on the European gas market.<ref>{{Cite web |title=Nord Stream pipeline leaks: What happened, what's the impact? |url=https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/9/27/qa-what-is-known-so-far-about-the-nord-stream-gas-pipeline-leak |access-date=2022-09-28 |website=Al Jazeera |language=en |archive-date=27 September 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220927214122/https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/9/27/qa-what-is-known-so-far-about-the-nord-stream-gas-pipeline-leak |url-status=live }}</ref> |
The Swedish and Danish Prime Ministers have both been unwilling to speculate on who was responsible for the incidents.<ref>{{cite news | title=Sabotage of gas pipelines a wake-up call for Europe, warn officials | url=https://www.ft.com/content/ad885fea-035f-4b93-98e7-c75da2c308f8 | publisher=Financial Times | date=28 September 2022 | access-date=28 September 2022 | archive-date=28 September 2022 | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220928094144/https://www.ft.com/content/ad885fea-035f-4b93-98e7-c75da2c308f8 | url-status=live }}</ref> A researcher from the [[Royal Danish Defence College]] argued that Russia would be the one to benefit from more disturbances on the European gas market.<ref>{{Cite web |title=Nord Stream pipeline leaks: What happened, what's the impact? |url=https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/9/27/qa-what-is-known-so-far-about-the-nord-stream-gas-pipeline-leak |access-date=2022-09-28 |website=Al Jazeera |language=en |archive-date=27 September 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220927214122/https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/9/27/qa-what-is-known-so-far-about-the-nord-stream-gas-pipeline-leak |url-status=live }}</ref> |
Revision as of 00:47, 3 October 2022
![]() Map showing the location of the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 pipelines near Bornholm. The two run close to each other most of the way, but deviate near the sites of the leaks.[1] | |
Date | 26–29 September 2022 |
---|---|
Location | Central Baltic Sea, near Bornholm island |
Coordinates | |
Type | |
Cause | Intentional Sabotage |
Motive | Unknown |
Target | Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 |
First reporter | Nord Stream AG |
Organised by | Unknown |
Property damage |
|
The 2022 Nord Stream gas leaks were a series of explosions and subsequent gas leaks that occurred on the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipelines on 26 September 2022. Both pipeline pairs were built for the purposes of transporting natural gas from Russia to Germany through the Baltic Sea, and are majority owned by Russian state-owned gas company Gazprom. The leaks happened as the Baltic Pipe was being opened for natural gas to come in from the North Sea through Denmark to Poland and are believed to have been caused by intentional sabotage; however, the perpetrators' identities and the motives behind such intentional sabotage remain debated.
Prior to the leaks, the pipelines had not been operating due to disputes between Russia and the European Union in the wake of the invasion of Ukraine, but were filled with natural gas. On 26 September at 02:03 local time (CEST), an explosion was detected originating from Nord Stream 2, a pressure drop in the pipeline was reported and natural gas began escaping to the surface southeast of the Danish island of Bornholm. Seventeen hours later, the same occurred to Nord Stream 1, resulting in three separate leaks northeast of Bornholm.[3][4] All three affected pipes were rendered inoperable. The leaks occurred one day after Poland and Norway opened the alternative Baltic Pipe running through Denmark, bringing in gas from the North Sea rather than from Russia as the Nord Stream pipelines do.[5] The leaks are located in international waters (not part of any nation's territorial sea), but within the economic zones of Denmark and Sweden.[6]
Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said that the leaks were caused by deliberate action, not accidents, and specified that explosions had been recorded.[7] Sweden's Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson said that it likely was sabotage,[8] views also expressed by European Union officials and the secretary general of NATO, Jens Stoltenberg.[9][10] Earlier, several commentators had suggested that the circumstances surrounding the leaks appeared to be suspicious and they had possibly been acts of sabotage.[11][12][13][14] Nord Stream AG, the Gazprom-owned operator of Nord Stream, said the pipelines had sustained "unprecedented" damage in one day.[15]
On 29 September, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov dismissed accusations of Russian sabotage as "predictable, stupid and absurd".[16] On 29 September, President of Russia Vladimir Putin called the emergency at Nord Stream "an unprecedented act of international terrorism".[17][18]
Timeline
The Geological Survey of Denmark said that a seismograph on Bornholm showed two spikes on 26 September: the first at 02:03 local time (CEST) had a magnitude of 2.3 and the second at 19:03 had a magnitude of 2.1.[19] Similar data was provided by a seismograph at Stevns, and by several seismographs in Germany, Sweden (as far away as the station in Kalix), Finland and Norway.[20] The seismic data was characteristic of underwater explosions, not natural events, and showed that they happened near the locations where the leaks were later discovered.[21][19][22] Around the same time, pressure in the non-operating pipeline dropped from 10.50 to 0.70 megapascals (105 to 7 bar), as recorded by Nord Stream in Germany.[23][21][24]
After Germany's initial report of pressure loss in Nord Stream 2, a gas leak from the pipeline was discovered by a Danish F-16 interceptor response unit to the southeast of Dueodde, Bornholm.[25][26] Nord Stream 2 consists of two parallel lines and the leak happened in line A inside the Danish economic zone.[27] Citing danger to shipping, Danish Maritime Authority closed the sea for all vessels in a 5 nautical miles (9.3 km; 5.8 mi) zone around the leak site, and advised planes to stay at least 1,000 m (3,300 ft) above it.[26][28] The pipe, which was not operating, had 300 million cubic metres (11 billion cubic feet) of pressurized gas in preparation for its first deliveries.[29]
An Environmental impact assessment of NS2 was made in 2019. By 2012, corrosion leaks had only occurred in two large pipelines worldwide. Leaks due to military-type acts and mishaps were considered "very unlikely". The largest leak in the analysis was defined as a "full-bore rupture (>80 mm [3.1 in])", for example from a sinking ship hitting the pipeline. Such an unlikely large leak from 54 metres (177 ft) water depth could result in a gas plume up to 15 metres (49 ft) wide at the surface.[30]
For NS2, the pipes have an outer diameter of approximately 1,200 millimetres (48 inches) and a steel wall thickness of 27–41 millimetres (1.1–1.6 in) – thickest at the pipe ingress where operating pressure is 22 megapascals (220 bar) and thinnest at the pipe egress where operating pressure is 17.7 megapascals (177 bar), when transporting gas. To weigh down the pipe (to ensure negative buoyancy), a 60–110-millimetre (2.4–4.3 in) layer of concrete surrounds the steel.[31] Each line of the pipeline was made of about 100,000 concrete-weight coated steel pipes each weighing 24 tonnes (53,000 lb) welded together and laid on the seabed. To facilitate pigging, the pipelines have a constant internal diameter of 1,153 millimetres (45.4 in), according to Nord Stream. Sections lie at a depth of around 80–110 metres (260–360 ft).[23]
![](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/53/Stack_of_pipes_North_Stream_2.jpg/220px-Stack_of_pipes_North_Stream_2.jpg)
Hours after the German office of Nord Stream AG had reported pressure loss in Nord Stream 1, two gas leaks were discovered on that pipeline by Swedish authorities.[22][32] Both parallel lines of Nord Stream 1 are ruptured and the sites of its two leaks are about 6 km (3.7 mi) from each other, with one in the Swedish economic zone and the other in the Danish economic zone.[4][27] On 28 September, the Swedish Coast Guard clarified that the initially reported leak in the Swedish economic zone actually was two leaks located near each other, bringing the total number of leaks on the Nord Stream pipes to four (two in the Swedish economic zone, two in the Danish).[4][33]
While none of the pipelines were delivering supplies to Europe, both Nord Stream 1 and 2 were pressurized with gas.[34]
Danish Defence posted a video of the gas leak on their website which showed that, as of 27 September, the largest of the leaks created turbulence on the water surface of approximately 1 kilometre (0.62 mi) in diameter. The smallest leak made a circle of about 200 metres (660 ft) in diameter.[25] Analysts noted the much larger plumes as an indication that the rupture is very large,[20] compared to a presumed technical leak plume of 15 metres (49 ft).[30]
The SwePol power cable (between Sweden and Poland) passes between two of the leak sites at 500 metres (1,600 ft) distance,[clarification needed] and is being investigated for damage.[35]
Swedish Navy ships were scouting for two days in nearby proximity where Nord Stream 1 and 2 were later subjected to sabotage. The search was carried out between Thursday to Saturday, but on the night of Sunday to Monday, no Swedish ships were at the site.[36][37]
On 1 October, the Danish Energy Agency reported that one of the two pipelines, Nord Stream 2, appeared to have stopped leaking gas as the pressure inside the pipe had stabilized.[38] The following day, the same agency reported that the pressure had stabilized in both Nord Stream 1 pipelines as well, indicating that the leakage had stopped.[39]
The leaks
Pipe | Location | Comment |
---|---|---|
Nord Stream 2 pipe A | exclusive economic zone of Denmark | discovered by a Danish F-16 interceptor response unit to the southeast of Dueodde, Bornholm |
Nord Stream 2 pipe A | exclusive economic zone of Sweden | discovered on that pipeline by Swedish authorities |
Nord Stream 1 pipe A | exclusive economic zone of Sweden | discovered on that pipeline by Swedish authorities |
Nord Stream 1 pipe B | exclusive economic zone of Denmark | discovered on that pipeline by Swedish authorities |
Cause
Sweden's Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson said that it likely was sabotage and also mentioned the detonations.[8] Geological Survey of Denmark said that the tremors that had been detected were unlike those recorded during earthquakes, but similar to those recorded during explosions.[40] The Swedish public service broadcaster SVT reported that measuring stations in both Sweden and Denmark recorded strong underwater explosions near the Nord Stream pipelines. Björn Lund, Associate Professor in Seismology at The Swedish National Seismic Network (SNSN) said "there is no doubt that these were explosions" at an estimated 100-kilogram (220 lb) TNT equivalent.[22] European Union officials blamed sabotage, as did the secretary general of NATO, Jens Stoltenberg, and the Prime Minister of Poland, Mateusz Morawiecki.[9][10][41]
The Kremlin said that it did not rule out sabotage as a reason for the damage to the Nord Stream pipelines.[42] Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman, said: "We cannot rule out any possibility right now. Obviously, there is some sort of destruction of the pipe. Before the results of the investigation, it is impossible to rule out any option."[43][44]
The German newspaper Der Tagesspiegel wrote that the leaks are being investigated whether they may have been caused by targeted attacks by submarine or clearance divers.[45]
Speculation
![](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d7/Major_russian_gas_pipelines_to_europe.png/220px-Major_russian_gas_pipelines_to_europe.png)
Since the explosions pundits have speculated on whether Russia, the United States, Ukraine special forces or Poland are behind the attack. In defense of the US theory pundits such as in the United States, such as Tucker Carlson, have pointed to the US administration's hostility to Nord Stream 2 and President Biden and Victoria Nuland's respective threats to discontinue the Nord Stream pipeline if Russia invaded Ukraine.[46][unreliable source?][47][48][49][original research?][50] The view that the US is likely behind the attacks is also shared by retired U.S. Army Colonel and former US government advisor Douglas Macgregor.[47]
The Swedish and Danish Prime Ministers have both been unwilling to speculate on who was responsible for the incidents.[51] A researcher from the Royal Danish Defence College argued that Russia would be the one to benefit from more disturbances on the European gas market.[52]
The Asia Times reported that the Baltic States, Finland, Ukraine, and the US would potentially benefit from damaging the pipelines, but that for various reasons, it is unlikely any of these countries carried out the sabotage.[53]
Ukrainian presidential advisor Mykhailo Podolyak said it was "a terrorist attack planned by Russia and an act of aggression towards the EU".[43][45]
Andrei Kortunov of the Russian International Affairs Council (a Moscow-based think tank) said it didn't make sense for Russia to be responsible since they own the pipelines. Kortunov argued that if Russia wanted to exert pressure on European gas supplies, it could halt delivery without damaging the infrastructure.[54]
In a widely shared post on Twitter,[55] Polish MEP and former foreign affairs and defence minister Radek Sikorski commented, "Thank you, USA", recalling a joint press conference of United States President Joe Biden and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, during which Biden said the US would put an end to the pipeline if Russia invades Ukraine, despite Olaf Scholz having a long history of support for the project and heavily criticizing the US sanctions and opposition against it since 2019.[56][57][58] Only two weeks after this press conference did Chancellor Scholz pause the certification of Nord Stream 2, citing the situation needed to be reconsidered in light of the imminent invasion of Ukraine.[59][60] Sikorski's post was criticized by many politicians and Polish government spokesman Piotr Müller, who said it was harmful and served Russian propaganda. He later explained he welcomes the pipeline failure that "all Polish governments have protested against" and he comes up with "working hypotheses on who had motives and means for such attack" only in his name.[61]
Spiegel reported that the United States Central Intelligence Agency had warned the German government of a possible sabotage to the pipelines "weeks ago".[62]
CNN reported that European security officials observed Russian Navy support ships nearby where the leaks later occurred on the 26th and 27th of September. One week prior, Russian submarines were also observed nearby.[63]
Investigations
The day after the leaks occurred, the Swedish Police Authority opened an investigation of the incident, calling it "major sabotage". The investigation is conducted in cooperation with other relevant authorities as well as the Swedish Security Service.[64] A similar investigation was opened in Denmark. The two nations were in close contact, and had also been in contact with other countries in the Baltic region and NATO.[8][65] Because it happened within international waters (not part of any nation's territorial sea, although within the Danish and Swedish economic zones), neither the Danish Prime Minister nor the Swedish Prime Minister regarded it as an attack on their nation.[7][8]
Aftermath
On 27 September 2022, European gas prices jumped 12 percent after news spread of the damaged pipelines,[66][67] despite the fact that Nord Stream 1 had not delivered gas since August and Nord Stream 2 had never gone into service.[68]
The Danish energy minister said that the gas leaks were likely to continue for at least a week.[69] According to Swedish authorities, it will likely take one to two weeks before the leaks have stopped and the pipelines can be inspected safely.[70] Nord Stream AG, the operator of Nord Stream, said on 27 September that it was impossible to estimate when the infrastructure would be repaired.[71] Unless rapidly repaired, German authorities stated that the three damaged lines (both lines in Nord Stream 1 and line A in Nord Stream 2) are unlikely to ever become operational again due to corrosion caused by sea water.[1] The Washington Post reported that the incidents are likely to put a permanent end to both Nord Stream projects.[72]
The Danish Navy and Swedish Coast Guard sent ships to monitor the discharge, and keep other vessels away from danger by establishing an exclusion zone of 5 nautical miles (9.3 km; 5.8 mi) around each leak.[71][73] Two of the ships are the Danish Absalon and the Swedish Amfitrite, [sv] which are specially designed to operate in contaminated environments such as gas clouds.[73][74] Vessels could lose buoyancy if they enter the gas plumes, and there might be a risk of leaked gas igniting over the water and in the air, but there were no risks associated with the leaks outside the exclusion zones. In the area, the leaks would only affect the environment where the gas plumes in the water column are located. A greater effect is likely to be the climate impact caused by the large volumes of escaping methane, a greenhouse gas.[23][75] Only 0.25% of the annual capacity of the pipelines equal the total release of methane from all other sources in Sweden in a full year.[76] A Danish official said the gas leaks could emit a CO2 equivalent of 14.6 million tonnes (32 billion pounds), similar to one third of Denmark's total annual greenhouse gas emissions.[77][78] A weather station in Norway logged an unprecedented 400 parts per billion (ppb) increase in atmospheric methane from a base level of 1800 ppb.[79]
President of European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, wrote on Twitter that "Any deliberate disruption of active European energy infrastructure is unacceptable & will lead to the strongest possible response."[80] After the leaks, Norwegian authorities increased the security around their gas and oil infrastructure.[81] As of 29 September 2022, the Yamal–Europe pipeline remains operational and transmission through Ukraine is stable,[82] although there are concerns that Russia may introduce "sanctions against Ukraine's Naftogaz [...] that could prohibit Gazprom from paying Ukraine transit fees [... that] could end Russian gas flows to Europe via the country."[83][84][85][86]
References
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- ^ a b c d "Navigational Warnings and Notices to Mariners". Retrieved 1 October 2022.
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click "Nord Stream 2 - Environmental Impact Assessment, Denmark. South-Eastern Route. April 2019"
- ^ "Nord Stream 2 Public Hearing, presentation" (PDF). Nord Stream 2. 19 June 2019. p. 15. Archived (PDF) from the original on 17 May 2021.
- ^ Ringstrom, Anna; Jacobsen, Stine (27 September 2022). "Sweden issues warning of two gas leaks on Nord Stream 1 pipeline". Reuters. Archived from the original on 27 September 2022. Retrieved 27 September 2022.
- ^ Solsvik, Terje. "Fourth leak found on Nord Stream pipelines, Swedish coast guard says". Reuters. Archived from the original on 29 September 2022. Retrieved 29 September 2022.
- ^ "Mysterious leaks hit Nord Stream pipelines linking Russia and Germany". Deutsche Welle. Archived from the original on 27 September 2022. Retrieved 27 September 2022.
- ^ Nyheter, S. V. T.; Jönsson, Oskar; Wikén, Johan; Jensen Karlsson, Pontus (29 September 2022). "Explosionerna skedde nära svensk-polska elkabeln – specialister inkallade". SVT Nyheter (in Swedish).
- ^ "Svenska marinen hade fartyg på plats före explosionerna". DN.SE (in Swedish). 30 September 2022. Retrieved 30 September 2022.
- ^ "Marinen på plats dagarna före explosionerna". Omni (in Swedish). Retrieved 30 September 2022.
- ^ "Danes: Nord Stream 2 pipeline seems to have stopped leaking". Associated Press. 1 October 2022. Retrieved 1 October 2022.
- ^ "Nord Stream 1 har slutat att läcka gas". Sveriges Radio. 2 October 2022. Retrieved 2 October 2022.
- ^ "Dansk ekspert: Eksplosion målt ved Bornholm svarer til en større bombe fra Anden Verdenskrig" (in Danish). Danmarks Radio. 27 September 2022. Archived from the original on 27 September 2022. Retrieved 27 September 2022.
- ^ Ringstrom, Anna; Jacobsen, Stine (27 September 2022). "Gas leaks in Russian pipelines to Europe stoke sabotage fears". Reuters. Archived from the original on 27 September 2022. Retrieved 27 September 2022.
- ^ Reuters (27 September 2022). "Kremlin: sabotage cannot be ruled out as reason for Nord Stream damage". Reuters. Archived from the original on 27 September 2022. Retrieved 27 September 2022.
{{cite news}}
:|last=
has generic name (help) - ^ a b "Nord Stream: Ukraine accuses Russia of pipeline terror attack". BBC News. 27 September 2022. Archived from the original on 27 September 2022. Retrieved 27 September 2022.
- ^ "Huge Nord Stream pipeline leaks could be sabotage, says Danish PM". POLITICO. 26 September 2022. Archived from the original on 27 September 2022. Retrieved 27 September 2022.
- ^ a b ""Alles spricht gegen einen Zufall": Nord-Stream-Pipelines könnten durch Anschläge beschädigt worden sein". Der Tagesspiegel Online (in German). ISSN 1865-2263. Archived from the original on 27 September 2022. Retrieved 27 September 2022.
- ^ "Tucker Carlson: What really happened to the Nord Stream pipeline?". Fox News. 28 September 2022.
- ^ a b King, Chris (2 October 2022). "Former advisor to head of Pentagon claims US or UK attacked Nord Stream pipelines".
- ^ King, Chris (28 September 2022). "On February 7, 2022, US President Joe Biden threatened to 'end' the Nord Stream 2 pipeline".
- ^ Wise, Alana (7 February 2022). "Biden says the Nord Stream 2 pipeline won't move ahead if Russia invades Ukraine" – via NPR.
- ^ [1]
- ^ "Sabotage of gas pipelines a wake-up call for Europe, warn officials". Financial Times. 28 September 2022. Archived from the original on 28 September 2022. Retrieved 28 September 2022.
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- ^ Bryen, Stephen; Bryen, Shoshana (28 September 2022). "Who gains most from Nord Stream sabotage?". Asia Times. Archived from the original on 28 September 2022. Retrieved 28 September 2022.
- ^ Thomas, Merlyn. "Nord Stream: Sweden finds new leak in Russian gas pipeline". BBC. Archived from the original on 29 September 2022. Retrieved 29 September 2022.
- ^ Radek Sikorski MEP [@radeksikorski] (27 September 2022). "Thank you, USA" (Tweet). Archived from the original on 27 September 2022 – via Twitter.
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has generic name (help) - ^ Reuters (29 September 2022). "Gas flows stable via Yamal pipeline and Ukraine". Retrieved 2 October 2022.
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