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The 2020 Irish general election will be held on Saturday, 8 February 2020. The election was called following the dissolution of the 32nd Dáil by the President, at the request of the Taoiseach Leo Varadkar on 14 January 2020. 159 of 160 Dáil Éireann seats will be contested, with the outgoing Ceann Comhairle being re-elected automatically.
Background
Since May 2016, Fine Gael has been in a minority government with the support of Independent TDs, including the Independent Alliance. It has relied on a confidence and supply agreement with Fianna Fáil.
On 3 December 2019, a motion of no confidence in the Minister for Housing, Planning and Local Government Eoghan Murphy proposed by Catherine Murphy for the Social Democrats was defeated, with 53 votes in favour to 56 votes against and 35 registered abstentions.[1] In January 2020, Independent TD Michael Collins placed a motion of no confidence in the Minister for Health Simon Harris.[2] On 14 January, Taoiseach Leo Varadkar sought a dissolution of the Dáil which was granted by the president.[3] The election was set for Saturday, 8 February.[4]
Electoral system
The 160 members of the Dáil will be elected in 39 multi-member constituencies, each with between three and five seats, using the single transferable vote system in which voters rank candidates on their ballot papers. When the ballot papers are counted, an electoral quota is created by dividing the number of valid votes by the number of seats, plus one.
Any candidate equalling or receiving a number of votes exceeding the quota, after a count, is declared elected at that point.
If fewer candidates reach the quota than the number of seats to be filled, the last-placed candidate is removed (eliminated) from the next count and the second or subsequent preferences on those ballot papers are redistributed until a candidate is elected. If such a candidate now has more votes than the quota, their surplus is given to other candidates in order of ranking on the ballot papers.
This is repeated until sufficient candidates have passed the quota to fill the available seats[5] or where a seat remains to be filled in a constituency and no candidate is capable of achieving a quota as there is nobody left to eliminate for a distribution then the highest place candidate without a quota is deemed elected at that point.[6]
Constituency boundary changes
A Constituency Commission was convened in July 2016 under the provisions of the Electoral Act 1997,[7] with Judge Robert Haughton as chair, to redraw constituency boundaries after publication of initial population data from the 2016 census.[8]
The Commission has some discretion but is constitutionally bound to allow no more than a ratio of 30,000 people per elected member, and is by convention constrained not to breach traditional county boundaries save in rare cases, even if this leads to slight over-representation. The Commission report was released on 27 June 2017. It recommended an increase in the number of TDs from 158 to 160.[9][10] and it further recommended that these members are to be grouped into 39 Constituencies.
The Electoral (Amendment) (Dáil Constituencies) Act 2017, implementing these recommended changes was enacted in December 2017, just before Christmas.[11][12] The election of the 33rd Dáil will therefore be held using the new boundaries, for 160 seats. As the outgoing Ceann Comhairle, Seán Ó Fearghaíl, did not announce that he did not wish to be a member of the 33rd Dáil, he will be returned automatically, and only 159 of the 160 seats will be up for election.
Seats at the dissolution of the Dáil
This is the state of the parties when the 32nd Dáil was dissolved on the 14 January 2020.
Party and alliance forming the 31st government.
Party supporting the 31st government by Confidence and supply agreement
Party | Leader | Seats at dissolution of Dáil | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Teachtaí Dála | Senators | |||
Fine Gael | Leo Varadkar | 47 | 20 | |
Fianna Fáil | Micheál Martin | 45 | 13 | |
Sinn Féin | Mary Lou McDonald | 22 | 6 | |
style="background:Template:Labour Party (Ireland)/meta/color;"| | Labour Party | Brendan Howlin | 7 | 4 |
Solidarity–PBP | Collective leadership | 6 | 0 | |
Green | Eamon Ryan | 3 | 1 | |
Independent Alliance | N/A | 4 | 0 | |
Social Democrats | Catherine Murphy Róisín Shortall |
2 | 0 | |
Inds. 4 Change | Collective leadership | 1 | 0 | |
Aontú | Peadar Tóibín | 1 | 0 | |
Independent politicians in Ireland | N/A | 18 | 14 | |
Ceann Comhairle | N/A | 1 | 0 | |
style="background-color: Template:Vacant/meta/color" | | Vacant | N/A | 1 | 0 |
Total | 158 | 60 |
Retiring incumbents
The following members of the 32nd Dáil are not be seeking re-election.
Campaign
The campaign officially began after the dissolution of Dáil Éireann on 14 January 2020 and will last until polling day on 8 February 2020. It will be held just over a week after the United Kingdom (which includes Northern Ireland) has formally withdrawn from the European Union. The election will take place on a Saturday for the first time since the 1918 election.[31] Leo Varadkar said that the change of day was to prevent school closures (many schools in Ireland are used as polling stations) and to make it easy for third-level students and those working away from home to vote.[32]
Party manifestos and slogans
Party/group | Manifesto (external link) | 2020 Campaign Slogan(s) |
---|---|---|
Fine Gael | "A future to look forward to"[33] | |
Fianna Fáil | "An Ireland for all" (Éire do chách)[33] | |
Sinn Féin | ||
Labour Party | "Building an equal society" | |
People Before Profit[n 5] | https://eco.pbp.ie/ | "Planet Before Profit" |
RISE [n 5] | ||
Solidarity [n 5] | ||
Social Democrats | "Hope for better. Vote for better." | |
Green Party | "Want Green, Vote Green"[34] | |
Aontú | "The political system is broken. Let's fix It." |
Candidates' debates
2019 Irish General Election Debates | |||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Date | Organisers | Moderator(s) | P Present A Absent invitee N Non-inviteee | ||||||||||||||||||
FG Varadkar |
FF Martin |
SF McDonald |
L Howlin |
S-PBP - |
G Ryan |
SD Murphy & Shortall |
A Tóibín |
R - |
Refs | ||||||||||||
style="background:Template:Fine Gael/meta/color;"| | style="background:Template:Fianna Fáil/meta/color;"| | style="background:Template:Sinn Féin/meta/color;"| | style="background:Template:Labour Party (Ireland)/meta/color;"| | style="background:Template:Solidarity-People Before Profit/meta/color;"| | style="background:Template:Green Party (Ireland)/meta/color;"| | style="background:Template:Social Democrats (Ireland)/meta/color;"| | style="background:Template:Aontú/meta/color;"| | style="background:Template:Renua/meta/color;"| | |||||||||||||
22 Jan | VM1 | Pat Kenny | P | P | N | N | N | N | N | N | N | [35] | |||||||||
27 Jan | RTÉ 1 | Claire Byrne | P | P | P | P | P | P | P | N | N | ||||||||||
4 Feb | RTÉ 1 | tbc | P | P | N | N | N | N | N | N | N |
The first leaders debate took place on Virgin Media 1, on 22 January, but was restricted to Leo Varadkar and Micheál Martin.[36] A leaders debate featuring seven party leaders/representatives will take place on RTÉ 1, on Monday 27 January. Another debate is scheduled for 4 February, again on RTÉ 1, and again featuring only Varadkar and Martin. Mary-Lou McDonald, leader of Sinn Féin, has objected to her exclusion, and Sinn Féin have threatened legal action if they are excluded from this debate.[37]
Opinion polls
As methodologies and results differ, even where opinion polls are taken over the same dates, the results of the two most prolific polling companies have been graphed separately hereunder:
Footnotes
- ^ The outgoing Ceann Comhairle will be returned automatically.
- ^ The Constituency Commission's recommendations were enacted in December 2017, increasing the size of the next Dáil to 160 seats.
- ^ The 48 seats for Fine Gael includes the outgoing Ceann Comhairle Seán Barrett, elected in 2011 for Fine Gael, who was returned automatically.
- ^ Seán Ó Fearghaíl was elected as Ceann Comhairle, and is no longer counted as a Fianna Fáil TD.
- ^ a b c People Before Profit, Solidarity and RISE are contesting this election as Solidarity–People Before Profit, but will issue Manifestos in their own right.
Opinion poll sources
References
- ^ "Confidence in the Minister for Housing, Planning and Local Government: Motion (Resumed) [Private Members] – Votes – Dáil Éireann (32nd Dáil) – 3 December 2019". Houses of the Oireachtas. Retrieved 22 December 2019.
- ^ "TD calling for no-confidence vote in Simon Harris". RTÉ News. 9 January 2020. Retrieved 22 January 2020.
- ^ "President signs warrant for the dissolution of the 32nd Dáil". President of Ireland. 14 January 2020. Retrieved 22 January 2020.
- ^ "Minister Murphy makes an order appointing Saturday 8 February as the General election polling day". Department of Housing, Planning and Local Government. 14 January 2020. Retrieved 22 January 2020.
- ^ "Dáil Éireann (House of Representatives)". Inter-Parliamentary Union. Retrieved 24 March 2019.
- ^ "Electoral Act 1992 [Part XIX]". Irish Statute Book. 5 November 1992. Retrieved 15 January 2020.
- ^ "Constituency Commission Established 14 July 2016". Retrieved 17 July 2016.
- ^ "Constituency Commission". www.constituency-commission.ie.
- ^ "Introduction and summary of recommendations" (PDF). Constituency Commission 2011. Retrieved 12 March 2016.
- ^ "Dáil constituencies where no change is recommended" (PDF). Constituency Commission 2011. Retrieved 12 March 2016.
- ^ "Electoral (Amendment) (Dáil Constituencies) Act 2017". Irish Statute Book. 23 December 2017. Retrieved 13 January 2020.
- ^ "The January polls and the Impact of the Constituency Commission 2017 report changes: Constituency-level analysis of the Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI (24th January 2018) and Sunday Times- Behaviour & Attitudes (21st January 2018) opinion polls". Irish Elections: Geography, Facts and Analyses. 26 January 2018. Retrieved 27 January 2017.
- ^ McMorrow, Conor (7 March 2018). "Sinn Féin's Ó Caoláin will not contest next election". RTÉ News. Retrieved 9 March 2018.
- ^ O'Regan, Eilish (13 January 2020). "Dr Michael Harty will not seek re-election as TD". Irish Independent. Retrieved 13 January 2020.
- ^ "Sinn Féin's O'Brien will not contest next general election". RTÉ News. 6 January 2020.
- ^ "Fine Gael's Jim Daly will not contest next general election". RTÉ News. 20 September 2019.
- ^ "Independent TD Tommy Broughan announces retirement from Dáil". The Irish Times. 22 January 2020.
- ^ "Finian McGrath confirms he won't stand in February election". Irish Examiner. 14 January 2020.
- ^ "Maureen O'Sullivan announces she will not run for re-election in Dublin Central". The Irish Times. 16 January 2020.
- ^ "Labour TD Brendan Ryan will not contest general election". RTÉ News. 8 January 2020.
- ^ "Maria Bailey is not seeking re-election to the Dáil". RTÉ News. 22 January 2020.
- ^ "Leo Varadkar's tenure as Taoiseach may soon be over". Irish Examiner. 6 December 2019.
- ^ "Martin Ferris says he will stand down as TD". The Irish Times. Retrieved 19 November 2017.
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(help) - ^ "Michael Noonan to step down as Finance Minister - and won't run again for Dáil". Irish Independent. Retrieved 19 November 2017.
- ^ Mullooly, Ciaran (5 July 2018). "Penrose says he will not contest next general election". RTÉ News. Retrieved 5 July 2018.
- ^ "Adams says he will step down as Sinn Féin President". RTÉ News. 18 November 2017. Retrieved 19 November 2017.
- ^ "Fine Gael in Castlebar begin search for new candidate after Enda Kenny announcement". The Connacht Telegraph. 6 November 2017. Retrieved 28 November 2017.
- ^ "Sligo Leitrim Fine Gael TD wont contest next general election". Shannon Side. Retrieved 28 June 2018.
- ^ "FG's John Deasy will not seek re-election due to health concerns". The Irish Times. 28 November 2017. Retrieved 28 November 2017.
- ^ "John Halligan retires after 30 years in politics". The Irish Times. 15 January 2020. Retrieved 15 January 2020.
- ^ "Election 2020: Saturday voting not a solution for low voter turnout". The Irish Times. 20 January 2020.
The cases of Ireland's very limited experience with Saturday voting to date, which includes the second Nice Referendum in 2002, the Children's Referendum in 2012 and a Tipperary South by-election in 2001, did not enhance voter turnout.
- ^ "Taoiseach explains thinking behind Saturday election". BreakingNews.ie. 14 January 2020.
- ^ a b "It's game on as campaigning begins in Election 2020". RTÉ. Retrieved 14 January 2020.
- ^ @greenparty_ie (16 January 2020). "#WantGreenVoteGreen" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
- ^ "Varadkar Opens Door To Grand Coalition". Irish Examiner. Retrieved 23 January 2020.
- ^ "Personal drug use and a potential grand coalition: The key moments from the first head-to-head TV debate". The Journal. 22 January 2020. Retrieved 23 January 2020.
- ^ O'Connell, Hugh (22 January 2020). "Sinn Féin issues legal letter to RTÉ over debate exclusion". Irish Independent. Retrieved 23 January 2020.