Typhoon2013 (talk | contribs) Tag: Reverted |
m Reverted to revision 987233644 by Destroyeraa (talk): The Australian region and South Pacific are often bundled together |
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| Year=2020 |
| Year=2020 |
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| First storm formed= |
| First storm formed=Season Not Started |
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| Last storm dissipated=Season |
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== Seasonal forecasts== |
== Seasonal forecasts== |
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{{disputed section|date=November 2020}} |
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{{confusing|date=November 2020}} |
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{| class="wikitable" style="float:right" |
{| class="wikitable" style="float:right" |
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|- |
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! colspan=2| |
! colspan=2|Source/Record |
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! [[Tropical |
! [[Tropical Cyclone|Tropical<br>Cyclone]] |
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! [[Severe Tropical Cyclone|Severe<br>Tropical Cyclone]] |
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! [[Tropical cyclone scales#Australia and Fiji|{{abbr|STC|Number of severe tropical cyclones}}]] |
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! Ref |
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! {{abbr|Ref.|Reference}} |
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|- |
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⚫ | |||
| colspan=2|Record high |
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|style="text-align:center;"|[[1983-84 Australian region cyclone season|21]] |
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⚫ | |||
⚫ | |||
|- |
|- |
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⚫ | |||
| colspan=2|Record low |
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|style="text-align:center;"|[[2015-16 Australian region cyclone season|3]] |
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⚫ | |||
⚫ | |||
|- |
|- |
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⚫ | | colspan=2|Average (1969–70 – 2019–20): || 11 || — ||<ref name="Aus TC Outlook">{{Cite web|url=http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/cyclones/australia/archive/20201012.archive.shtml|title=Australian Tropical Cyclone Outlook for 2020 to 2021|date=12 October 2020|publisher=Australian Bureau of Meteorology|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20201012005219/http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/cyclones/australia/|archivedate=12 October 2020|accessdate=12 October 2020}}</ref> |
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| colspan=2|Average (1969–70 – 2019–20) |
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⚫ | |||
⚫ | |||
| colspan=2|NIWA October (135°E—120°W) || 8–10 || >3 ||<ref name="NIWA">{{cite report|url=https://niwa.co.nz/climate/southwest-pacific-tropical-cyclone-outlook/southwest-pacific-tropical-cyclone-outlook-october-2020|title=Southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook – October 2020|publisher=National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research |date=October 2020|accessdate=31 October 2020 }}</ref> |
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⚫ | |||
⚫ | | |
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!Region |
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![[Australian region tropical cyclone#Australian tropical cyclone outlook regions|Region]] |
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! |
!Average<br>number |
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!Chance<br>of more |
!Chance<br>of more |
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!Chance<br>of less |
!Chance<br>of less |
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!Actual<br>activity |
!Actual<br>activity |
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|- |
|- |
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|Overall |
|Overall (90°E — 160°E) |
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|style="text-align:center;"|11 |
|style="text-align:center;"|11 |
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|style="text-align:center;"|66% |
|style="text-align:center;"|66% |
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|style="text-align:center;"|0 |
|style="text-align:center;"|0 |
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|- |
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|Western region |
|Western region (90°E — 125°E) |
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|style="text-align:center;"|7 |
|style="text-align:center;"|7 |
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|style="text-align:center;"|63% |
|style="text-align:center;"|63% |
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|style="text-align:center;"|0 |
|style="text-align:center;"|0 |
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|- |
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|Northwestern sub-region |
|Northwestern sub-region (105°E — 130°E) |
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|style="text-align:center;"|5 |
|style="text-align:center;"|5 |
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|style="text-align:center;"|63% |
|style="text-align:center;"|63% |
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|style="text-align:center;"|0 |
|style="text-align:center;"|0 |
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|- |
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|Northern region |
|Northern region (125°E — 142.5°E) |
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|style="text-align:center;"|3 |
|style="text-align:center;"|3 |
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|style="text-align:center;"|57% |
|style="text-align:center;"|57% |
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|style="text-align:center;"|0 |
|style="text-align:center;"|0 |
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|- |
|- |
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|Eastern region |
|Eastern region (142.5°E — 160°E) |
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|style="text-align:center;"|4 |
|style="text-align:center;"|4 |
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|style="text-align:center;"|67% |
|style="text-align:center;"|67% |
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|style="text-align:center;"|0 |
|style="text-align:center;"|0 |
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|- |
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| Western South Pacific (142.5°E — 165°E) |
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!colspan="5"|Source: Bureau of Meteorology<ref name="Aus TC Outlook"/> |
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⚫ | |||
⚫ | |||
| style="text-align:center;"|40% |
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| style="text-align:center;"|0 |
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⚫ | |||
| Eastern South Pacific<br>(165°E — 120°W) |
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| style="text-align:center;"|6 |
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| style="text-align:center;"|45% |
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| style="text-align:center;"|60% |
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| style="text-align:center;"|0 |
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!colspan="5"|Source: BOM's Season Outlooks for Tropical Cyclones<ref name="Aus TC Outlook"/><ref name="SPOutlook">{{cite web|title=South Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook for 2020 to 2021|accessdate=31 October 2020|date=20 October 2020|publisher=Australian Bureau of Meteorology|url=http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/cyclones/south-pacific/archive/20201020.archive.shtml}}</ref> |
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Ahead of the season starting on 1 November, a number of seasonal outlooks were issued for the region, by various meteorological services including the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM). Each of the outlooks accounted for analogue seasons and the effects of various climate drivers, which included the state of the [[El Niño Southern Oscillation]] (ENSO).<ref name="NIWA"/><ref name="Aus TC Outlook"/> Ahead of the season starting, sea surface temperatures and atmospheric patterns over the equatorial Pacific and the Australian region, indicated that a [[La Nina]] episode had emerged.<ref name="NIWA"/><ref name="Aus TC Outlook"/> This meant that ocean temperatures within the region were near to warmer than average, while temperatures over the central and eastern Pacific were cooler than normal.<ref name="NIWA"/><ref name="Aus TC Outlook"/> |
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The [[Bureau of Meteorology]] issued their tropical cyclone outlook for the 2020–21 season on 12 October 2020. The outlook accounted for the state of the [[El Niño Southern Oscillation]] (ENSO) from July to September 2020.<ref name="Aus TC Outlook"/> Below average sea surface temperatures in the Eastern tropical Pacific Ocean and atmospheric conditions indicated a [[La Niña]] pattern,<ref name="Aus TC Outlook"/><ref name="SPOutlook">{{cite web|title=South Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook for 2020 to 2021|accessdate=9 November 2020|date=20 October 2020|publisher=Australian Bureau of Meteorology|url=http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/cyclones/south-pacific/archive/20201020.archive.shtml}}</ref> and it was declared that a La Niña had emerged on 29 September 2020.<ref name="Aus TC Outlook"/> Meanwhile, ocean temperatures were near to above average in the Southwestern Pacific Ocean,<ref name="SPOutlook"/> close to average to the north and northeast of Australia, and slightly warmer than average to the northwest of the country.<ref name="Aus TC Outlook"/> It was predicted that the La Niña pattern will persist into early 2021,<ref name="Aus TC Outlook"/><ref name="SPOutlook"/> and waters north of Australia and the Southwestern Pacific Ocean will be warmer than average in the coming three months.<ref name="Aus TC Outlook"/><ref name="SPOutlook"/> |
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As a result, the BoM predicted that the region as a whole between 90°E and 160°E, would see an average to a slightly above-average amount of tropical cyclones.<ref name="Aus TC Outlook"/> They also predicted that their self defined Western and Northwestern subregions, both had a 63% chance of experiencing more tropical cyclones than usual.<ref name="Aus TC Outlook"/> In addition, it was thought that the northern and eastern regions had a 57% and 67% chance of seeing more tropical cyclones then average.<ref name="Aus TC Outlook"/> The BoM also issued two seasonal forecasts for their self-defined eastern and western regions of the South Pacific Ocean.<ref name="SPOutlook"/> They predicted that the Western region between 142.5°E and 165°E, had a 60% chance of seeing activity above its average of 4 tropical cyclones.<ref name="SPOutlook"/> The BoM also predicted that the Eastern Region between 165°E and 120°W, had a 45% chance of seeing activity above its average of 6 tropical cyclones.<ref name="SPOutlook"/> |
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In addition to issuing their own seasonal outlooks, the |
In addition to issuing their own seasonal outlooks, the BoM along with New Zealand's MetService, NIWA and the Fiji Meteorological Service (FMS), all contributed towards the Island Climate Update tropical cyclone outlook that was released during October 2020.<ref name="NIWA"/> The outlook called for a near to a below-average number of tropical cyclones for the 2020–21 season, with eight to ten named tropical cyclones, predicted to occur between 135°E and 120°W, compared to an average of just over 10.<ref name="NIWA"/> At least three of the tropical cyclones were expected to intensify further and become severe tropical cyclones, while it was noted that a Category 5 severe tropical cyclone could possibly occur during the season.<ref name="NIWA"/> |
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| {{tcname unused|Seroja}} || {{tcname unused|Teratai}} || {{tcname unused|Anggrek}}||{{tcname unused|Bakung}} || {{tcname unused|Cempaka}} |
| {{tcname unused|Seroja}} || {{tcname unused|Teratai}} || {{tcname unused|Anggrek}}||{{tcname unused|Bakung}} || {{tcname unused|Cempaka}} |
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|- |
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| {{tcname unused|Dahlia}} || {{tcname unused|Flamboyan}} || {{tcname unused|Kenanga}} || {{tcname unused|Lili}} || {{tcname unused| |
| {{tcname unused|Dahlia}} || {{tcname unused|Flamboyan}} || {{tcname unused|Kenanga}} || {{tcname unused|Lili}} || {{tcname unused|Mangga}} |
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Revision as of 11:22, 15 November 2020
2020–21 Australian region cyclone season | |
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Seasonal boundaries | |
First system formed | Season Not Started |
Last system dissipated | Season Not Started |
Seasonal statistics | |
Total fatalities | None |
Total damage | None |
Related articles | |
The 2020–21 Australian region cyclone season is an ongoing period of the year when most tropical cyclones form in the Southern Indian Ocean and Pacific Oceans between 90°E and 160°E. The season officially started on 1 November 2020 and will end on 30 April 2021, however, a tropical cyclone could form at any time between 1 July 2020 and 30 June 2021 and would count towards the season total. During the season, tropical cyclones will be officially monitored, by one of the three tropical cyclone warning centres (TCWCs) for the region which are operated by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, National Weather Service of Papua New Guinea and the Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics. The United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and other national meteorological services including Météo-France will also monitor the basin during the season.
Seasonal forecasts
Source/Record | Tropical Cyclone |
Severe Tropical Cyclone |
Ref | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Record high: | 21 | 12 | ||
Record low: | 3 | 0 | ||
Average (1969–70 – 2019–20): | 11 | — | [1] | |
NIWA October (135°E—120°W) | 8–10 | >3 | [2] | |
Region | Average number |
Chance of more |
Chance of less |
Actual activity |
Overall (90°E — 160°E) | 11 | 66% | 34% | 0 |
Western region (90°E — 125°E) | 7 | 63% | 37% | 0 |
Northwestern sub-region (105°E — 130°E) | 5 | 63% | 37% | 0 |
Northern region (125°E — 142.5°E) | 3 | 57% | 43% | 0 |
Eastern region (142.5°E — 160°E) | 4 | 67% | 33% | 0 |
Western South Pacific (142.5°E — 165°E) | 4 | 60% | 40% | 0 |
Eastern South Pacific (165°E — 120°W) |
6 | 45% | 60% | 0 |
Source: BOM's Season Outlooks for Tropical Cyclones[1][3] |
Ahead of the season starting on 1 November, a number of seasonal outlooks were issued for the region, by various meteorological services including the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM). Each of the outlooks accounted for analogue seasons and the effects of various climate drivers, which included the state of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO).[2][1] Ahead of the season starting, sea surface temperatures and atmospheric patterns over the equatorial Pacific and the Australian region, indicated that a La Nina episode had emerged.[2][1] This meant that ocean temperatures within the region were near to warmer than average, while temperatures over the central and eastern Pacific were cooler than normal.[2][1]
As a result, the BoM predicted that the region as a whole between 90°E and 160°E, would see an average to a slightly above-average amount of tropical cyclones.[1] They also predicted that their self defined Western and Northwestern subregions, both had a 63% chance of experiencing more tropical cyclones than usual.[1] In addition, it was thought that the northern and eastern regions had a 57% and 67% chance of seeing more tropical cyclones then average.[1] The BoM also issued two seasonal forecasts for their self-defined eastern and western regions of the South Pacific Ocean.[3] They predicted that the Western region between 142.5°E and 165°E, had a 60% chance of seeing activity above its average of 4 tropical cyclones.[3] The BoM also predicted that the Eastern Region between 165°E and 120°W, had a 45% chance of seeing activity above its average of 6 tropical cyclones.[3]
In addition to issuing their own seasonal outlooks, the BoM along with New Zealand's MetService, NIWA and the Fiji Meteorological Service (FMS), all contributed towards the Island Climate Update tropical cyclone outlook that was released during October 2020.[2] The outlook called for a near to a below-average number of tropical cyclones for the 2020–21 season, with eight to ten named tropical cyclones, predicted to occur between 135°E and 120°W, compared to an average of just over 10.[2] At least three of the tropical cyclones were expected to intensify further and become severe tropical cyclones, while it was noted that a Category 5 severe tropical cyclone could possibly occur during the season.[2]
Storm names
Bureau of Meteorology
Since the start of the 2008–09 season, there has only been one list that the Bureau of Meteorology have assigned names to tropical cyclones.[4] These monitor all tropical cyclones that form within the Australian region, including any in either TCWC Jakarta's or Port Moresby's area of responsibility. The next 12 names on the naming list are listed here below.
Imogen (unused) | Joshua (unused) | Kimi (unused) | Lucas (unused) | Marian (unused) | Niran (unused) |
Odette (unused) | Paddy (unused) | Ruby (unused) | Seth (unused) | Tiffany (unused) | Vernon (unused) |
TCWC Jakarta
TCWC Jakarta monitors Tropical Cyclones from the Equator to 11°S and from 90°E to 145°E. Should a Tropical Depression reach Tropical Cyclone strength within TCWC Jakarta's Area of Responsibility then it will be assigned the next name from the following list.[4]
Seroja (unused) | Teratai (unused) | Anggrek (unused) | Bakung (unused) | Cempaka (unused) |
Dahlia (unused) | Flamboyan (unused) | Kenanga (unused) | Lili (unused) | Mangga (unused) |
TCWC Port Moresby
Tropical cyclones that develop north of 11°S between 151°E and 160°E are assigned names by the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre in Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea. Tropical cyclone formation in this area is rare, with no cyclones being named in it since 2007.[5] As names are assigned in a random order the whole list is shown below.
Alu (unused) | Buri (unused) | Dodo (unused) | Emau (unused) | Fere (unused) |
Hibu (unused) | Ila (unused) | Kama (unused) | Lobu (unused) | Maila (unused) |
Season effects
Name | Dates | Peak intensity | Areas affected | Damage (US$) |
Deaths | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Category | Wind speed (km/h (mph)) |
Pressure (hPa) | ||||||
Season aggregates | ||||||||
0 systems | Season not yet begun | Unknown | 0 |
See also
- List of Southern Hemisphere cyclone seasons
- Atlantic hurricane seasons: 2020, 2021
- Pacific hurricane seasons: 2020, 2021
- Pacific typhoon seasons: 2020, 2021
- North Indian Ocean cyclone seasons: 2020, 2021
- 2020–21 South–West Indian Ocean cyclone season
- 2020–21 South Pacific cyclone season
References
- ^ a b c d e f g h "Australian Tropical Cyclone Outlook for 2020 to 2021". Australian Bureau of Meteorology. 12 October 2020. Archived from the original on 12 October 2020. Retrieved 12 October 2020.
- ^ a b c d e f g Southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook – October 2020 (Report). National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research. October 2020. Retrieved 31 October 2020.
- ^ a b c d "South Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook for 2020 to 2021". Australian Bureau of Meteorology. 20 October 2020. Retrieved 31 October 2020.
- ^ a b "Tropical Cyclone Operational plan for the South Pacific & Southeast Indian Ocean, 2014 Edition" (PDF). WMO. Retrieved 2016-06-12.
- ^ Gary Padgett (2008). "Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Summary October". Australian Severe Weather. Retrieved 2013-07-01.