Breaking consistency with other articles. If you wanted a chart you could have asked so that consistency was preserved. This entirely breaks any sort of consistency, plus a .png file? Lol Tags: Manual revert Reverted |
CoaxAndBotany (talk | contribs) Undid revision 1131792968 by Impru20 (talk) 1. there was no graph. 2. you are being childish and petty. 3. "consistency" is a vapid term for separate wikipedia pages where the majority do not have graphs. 4. so what if it is a .png Tags: Undo Reverted |
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==Opinion polls== |
==Opinion polls== |
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[[File:2023 Asturian Regional Election.png|center|thumb|1000x1000px|LOESS curve of the polling for the 2023 Asturian Regional Election.]] |
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The table below lists voting intention estimates in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 23 seats are required for an [[absolute majority]] in the [[General Junta of the Principality of Asturias]]. |
The table below lists voting intention estimates in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 23 seats are required for an [[absolute majority]] in the [[General Junta of the Principality of Asturias]]. |
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Revision as of 20:18, 5 January 2023
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The 2023 Asturian regional election will be held on Sunday, 28 May 2023, to elect the 12th General Junta of the Principality of Asturias. All 45 seats in the General Junta will be up for election.
Overview
Electoral system
The General Junta of the Principality of Asturias is the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Asturias, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Asturian Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.[1]
Voting for the General Junta is on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprises all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Asturias and in full enjoyment of their political rights. The 45 members of the General Junta of the Principality of Asturias are elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes—which includes blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Seats are allocated to constituencies, which are established as follows:
- Central District (comprising the municipalities of Aller, Avilés, Bimenes, Carreño, Caso, Castrillón, Corvera de Asturias, Gijón, Gozón, Illas, Las Regueras, Langreo, Laviana, Lena, Llanera, Mieres, Morcín, Noreña, Oviedo, Proaza, Quirós, Ribera de Arriba, Riosa, San Martín del Rey Aurelio, Santo Adriano, Sariego, Siero, Sobrescobio and Soto del Barco).
- Eastern District (comprising the municipalities of Amieva, Cabrales, Cabranes, Cangas de Onís, Caravia, Colunga, Llanes, Nava, Onís, Parres, Peñamellera Alta, Peñamellera Baja, Piloña, Ponga, Ribadedeva, Ribadesella and Villaviciosa).
- Western District (comprising the municipalities of Allande, Belmonte de Miranda, Boal, Candamo, Cangas del Narcea, Castropol, Coaña, Cudillero, Degaña, El Franco, Grado, Grandas de Salime, Ibias, Illano, Muros de Nalón, Navia, Pesoz, Pravia, Salas, San Martín de Oscos, Santa Eulalia de Oscos, San Tirso de Abres, Somiedo, Tapia de Casariego, Taramundi, Teverga, Tineo, Valdés, Vegadeo, Villanueva de Oscos, Villayón and Yernes y Tameza).
Each constituency is allocated an initial minimum of two seats, with the remaining 39 being distributed in proportion to their populations.[2]
The use of the D'Hondt method may result in a higher effective threshold, depending on the district magnitude.[3]
Election date
The term of the General Junta of the Principality of Asturias expires four years after the date of its previous election. Elections to the General Junta ae fixed for the fourth Sunday of May every four years. The previous election was held on 26 May 2019, setting the election date for the General Junta on Sunday, 28 May 2023.[1][2][4]
The president has the prerogative to dissolve the General Junta and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence is in process, no nationwide election is due and some time requirements were met: namely, that dissolution does not occur either during the first legislative session or within the legislature's last year ahead of its scheduled expiry, nor before one year has elapsed since a previous dissolution under this procedure. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the General Junta shall be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called. Any snap election held as a result of these circumstances will not alter the period to the next ordinary election, with elected deputies merely serving out what remains of their four-year terms.[1]
Parliamentary composition
The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the General Junta at the present time.[5]
Groups | Parties | Legislators | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Seats | Total | ||||
Socialist Parliamentary Group | PSOE | 20 | 20 | ||
People's Parliamentary Group | PP | 10 | 10 | ||
Citizens Parliamentary Group | Cs | 4 | 4 | ||
We Can Asturias Parliamentary Group | Podemos | 4 | 4 | ||
Asturias Forum Parliamentary Group | Foro | 2 | 2 | ||
United Left Parliamentary Group | IU/IX | 2 | 2 | ||
Vox Parliamentary Group | Vox | 2 | 2 | ||
Mixed Parliamentary Group | INDEP | 1[a] | 1 |
Parties and candidates
The electoral law allows for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election are required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors need to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they seek election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.[2][4]
Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which will likely contest the election:
Candidacy | Parties and alliances |
Leading candidate | Ideology | Previous result | Gov. | Ref. | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Votes (%) | Seats | ||||||||
PSOE | List |
Adrián Barbón | Social democracy | 35.26% | 20 | [8] | |||
PP | List
|
Diego Canga | Conservatism Christian democracy |
17.52% | 10 | [9] | |||
Cs | List |
Susana Fernández | Liberalism | 13.97% | 5 | [10] [11] | |||
Podemos Asturies |
List
|
Covadonga Tomé | Left-wing populism Direct democracy Democratic socialism |
11.04% | 4 | [12] | |||
IU–IAS | List
|
Ángela Vallina | Socialism Communism |
6.62% | 2 | ||||
Foro | List
|
Adrián Pumares | Regionalism Conservatism |
6.52% | 2 | [13] | |||
Vox | List
|
TBD | Right-wing populism Ultranationalism National conservatism |
6.43% | 2 | [14] |
Opinion polls
The table below lists voting intention estimates in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 23 seats are required for an absolute majority in the General Junta of the Principality of Asturias.
Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Turnout | Lead | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 1][p 2] | 9–15 Dec 2022 | 711 | ? | 33.9 19 |
26.9 15 |
4.5 0/1 |
8.8 3/4 |
6.4 2 |
4.7 0/1 |
10.9 4 |
– | 7.0 |
CIS[b][p 3] | 17 Nov–2 Dec 2022 | 266 | ? | 45.5 | 19.3 | 1.6 | [c] | [c] | 0.5 | 8.4 | 14.9 | 26.2 |
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 4] | 1 Jun–13 Jul 2022 | 231 | ? | 42.1 22 |
19.5 11 |
1.6 0 |
7.8 3 |
6.4 2 |
5.4 2 |
13.0 5 |
– | 22.6 |
Metroscopia/PP[p 5] | 23–29 Jun 2022 | 800 | ? | 33.7 17 |
35.4 19 |
1.0 0 |
8.7 3 |
5.1 2 |
1.6 0 |
11.5 4 |
– | 1.7 |
La Nueva España[p 6][p 7] | 23 Mar–7 Apr 2022 | ? | ? | ? 20/21 |
? 10 |
? 0 |
? 4 |
? 2 |
? 2 |
? 4/5 |
– | ? |
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 8] | 15 Oct–29 Nov 2021 | 1,093 | ? | 41.4 23 |
20.6 11 |
2.1 0 |
8.4 3 |
6.4 2 |
6.5 2 |
11.1 4 |
– | 20.8 |
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 9] | 15 Apr 2021 | 800 | ? | 42.4 22 |
21.5 11 |
4.0 1 |
7.7 3 |
5.2 2 |
5.4 2 |
10.0 4 |
– | 20.9 |
SyM Consulting[p 10] | 27–31 Dec 2020 | 1,276 | 60.6 | 35.8 18 |
16.9 8 |
9.1 4 |
13.9 6/7 |
6.9 3 |
6.4 2 |
8.2 3/4 |
– | 18.9 |
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 11][p 12] | 1 Apr–15 May 2020 | ? | ? | 43.3 23 |
19.6 10 |
7.2 2 |
5.8 2 |
7.2 3 |
5.0 1 |
10.0 4 |
– | 23.7 |
SyM Consulting[p 13][p 14] | 4–6 May 2020 | 1,194 | 62.2 | 43.9 23/24 |
19.8 10 |
6.4 2 |
6.3 2/3 |
6.6 2 |
4.2 1 |
11.1 4 |
– | 24.1 |
November 2019 general election | 10 Nov 2019 | — | 58.1 | 33.3 | 23.2 | 6.7 | [c] | [c] | [d] | 15.9 | 16.0 | 10.1 |
2019 regional election | 26 May 2019 | — | 55.1 | 35.3 20 |
17.5 10 |
14.0 5 |
11.0 4 |
6.6 2 |
6.5 2 |
6.4 2 |
– | 17.8 |
Notes
References
- Opinion poll sources
- ^ "El PSOE volverá a ganar en Asturias con castigo para el gobierno de Barbón". El Mundo (in Spanish). 18 December 2022.
- ^ "ASTURIAS. Encuesta SigmaDos 19/12/2022: IU-IAS 6,4% (2), PODEMOS 8,8% (3/4), PSOE 33,9% (19), FORO 4,7% (0/1), Cs 4,5% (0/1), PP 26,9% (15), VOX 10,9% (4)". Electográfica (in Spanish). 18 December 2022.
- ^ "Macroencuesta sobre tendencias en voto autonómico (Estudio nº 3386. Noviembre-diciembre 2022)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 22 December 2022.
- ^ "AsturPanel (15JL): Barbón baja y pierde la absoluta, pero sigue dominando. El PP de Mallada sube pero se queda sin opciones en el 19%". Electomanía (in Spanish). 15 July 2022.
- ^ "ASTURIAS. Encuesta Metroscopia (interna PP) 17/07/2022: IU-IAS 5,1% (2), PODEMOS 8,7% (3), PSOE 33,7% (17), FORO 1,6%, Cs 1,0%, PP 35,4% (19), VOX 11,5% (4)". Electograph (in Spanish). 17 July 2022.
- ^ "¿Qué pasaría si hubiera elecciones en Asturias? Un partido sube, otro desaparece y la izquierda se mantendría, según una encuesta". La Nueva España (in Spanish). 20 April 2022.
- ^ "A un año vista". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 21 April 2022.
- ^ "ElectoPanel (30N): Barbón conseguiría la absoluta en Asturias y la izquierda alcanzaría los 28 diputados". Electomanía (in Spanish). 30 November 2021.
- ^ "Asturias (15A): sorpasso de Foro a IU y Cs. Barbón pierde la absoluta pero sigue liderando con gran ventaja". Electomanía (in Spanish). 15 April 2021.
- ^ "Estimación Diciembre 2020. Principado de Asturias. Autonómicas 2023". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 7 January 2021.
- ^ "EP (17My): Asturias – absoluta para Barbón". Electomanía (in Spanish). 17 May 2020.
- ^ "MacroPanel Autonómico (17My): 8 gobiernos para PSOE+, 8 para PP+ y 3 para otros+". Electomanía (in Spanish). 17 May 2020.
- ^ "Estimación Mayo 2020. Principado de Asturias. Autonómicas 2023". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 11 May 2020.
- ^ "ASTURIAS. Encuesta SyM Consulting 11/05/2020: IU-IAS 6,6% (2), PODEMOS 6,3% (2/3), PSOE 43,9% (23/24), Cs 6,4% (2), PP 19,8% (10), FORO 4,2% (1), VOX 11,1% (4)". Electograph (in Spanish). 11 May 2020.
- Other
- ^ a b c Ley Orgánica 7/1981, de 30 de diciembre, de Estatuto de Autonomía del Principado de Asturias. Boletín Oficial del Estado (Organic Law 7) (in Spanish). 30 December 1981. Retrieved 14 March 2017.
- ^ a b c Ley 14/1986, de 26 de diciembre, sobre régimen de elecciones a la Junta General del Principado de Asturias. Boletín Oficial del Estado (Law 14) (in Spanish). 26 December 1986. Retrieved 14 March 2017.
- ^ Gallagher, Michael (30 July 2012). "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Trinity College, Dublin. Archived from the original on 2017-07-30. Retrieved 22 July 2017.
- ^ a b Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General. Boletín Oficial del Estado (Organic Law 5) (in Spanish). 19 June 1985. Retrieved 30 January 2020.
- ^ "Organización y funciones. Grupos parlamentarios". General Junta of the Principality of Asturias (in Spanish). Retrieved 14 October 2020.
- ^ Palacio, Marcos (5 May 2022). "Ciudadanos expulsa al diputado Fernández Bartolomé, que se niega a entregar el acta". La Nueva España (in Spanish). Retrieved 31 July 2022.
- ^ Montes, Vicente; Palacio, Marcos (28 July 2022). "La expulsión de Bartolomé del grupo de Cs en la Junta le otorga al final más visibilidad". La Nueva España (in Spanish). Retrieved 31 July 2022.
- ^ "Barbón confirma que se presentará a la reelección" (in Spanish). COPE. 8 September 2022. Retrieved 19 September 2022.
- ^ Montes, Vicente (28 November 2022). "Diego Canga Fano, alto funcionario de la UE, será el candidato del PP a la presidencia de Asturias". La Nueva España (in Spanish). Retrieved 28 November 2022.
- ^ "La periodista Laura Pérez Macho será la portavoz de Ciudadanos en la Junta General" (in Spanish). Oviedo: Europa Press. 26 June 2019. Retrieved 14 October 2020.
- ^ "Ciudadanos confirma a Susana Fernández como nueva portavoz en la Junta General, en sustitución de Laura Pérez Macho" (in Spanish). Oviedo: Europa Press. 1 September 2020. Retrieved 14 October 2020.
- ^ Canga, Pablo (4 November 2022). "Los críticos de Podemos imponen a su candidata, Covadonga Tomé, como cabeza de lista al Principado" (in Spanish). Cadena SER. Retrieved 4 November 2022.
- ^ Villa, Octavio (1 October 2022). "Foro designa a Adrián Pumares candidato a la Presidencia del Principado". El Comercio (in Spanish). Retrieved 3 October 2022.
- ^ Fernández, Daniel (2022-12-17). "Ignacio Blanco no repetirá como candidato de Vox al Principado". El Comercio (in Spanish). Retrieved 2022-12-17.